五柳先生

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After breaking 110,000 last night, Bitcoin initiated a 1h level pullback. Structurally, this 1h pullback has not yet ended, and it is currently experiencing a 15-minute level rebound. There may be a small v-shaped rebound followed by another decline. Overall, focus on 104,500 for the 1h level pullback; if this position is broken, it is believed that Bitcoin will start a 4h level pullback.
Similarly, for pullbacks, the 1h level pullback and the 4h level pullback have different time periods and amplitudes. The amplitude of the 4h level pullback is definitely greater than that of the 1h pullback, and the time for the 4h pullback is longer, generally lasting from ten days to half a month.

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Since Bitcoin broke 109800, we are looking for a 1-hour level pullback here. The target for this 1-hour pullback is around 106000. As long as it does not break below 104500, it cannot be determined whether it is already entering a 4-hour pullback. Moreover, if it does not break 104500, there will be another 1-hour level rebound to go back above 110,000. Let's observe further.

BTC medium to long-term.
Weekly:

Weekly level, starting from 15476, 15476~73777 is the first wave of the weekly level upward trend in this bull market, 73777~49000 is the second wave of the weekly level pullback, and then 49000~currently above 110,000 is the third wave of the weekly level upward trend. The third wave of the weekly upward trend has not ended, and I personally expect the final peak to be in the range of 150,000~200,000. Currently, there is still a significant distance to the target area, and the time frame to reach that target area should be after this year's September or October.

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Bitcoin finally broke through 109588 today, once again proving that the high point in January this year is not a historical peak, which aligns with our judgment on the overall trend. However, many people are not happy, for the reason that it is still a bull market for Bitcoin alone. Ask friends around you who hold spot coins, the altcoins they currently hold have not yet returned to break-even and are deeply trapped. This bull market is indeed quite ironic.
Is there no chance for altcoins at all? Personally, I believe there are still opportunities, but it may take longer to brew a big one. If Bitcoin does not drop significantly in the next week, altcoins have a chance to surge again, but if Bitcoin's correction is too large, then it's hard to say. More opportunities for altcoins may come after September in the second half of the year.

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On May 19, the big coin surged to around 107100, followed by a pullback that fell to around 102000. This pullback made us mistakenly think that the big coin had begun a 4-hour level pullback, but in fact, with today's surge above 107000 again, the prediction of a 4-hour level pullback is still very difficult. Therefore, we can only wait for another retest to go long. We will only look for a decline after a definite 4-hour level pullback signal appears.
 
Summary of recent article viewpoints.
On May 11, it was advised to mainly look for long positions on pullbacks. The 4-hour level rebound has not ended, the next target is 107000.

Daily Sharing
Bitcoin experienced a rapid drop yesterday, and then today there was a V-shaped reversal to above 106000, which has left many people confused.
Has this kind of market trend occurred before?
Answer: This kind of trend has occurred frequently in the past. I don't know if everyone often reviews the K-lines from the past year or two. If you frequently look back at the past K-lines, you'll find it's completely normal. Generally, there are two common types of trends that exhibit this kind of movement.
The first type is that the downtrend has not yet been established and is still in a large-level central zone fluctuation. For example, the central zone of 9 upgrades often indicates that the expected 1-hour or 4-hour level has not yet materialized, with occasional single-segment trends appearing in between. The central zone fluctuation may then show certain sub-levels either breaking above or below the central zone, followed by a reversal in the opposite direction. In practice, this translates to frequent door painting and V-shaped reversals.

Daily sharing
Bitcoin finally made another push above 107000 last night, but only reached around 107108, then quickly dropped by 5000 dollars. Overall, the 4h level rebound here has basically ended. Next, we should look for a decline cycle lasting ten days to half a month.
Currently, it belongs to the first 4h level rebound reaching a peak, but this does not mean that the daily level structure has peaked, so after the pullback is nearly complete, there will be another wave of upward movement to test historical new highs. Since 74000, there has been a continuous rise for over 40 days; a drop of about ten days is completely normal and reasonable.

