Here comes what I wrote about earlier, namely that I assumed we should have at least two reductions of 50 basis points, and one more by the end of the year, not entirely accurate, but the assumptions were almost correct. The market has adjusted to my forecast, although there were discrepancies earlier. Inflation is still not at the target level, but the rise in unemployment poses a greater threat to the economy. The market is already expecting three reductions this year of 25 basis points, and likely starting from the beginning of next year, rates will be held at one level to finally defeat inflation, as the expected reductions will not be due to decreasing inflation but because of job cuts in the labor market in the latest report.
Therefore, my forecasts remain, the bull market continues, but a local correction is to be expected, by the end of the year I anticipate growth and at the beginning of next year, I expect the start of a global bear market.
