Here comes what I wrote about earlier, namely that I assumed we should have at least two reductions of 50 basis points, and one more by the end of the year, not entirely accurate, but the assumptions were almost correct. The market has adjusted to my forecast, although there were discrepancies earlier. Inflation is still not at the target level, but the rise in unemployment poses a greater threat to the economy. The market is already expecting three reductions this year of 25 basis points, and likely starting from the beginning of next year, rates will be held at one level to finally defeat inflation, as the expected reductions will not be due to decreasing inflation but because of job cuts in the labor market in the latest report. Therefore, my forecasts remain, the bull market continues, but a local correction is to be expected, by the end of the year I anticipate growth and at the beginning of next year, I expect the start of a global bear market. #ФРС #биткоин #FOMC
Does anyone know how the bull market should end and the bear market should start by the end of this year if the Fed keeps rates at 4.50% and does not plan to cut even 2 times this year, since the rest of the cuts are planned for next year? This means that starting from the end of the year and continuing into the next year, they will launch the printing press, which means when there will be a lot of cheap money and huge liquidity flowing into the crypto market, a bear market should begin? I see no logic here. Personally, I expected that by this time there would be at least two cuts of 50 basis points each, and one more by the end of the year, and a reverse hike at the end of the year that should have launched the bear market. #ФРС #биткоин #FOMC