Daily Sharing
Bitcoin retraced to around 92,900 again last night, and then this morning it rebounded to around 95,000, revealing that this is still the essence of central oscillation. From the current perspective, there is still a high probability of continuing to push above 96,000 since the price has not fallen below 92,000. So let's continue to observe. It is advisable to set stop-loss for long positions. If the upward movement goes smoothly, it actually indicates that the short-term rebound is likely to be nearing its end, and the subsequent focus will be on a 4-hour level correction.

BTC
Due to the rapid changes in the market, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes; this is for reference only.

Daily sharing
In the past two days, Bitcoin has been in a small level of fluctuation, stuck in the 93500~95500 range; normally, it still needs a surge to break below 96000. Let's observe to see if it continues to surge to complete this 4h level rebound that started from around 74600. After this 4h level rebound is complete, it is expected to start a 4h level pullback, focusing on around 82000.
ETH is the same; if it breaks below 1850 again, the 4h level rebound structure will be quite perfect. So for now, it's advised to wait and see.

BTC
Due to the rapid changes in the market in the short term, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication; short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes and it is only for reference.

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The large coin is currently undergoing a 1-hour rebound starting from 92800, and the target for the rebound continues to be around 98000. After this 1-hour rebound is complete, it is expected that a 4-hour pullback may begin. Patience is needed to wait for the structure to unfold.
Ethereum is similar here. Although it retraced to 1744 again last night, it does not change the structure of needing to undergo a 1-hour rebound here. Ethereum is waiting to push back up to the 1900~1950 range.
Other altcoins may have the opportunity to push up again in the short term, but after pushing up, it is essential to pay attention to short-term profit-taking as there will be another wave of pullbacks.

Daily sharing
BTC has completed a 1h level pullback from yesterday and the day before today. This pullback is much shallower than expected, but the structure has been completed and has pulled back above 95000. Therefore, it should actually start a new 1h level rebound here. The expected target should be up to around 98500, after which it may end this 4h level rebound.
Of course, if the structure is a bit more complex, it may consolidate the second 1h level center and then push up again. After an expected push up, there should be a 4h level pullback, with a target below around 82000.

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I have things to do today, and I'm afraid I won't have time to update in the evening, so I will make a simple update first. The market is currently not changing much, and today's viewpoint is the same as yesterday's.
The structure of the 1h level pullback for Bitcoin has basically been established, with three internal movements already completed, but the pullback amplitude has not yet reached expectations. Therefore, it is expected that in the short term, it may first oscillate around a 15-minute level center, then continue to drop.
Ether reached a new high this morning. From the structure, a 1h level pullback will definitely occur. So just continue to wait.

Daily sharing
Bitcoin continued to surge above 95,000 last night, reaching a high of 95,758 before pulling back. Currently, a 1-hour pullback is underway, and we will continue to observe the strength of this 1-hour pullback. After the expected pullback, we will need to see another 1-hour level rebound, at which point we will check if the 4-hour level rebound has ended.
Ethereum surged to 1,841 today, and it is also expected to undergo a 1-hour level pullback. Patience is required to wait for this pullback to complete before going long again.

BTC
Due to rapid market changes in the short term, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market; this is merely for reference.

Daily sharing
The big coin has successfully executed a 15-minute level rebound today, also pushing up to 95000, with the highest reaching 95332. The overall expected 1h level rebound from the central zone should be nearing completion, and the short term needs to watch for a 1h level correction. Pay attention to around 88000 for the correction, as long as it does not drop below 86500, it is still the third buy of the central zone, and there will be another 1h level rebound later, focusing on the strength of the next 1h rebound.

BTC Medium to Long-term
Weekly level:

At the weekly level, the big coin is currently still running the third wave of weekly upward movement, starting from around 49000. We have emphasized many times that as long as the big coin does not drop below 74000, the overall weekly upward trend remains unchanged. We expect to see a range of 150,000 to 200,000 after the weekly increase.

