五柳先生

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The upward trend of Bitcoin has finally emerged. Since mid-June, we have firmly believed that the daily rise is not over and will reach 120,000~130,000, and we also firmly believe that Ethereum will break through 3000 to reach 3400. Although there have been some fluctuations in price, the upward trend has ultimately formed. Many people lose their direction amidst Bitcoin's repeated fluctuations and ultimately fall before dawn.
The rise of Bitcoin here is not over; it will continue to extend upward in the short term, so we should remain bullish for now. Don't miss out on the subsequent rise for a small short position. For now, we will continue to wait for Bitcoin to reach the target area before observing when this wave of daily level rise will end.

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Currently, there isn't much to say about the market, and the short-term trend remains unchanged. Bitcoin's earlier rebound at the 15-minute level did not break through 122000 and only reached around 120000 before dropping again. Today during the day, there was actually a 15-minute level pullback, and we will see if a next 15-minute level rebound occurs in the evening to break through 122000.
The recent fluctuations of Bitcoin have caused many people to worry, wondering if the rise of Bitcoin has ended. Personally, I still lean towards the view that the rise of Bitcoin has not ended and will once again surge to new highs. Therefore, it is not yet time to be bearish.

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Currently, the large coin remains within the 1-hour level central oscillation range, or it may also develop into a shallow pullback at the 4-hour level. From the end of the month to early August, the large coin is highly likely to push up again to create a new high. From what can be seen now, the overall funding path in the market is to first concentrate on pulling Bitcoin, and after Bitcoin peaks, the main funds shift to Ethereum and mainstream coins, especially after explosive growth in compliant US coins, the main capital begins to focus on Ethereum and Ethereum-related coins. Currently, Ethereum has been pulled up quite a bit, and the capital has overflowed into some small coins. However, more funds are likely to flow back into Bitcoin now.

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Bitcoin is still in the 1-hour level fluctuation, and here it is expected that the third 1-hour correction will end after a downward retracement. Then we will observe the next 1-hour level rebound to see if it can break out of the center and rise to a new high. Ethereum is expected to also undergo a 1-hour correction, so the 1H down structure is expected to complete.
The overall expectation of the daily level market is still not finished, please be patient.

BTC
Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, and this should only be used as a reference.

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In the market analysis of the past two days, we clearly stated that Ethereum's target of 3400 to 3500 was only our rebound target from two months ago, while the final rebound peak is uncertain, advising everyone not to short for the time being. Additionally, there were tips in the community that if it surpasses 3500, it may reach around 3750. Today, Ethereum rose to 3673, and such strength has indeed not been seen for a long time. The strong rally of Ethereum has led to many altcoins that were slowly rebounding no longer holding back; today many coins surged by 20 to 30 percent, igniting bullish sentiment in the market.

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As we mentioned a few days ago, Bitcoin is currently oscillating around a certain range, continuing to consolidate the 1-hour level central range. It is expected that the oscillation will take some time. After the oscillation is nearly complete, it is expected to push upwards again.
Ethereum has also successfully reached our previously predicted range of 3400~3500 today.

At this position, we have mentioned it for a long time. Today it reached a high of 3480.
Thus, this round of daily-level upward movement has lasted for 3 months from early April to now. Bitcoin has reached our daily target range of 120,000~130,000, and Ethereum has successfully reached our target range of 3400~3500. The overall daily upward trend is gradually perfecting.

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The major coin fell back to our expected range of 115,000 to 116,000 last night, with a minimum point around 115,736. Initially, I expected it could go down further, but it ultimately did not drop. Today it rebounded above 119,000. It should currently be undergoing a 1-hour level rebound. Short-term, let’s see how far this rebound can go; I expect this 1-hour rebound won’t be very strong. This week, the major coin should continue to oscillate within a certain range, making it more likely to build a 1-hour central area.

