Daily share

As we anticipated yesterday, Bitcoin is currently experiencing a 1-hour level rebound that has not yet ended. First, focus on the range of 116000 to 117000. Let's talk about the two topics that everyone is concerned about:

1. Has the daily level rise of Bitcoin ended? Will it proceed to a daily level decline?

Currently, it cannot be determined whether the daily level rise has ended. Although we previously mentioned that if Bitcoin breaks below 112000, it may undergo a daily level correction, this is still a matter of probability. We find that Bitcoin is still trending towards a triple top. The daily level does not show a top divergence; the 2-day level has a top divergence, and the 3-day level has a death cross but no divergence. The indicators are not very favorable, but that does not mean it cannot rise again. Additionally, the 4-hour level still has a potential triple buy.

So looking at it comprehensively, we are currently uncertain whether the daily rise has ended. What we can confirm is that Bitcoin will at least have a secondary high point. If the situation is slightly better, we do not rule out the possibility of returning to around 126000 as we expect.

However, this does not mean that from the end of August to the end of September, Bitcoin will not experience a daily level correction. The current trend is already in the process of a daily level correction, which could end with a secondary high. If the trend is better, the daily level correction will continue to be postponed, followed by another rise before a daily correction.

2. If the daily level of Bitcoin has ended its rise, will Ethereum and some altcoins immediately follow with a sharp decline?

We still need to see if Ethereum can create an independent trend. If Ethereum strongly follows an independent trend, it can briefly decouple from Bitcoin regardless of whether Bitcoin continues to reach new highs, creating a trend towards a historical high. After that, it may follow Bitcoin's plunge for a daily level correction. The market is constantly changing; Ethereum has failed to break 4000 in its last three attempts, but that does not mean it cannot break through and stabilize this time.

Therefore, for now, we cannot be overly pessimistic, otherwise you might get off the bus too early and miss an opportunity. Currently, continue to watch while walking; the market will gradually become clearer as we move along.

BTC short-term

Due to the rapid changes in the short term, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market; this is merely for reference.

1H:

At the 1-hour level, we are currently experiencing a 1-hour level rebound that has not yet ended and can continue to rise. The key is to observe the strength of this 1-hour level rebound. If the strength is significant and breaks 117500, then it may signal the end of the 4-hour level correction, starting a new 4-hour level rise, with the potential to further break through 123218 and reach a new high.

If the short-term 1-hour level rebound lacks strength and cannot break 117500, then there will still be a 1-hour level correction to retest around 112000. After the retest, it will proceed to the next 4-hour level rebound.

15M:

At the 15-minute level, Bitcoin still has a 15-minute level rebound. Be patient and wait for this 15-minute level rebound to materialize, observe the strength of the rebound, and see if it can break 117500.

ETH

Ethereum's 1-hour level rebound has also not ended. We will see if it can break 3740. If it cannot break above, then the short term should see another 1-hour level decline to retest around 3300. If it breaks through 3740, then there may not be another correction.

Currently, Ethereum's daily level is relatively healthy. The 12-hour and daily levels do not show a top divergence, which is different from last December's failure to break 4000. Last time, there were continuous top divergences at the 12-hour and 6-hour levels. Moreover, the market fundamentals do not show significant bearish signals; there was no interest rate cut in July, but the probability of a rate cut in September has now increased to 89%. So I have to wonder whether Ethereum will genuinely follow an independent trend this time. If it can break 4100 before mid-August, the next target should be around 5500 to 6700.

Of course, for now, we cannot be blindly optimistic until we break 4100, because Ethereum has been particularly erratic since 2024, often deviating from the expected patterns.

Trend direction

Weekly level: Direction is up; currently experiencing a new weekly level rise, with an overall target above 150,000.

Daily level: Direction is up; currently undergoing a daily level rebound, with an upward target of around 120,000 to 130,000.

4-hour level: Direction is down; if it does not break 117500, it remains within the 4-hour level decline range.

1-hour level: Direction is up; continue to observe the strength of this 1-hour level rebound.

15-minute level: Direction is up, there will still be a 15-minute level rebound in the short term.