Daily sharing
Bitcoin has successfully completed a 15-minute level correction in the short term. We are currently looking to see if there will be another 15-minute level rebound to reach around 95000. It is expected that there will be divergence afterward, leading to a 1-hour level correction. The next 1-hour correction is expected not to break below 86000 temporarily, followed by an upward move for a 1-hour rebound before ending the overall 4-hour level rebound. Therefore, the short term is still within the structure of a 4-hour level rebound, and a short-term long can be taken during corrections.

BTC
Due to the rapid changes in the market, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, and this should only serve as a reference.

Daily Sharing
Bitcoin is continuously extending the central exit phase 1-hour rebound in the short term, currently reaching a high of 94,521. The 1-hour correction will only begin after this rebound structure is completed. What does it mean to wait for the structure to finish? It means waiting for an internal divergence structure to confirm whether the short-term is turning. Without seeing a turning signal, we should continue to watch the rebound.
Many people don't understand and think that seeing a pullback means it will immediately drop, but it's not that easy; it requires a certain process.
On the 4-hour level, Bitcoin has pulled back above 94,000, so it can generally be confirmed that a daily level rebound is about to occur. The first target of the overall rebound is around 100,000, and the second target is 102,000. Before reaching this target, Bitcoin is expected to undergo another 4-hour level correction, with the correction target estimated around 80,000.

Daily sharing
The big pie has reached our expected range of 88,000 to 89,000. Has the short-term move completed? Currently, it may still go up a bit more, but the expected upper space won't be too large. We are at the end of a 4-hour level rebound. There will be a 4-hour level pullback coming out later, and we are looking for a rebound here, not an absolute reversal. So we need to pay attention to the subsequent pullback.
For Ethereum, let's observe it a bit more. It should normally push towards 1,700 again. If it can rebound to this position, the overall trend will be quite perfect. This is not a complete reversal for Ethereum, and there will still be a 4-hour level pullback later.

Daily Update
In fact, the market is still as we expected the day before yesterday, breaking upwards. The pullback yesterday made us somewhat uncertain. Since it chose to break upwards here, it indicates that the short-term is directly moving towards a 4-hour level rebound rather than pulling back before rebounding. This means that after a short-term upward rebound, it will again move down for a 4-hour level pullback.
The current rebound here should not be over yet, and the short-term could continue to rise, focusing on the area around 88000~89000 above. Ethereum here is also an extension of the 4-hour level rebound, and it is expected to reach around 1750 above.

Daily share
Currently, Bitcoin is still fluctuating within the 83000~86000 range. Last night there was an attempt to surge; the price slightly broke below 85500 but failed to stand above 86000. However, today it retested around 84000. So we need to observe whether the lower 83000 can hold. If it holds, we will continue to fluctuate around this range.
As mentioned earlier, if the market continues to fluctuate around the range, it actually has no specific direction. It will eventually change direction, either breaking upward above 86000 to around 88000 or breaking downward below 83000 to around 80000.

Daily sharing
From the current market situation, Bitcoin has not yet completed an upward breakthrough or a downward breakdown. However, the current price is near the upper pressure, so the probability of continuing to break upwards increases. If it surges up to 87000~89000, then next week it may start a new 4-hour level downtrend.
So, how should we view the current market from a trading perspective?
First of all, both long and short positions have opportunities in the short term. If it breaks upwards here, then the long position can actually gain a little. However, the profit expectation will not be too large.

Daily sharing
Bitcoin has maintained oscillation within the range of 83000 to 86000 for about 5 days. During this period, although there were two breakouts above 86000, they were quickly suppressed. The continuous range oscillation has left short-term traders a bit confused, as Bitcoin has not chosen to break upward nor has it directly fallen below 83000. As the oscillation amplitude gradually shrinks, a short-term trend change is about to occur.
Firstly, what we can confirm is that Bitcoin is still within the range of a 4-hour level rebound, which has not yet completed. Therefore, after the short-term trend change, there are essentially two scenarios.