加密桑娜

Since the drop from 109k, BTC has likely entered a wide range fluctuation mode: first oscillating down to around 90k, then starting the C wave decline, with a target of 63k. It is expected to oscillate in the 63-77k range for 2-3 months before entering the second wave of the bull market acceleration.
Decline logic analysis:
1. Technical aspects and liquidity demand: 63k is an important Fibonacci support level, which also corresponds to a temporary low point in market liquidity.
2. Potential black swan risks:
◦ Escalation of geopolitical conflicts (e.g., expansion of Middle Eastern conflicts)
◦ Changes in trade policies (such as increased tariffs)
◦ Delayed impact of macro data (the delayed shock of tariffs on the economy)

Stablecoin Landscape: USDC's Breakthrough Battle, How Many Opponents Are There?
Recently, everyone has been talking about USDC, but pulling the focus back to the crypto world, the stablecoin battlefield has never lacked fierce competitors:
The USDT Overlord: Market cap of 70 billion +, occupying half the market, constantly controversial yet firmly holding the top seat
USD1 Dark Horse Surprise Attack: Rising with a new protocol, reaching a market cap of 1 billion within 3 months, focusing on a decentralized narrative
Veteran Players Do Not Die: USDe maintains its niche market with cross-chain advantages, and although BUSD has been delisted, there is still demand for user migration
USDC seems to be in the spotlight, but in reality, it faces a triple siege: the liquidity pressure from leading USDT, the mechanism innovations of emerging coins, and the repeated tug-of-war of compliance policies. In this stablecoin war, there is no permanent safe zone, only ongoing offense and defense.

Investment Lessons Learned: 4 Tips to Break Free from the "Chasing Highs and Selling Lows" Death Loop

1. Quick In and Out Trading: Don't talk about patterns, take profits quickly; short-term trading is most afraid of greed — those who say "I'll sell after making 10 points" often end up stuck at the peak. Remember the iron law: set a profit-taking point (like 5%-10%), and clear your position once reached; don't wait for a trend reversal. Recent hot spots rotate quickly; yesterday's leader could become today's laggard, and the money you’ve made is the real money.

2. Early Ambush Strategy: Once you identify a target, go in heavy; don’t play heartbeats trying to catch "high-impact" opportunities? The key is the timing of entry — layout when the project's white paper is just released, and community interest is beginning; don't wait until the media is buzzing. It's like buying Moutai in 2014, not in 2021. Once the logic is confirmed (like a technical breakthrough / favorable policy), decisively build your position and minimize watching the market to avoid being washed out by short-term fluctuations.

3. Mid-Term Operations: Don’t get involved in the "pass the flower" game when the target enters the second wave of the main rise (like the price has doubled); don’t believe the story that "XX can still rise 10 times". At this point, chip game dominance takes over, and K-line trends may diverge from the fundamentals; chasing highs is just handing over the shares to the big players. Recently, many people increased their positions before the plunge of XX coin, suffering from the loss of "second phase PVP".

4. Core Principle: Positioning is more important than entry points; remember the painful lesson: even if you spot a 10x bull stock, insufficient positioning is useless. It is recommended to diversify your strategy: 30% of funds to ambush early targets, 50% for mid-term swings, and 20% kept as cash. This way, you can seize explosive opportunities while avoiding the embarrassment of "having no chips when it rises, and holding a full hand of losses when it falls".

True experts don’t always buy at the lowest point; instead, they continuously make money within the right strategy.

In the past two months, the trend of Bitcoin spot premium reveals the market's lack of buying strength. Although some capital has attempted to enter the market to push prices up, the selling pressure is significant, leading to a gradual depletion of buying power and making it difficult to form a sustained and effective upward trend. In contrast, in the futures market, investors' expectations have shifted from an initial cautious wait-and-see attitude to a more optimistic outlook for future market trends. The number of open contracts and funding rates have increased, indicating a growing optimism in the market regarding future price movements. Overall, the current Bitcoin market is characterized by intense long and short battles, with the fatigue in the spot market standing in stark contrast to the optimism in the futures market. In this situation, the breakout method for Bitcoin price ranges is likely to be dominated by the futures market. Should market sentiment further intensify, there is a possibility of a false breakout driven by futures, followed by a downward price choice, initiating a new round of trend adjustments. Investors need to closely monitor market dynamics and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.

The current mainstream altcoin market is trapped in a double bind: prices have fallen back to the 2022 bear market lows, and exchange trading volumes have shrunk by over 60%, making it difficult for even Bitcoin's safe-haven aura to uplift market sentiment. Behind this gloom is a triple deadlock:

• The funding stagnation dilemma: institutions are shifting towards Bitcoin spot ETFs and stablecoin arbitrage, causing the total value locked (TVL) in altcoin liquidity pools to decrease by 45% month-on-month, while market makers hoard coins but lack the drive to push prices up.