Ethereum indeed performed as expected yesterday afternoon. During the major coin's oscillation, it experienced an independent increase. However, our entry point was slightly off; we originally planned to buy some at 2930, but the lowest point was just slightly below that, and we missed it. Then last night, it fluctuated, thinking it would pull back again, but it went straight up. We can only wait for new opportunities now. The overall upper target for Ethereum is still around 3400.

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Bitcoin is currently undergoing a 1h level pullback. This 1h pullback is a bit deeper than I expected, but that's okay; the necessary structure will definitely manifest. In the short term, this 1h level decline should continue downwards, focusing on the range of 115000~116000. After the 1h pullback is completed, it is expected that there will likely be a consolidation of a 1h level central area, which will take about three to four days. During this process, Bitcoin will mainly maintain oscillation in the range of 115000~122000, before starting a central departure rise, targeting around 126000. If the next wave of upward momentum is strong, it is not ruled out that it could exceed 130000 slightly.

Daily sharing
Since May 23, regarding Bitcoin's third daily-level rise starting from 74508, our target has consistently been to see the range of 120,000 to 130,000, and we have successfully reached that range.

Everyone should see from the trend direction section of our articles that in the last two months, 'the daily-level upward target is 120,000 to 130,000, and the weekly upward target is above 150,000.' The overall direction and target have remained unchanged. Every day's article reflects this direction and target, indicating that we can accurately grasp the larger trend. The only thing that has been changing is the short to medium-term trends on the 4-hour, 1-hour, and 15-minute levels.

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Bitcoin has little fluctuation over the weekend, maintaining a 15-minute level consolidation. The short-term is expected to surge again to finish this 1-hour level rebound, and then begin a 1-hour level pullback. So this should be a short-term upward continuation, patiently waiting for a new high.
The short-term Ethereum seems to have completed a 1-hour level pullback here, so for now, let's see if it continues to surge and forms the next 1-hour level pullback.
The overall 4-hour level rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum has not ended, so the daily level rise has also not ended.

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Bitcoin rose to 118,869 yesterday and then experienced a certain correction. However, this correction level is still just a 15-minute level correction, and the extent of the correction is not large, roughly around 2,000 USD of oscillation. The expectation here is that there will still be a 15-minute level surge, focusing on around 120,000~121,000. As long as the upward momentum here is not strong, then a 1-hour level correction should occur. However, the correction force will not be too large, and overall, it is still in the process of a 4-hour level rise.
Many people are worried whether the rise is about to end. In fact, for such a large asset like Bitcoin, if the daily level rise ends, it will need to oscillate repeatedly at the top. So for now, don't worry about a sudden reversal; it still needs some time and space. For now, continue to look for bullish positions, and the corrections in between are still small corrections.

Daily sharing
After 48 days, Bitcoin has once again reached a historical high, and the overall trend aligns with our expectations. In May and June, we continuously emphasized that the daily level rise of Bitcoin was not completed, and 111980 was not the peak of the daily level rise. However, many still choose to believe that Bitcoin will drop to 90,000 or even more than 80,000, and thus they short it. But today's rise has given them a strong blow.
There is a misconception here; many people are accustomed to using news and fundamentals to predict market trends. So what were the fundamentals in May and June? Firstly, the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Palestine war were still ongoing. Secondly, Trump's trade war was escalating, threatening to paralyze international trade. Then there's Trump strongly criticizing Powell, threatening to fire him. The Federal Reserve is reluctant to cut interest rates, delaying the rate cut path. Lastly, the conflict with Iran broke out again in June, seemingly escalating towards a third world war.

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Bitcoin has been fluctuating above 107,000 for about a week without falling below this level, and has repeatedly surged above 109,500, but each time quickly fell back down, forming a fluctuation in the range of 107,000 to 110,000. From the 1h level, this is the third upward surge; whether it can break into a new high depends on whether it can break through 110,718. If it can break this key position, then at least the upward space will slowly open up, with a probability of reaching 125,000 exceeding 95%.
Aside from Bitcoin and Ethereum, most other mainstream and altcoins are hovering at low levels. I tend to think there should be a rebound in July. Because Bitcoin will still undergo a daily level correction later, other coins need a rebound to provide some space for the subsequent corrections.