• Retail confidence collapse: There have been no hundredfold coins born for three consecutive months, and chasing highs and selling lows has led to an average account return of -32%, with the psychological shadow of "buying whatever is losing" spreading.

• Narrative vacuum crisis: New concepts like Layer 2 scaling and inscription economy have not met expectations, leading the market into a vicious cycle of "hoarding coins waiting for a bull — coin prices do not rise — selling off to exit."

On-chain data shows that the NVT ratio of mainstream altcoins like ETH and SOL has soared to historic highs, with market cap growth severely diverging from actual trading volume. When even the speculative space for 'betting on a rebound' disappears, altcoins will find it difficult to escape the embarrassing situation of being in a "valuation pit," even if Bitcoin stabilizes at $100,000.

Market warning: Without new narratives injected or favorable policy stimuli, altcoins may enter a "liquidity trap," and investors should be wary of the risk of emotional sell-offs.

Ethereum whale holdings surge but prices do not rise? Selling pressure offsets bullish momentum

On-chain data shows that the number of whale addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH continues to rise, yet the coin price hovers around the $2,500 mark. This divergence of "whales accumulating + stagnant coin prices" reflects the subtle balance of market forces:

Behind the whale accumulation: institutions and large investors are continuously positioning, but the holding period is extended, and no concentrated buying action has formed.

Selling pressure emerges: the outflow and inflow of ETH on exchanges are increasing simultaneously, with retail and small to medium investors taking advantage of the rebound to sell off.

From a technical perspective, ETH faces multiple resistances at $2,500: suppression from the 50-week EMA, RSI indicator divergence, and neutral funding rates in the derivatives market. In this bull market, ETH's price increase lags behind BTC and some Layer 1 tokens, and the ecological narrative (such as the Cancun upgrade and staking economy) has yet to translate into price drivers, leading to a divergence in investor confidence.

Market reminder: The growth of whale holdings is a medium to long-term bullish signal, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the breakout situation at the $2,800 resistance level. If trading volume cannot expand, the consolidation phase may continue.

The core of the trading system: Choosing the right time window doubles your profits
The success or failure of a trading system depends on the time window as a key variable. Different time levels correspond to completely different trading logics:
Short-term trading: 30 seconds, 3 minutes, and 5-minute charts are the main force, suitable for capturing instantaneous fluctuations
Swing trading: Focus on 30-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour charts to grasp medium-term trends
Trend trading: Rely on 4-hour, daily, and weekly charts to pursue large-cycle returns
The choice of time window must fit the trading strategy, rather than being dominated by the eagerness to succeed. Every time frame has profit opportunities, but avoid being greedy - frequent switching of time cycles, conflicting signals will quickly disrupt judgment and lead to operational distortion.
Avoidance Guide: Be wary of "teachers" who promote unconventional time cycles such as 2 hours or 12 hours. Truly mature traders are well versed in the use of basic time frames; those who are keen on creating special cycles are often a reflection of insufficient trading skills.
Find the right time window for yourself, stick to the execution of the strategy, and you can move forward steadily in the trading market.

Analysis of Bitcoin Chip Concentration: The 104,000-105,000 Range is Key
A few days ago, some users inquired about chip concentration: On June 9, BTC chip concentration reached 12%. It was expected to rise to 13-15% in the short term, but when the price rebounded to 110,000 USD, the concentration indicator unusually rose due to a large amount of chips piling up in the 104,000-105,000 USD range (chips are sparse around 110,000).
The current price has returned to the 104,000-105,000 range, and the indicator has turned upward. The pattern shows that if the price remains at or below this range, the concentration will continue to rise and break through the "key threshold," potentially triggering a trend change; if the price rebounds, it will delay the upward pace of the indicator.
Refer to the December 2024 case (as marked by the red shadow in the figure), when the indicator showed a similar turning point during an uptrend. After that, BTC fluctuated within a consolidation range until the concentration reached a high of 16.9%, followed by severe volatility. The current trend still needs to track concentration changes, and it is temporarily impossible to predict a specific time window.

Bitcoin 4 Hour Market: Triangle Fluctuation Key Level 105,500 Determines Direction
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin continues to consolidate in a triangular pattern, with significant support at the lower boundary. Today's focus is on the key level of 105,500 USD:
Break above 105,500 USD: Market strengthens, rebound target looks towards 106,800 USD midpoint
Pressure at 105,500 USD: Bulls weaken, need to be cautious of a drop to 103,000 USD support
Key Reference Points
Upper Resistance: 106,800 USD, 108,400 USD
Lower Support: 103,000 USD, 100,500 USD