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In yesterday's article, we mentioned that the short-term movements of Bitcoin were quite tangled, with the bulls not being strong enough to push upwards. If it breaks below 108000, it may experience a 1-hour level pullback. Currently, a downward movement has occurred, but we should also note that there is no upward trend established, nor a clear downward trend. Thus, we should continue to view it as an extension of the 1-hour level center fluctuation.
To establish a downward trend, Bitcoin needs to break below 106500. If it breaks below, we can look towards 103000 or nearby 100000. If it maintains above 106500, the probability of seeking an upward breakthrough will be relatively high.

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BTC broke through 109300 early this morning, so we can directly look for a 1-hour level rebound here. However, the current rise seems not very strong, or it could be said that the rise is not decisive enough. In fact, it is quite tangled about whether it will directly break out to a new high, so it might be better to observe more here. If BTC can break through 110718 again, then in the short term, it should be able to create a new upward high.

BTC Short-term
Due to the rapid changes in the short-term market, the article can only make predictions based on market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market, and this is only for reference.

Daily Sharing
The weekend market is mainly sideways and volatile. Structurally, the 1h-level retracement of Bitcoin from 110529 still lacks a downward step back, but if Bitcoin directly breaks through 109300 here, the retracement may end directly.
If Bitcoin has not fallen below 106700 tomorrow night, or directly breaks through 109300 tonight, then it tends to think that Bitcoin may not be a 4h-level retracement, but a continuation of the 1h-level center, and may continue to rush to historical highs in the future.
The big direction has not changed, Bitcoin should continue to hit new highs within a month, and Ethereum at the worst also needs to break 2879 again.

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The market has undergone new changes. Today, we are updating in advance to provide everyone with the latest ideas. Please like the article after reading, thank you!
This year's market has been quite tortuous. It was almost reaching a new high, but it lost momentum at the last moment. A short-term break below 107800 indicates that there has definitely been some change in the trend.
As mentioned in our article last night, the major coin has broken below 108200 in the short term, indicating that a 1-hour level pullback is definitely needed. Therefore, in fact, your short-term long position should definitely set a stop loss at this position. The mid-term long position can consider taking profit around 107800. The main position I personally took long was at 105600, and for Ethereum, it was at 2420. Although it did not take profit at the highest point, the overall profit is still decent. Of course, if the short-term rises again in the middle, finding a position to go long is not as fortunate; it will definitely face the stop loss due to sudden changes in the situation.

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In yesterday's article, we mentioned that if Bitcoin is blocked around 110,500, it may retest 108,800 to consolidate a 15-minute central zone. The actual market aligned with our expectations, peaking last night at 110,529, then it could not go higher and began to drop. Today, it reached a low around 108,500 and is currently rebounding slightly. As long as it does not fall below 107,800, we believe there is still momentum for a short-term increase. The key focus tonight into tomorrow is whether it can break through 110,500 again. If it breaks through, then a new high is stable.
Overall, Bitcoin's performance is slightly better; other cryptocurrencies are relatively weak and prone to significant pullbacks. This indicates that the current market is not prosperous, so this wave of increase in Bitcoin can aim for a new high, while other cryptocurrencies can only be considered as rebounds in a bear market, not an absolute reversal for trading. A truly big market movement may still have to wait until the interest rate cuts at the end of the year.

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Bitcoin has once again surged to around 110,000, and the overall trend is still very much in line with our expectations. Currently, it is undergoing a new 4-hour level increase and is expected to reach a new all-time high. This market trend should normally continue to rise for another week or two, so be patient and wait for the final target position.
Ethereum is the same; it is expected that this wave will once again attempt to reach 3,000, and there is a high probability it will break through to around 3,400, with long positions held at lower levels.
Altcoins and mainstream coins should follow the trend for a rebound, but we cannot say that the altcoin season has arrived; we can only say that there will be a rebound trend. Ultimately, the big movements in altcoins and mainstream coins are still inclined to appear by the end of this year.