Daily share
This market indeed plays with people's mentality. Yesterday, we jokingly said that the bulls were making a desperate effort around 115,700, thinking they were about to initiate a new 1-hour upward movement, but today it has turned into a life-and-death situation for the bulls. The market taught us a lesson: being overly confident is not a good thing. Just yesterday, I firmly stated that Ethereum would definitely break 4000, and today I was proven wrong. In reality, we still need to be more rigorous; trading is like driving fast on a highway—if you relax your vigilance and ignore potential risks, problems are bound to arise.
However, yesterday's performance indeed raised expectations for a new upward movement. Because previously, it had touched key positions and then began to rebound, especially since Ethereum once again broke through the central zone at the 15-minute level, which is very promising for a rebound. But the market did not give the bulls much opportunity and turned downward again.
So, how do we view the current market?
First, it can be clarified that at the 4-hour level and 1-hour level, Bitcoin is currently in the third segment of a downtrend at the 1-hour level within a downtrend at the 4-hour level, but whether it will turn into a downtrend at the daily level is not very clear. In other words, if Bitcoin does not break below 112,000, there is still a chance to continue an upward trend at the daily level.
However, given the current market situation, the overall trend of Bitcoin's daily level upward movement seems to have nearly ended. If there is still a chance for another push, it is likely to be the final wrap-up of the daily upward movement that started from 74,500.
BTC medium to long term
Weekly:
At the weekly level, Bitcoin's weekly upward movement has not seen significant changes. Currently, we are in the third segment of a weekly level upward movement, starting from 49,000, with the final target being in the range of 150,000 to 200,000 by the end of January 2026. Generally, it should be no problem for Bitcoin's spot price to hold above 150,000 without considering intermediate fluctuations. However, it is still recommended to operate in segments as the market fluctuates.
At the daily level:
At the daily level, from 49,000, the range 49,000 to 109,588 is the first upward movement at the daily level, 109,588 to 74,508 is the second downward correction at the daily level, and currently, we are in the third upward movement at the daily level, i.e., from 74,508 to 123,218 is the current upward movement at the daily level. This upward structure at the daily level tends to have reached its end, but it is not yet certain that 123,218 is the peak of the upward movement.
In principle, as long as Bitcoin does not break below 112,000, there is still a chance to push for another high above 123,218. Therefore, we need to place a question mark on the daily trend here. Once this daily upward movement is confirmed to be completed, we lean towards the idea that from August to the end of September, Bitcoin may enter a daily level downtrend, targeting below 100,000. After October, Bitcoin is expected to start a new wave of upward movement to surpass 150,000.
This is our expectation for the daily trend.
If Bitcoin's daily level upward movement peaks, what signals should we look for?
There is about a 95% probability of forming a secondary high point, as shown in the image above. When this secondary high point appears, it will also be the best shorting opportunity for the medium term. Of course, there will definitely be other signals, but we will not elaborate on those here.
4H:
At the 4-hour level, we are currently in a 4-hour level downtrend, and it is temporarily uncertain how far this downtrend will go. We will first focus on 112,000 below; if this level is not broken, there is still a probability of another 4-hour level upward movement to break through 123,218, as indicated by the blue arrow in the image.
If this 4-hour level downtrend breaks below 112,000, we need to look for a daily level downtrend; in that case, we will be in the first segment of a 4-hour level downtrend within the daily downtrend, and there will still be a second segment of a 4-hour level rebound and a third segment of a 4-hour level downtrend.
BTC short term
Due to the rapid changes in the market, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes; this is merely for reference.
1H:
Currently, we are in the third segment of a 1-hour level downtrend, closely monitoring 112,000 below. If it breaks below, it is highly likely to enter a daily downtrend. If it can hold, there may be a short-term opportunity for a 1-hour level rebound over the weekend, focusing on around 118,000 for the rebound.
For the bulls, if they want to see a 4-hour level rebound to reach a new high, they must exert effort in the last two or three days. At least the daily level needs to quickly rebound and regain above 117,500 to possibly avoid a larger level downtrend. A V-shaped reversal must occur; otherwise, the market will be unfavorable for the bulls.
15M:
At the 15-minute level, there should be a 15-minute level rebound tonight; we will see the strength of the rebound. If it cannot even touch 117,000, there will still be a 15-minute level downtrend to extend this 1-hour level downtrend.
ETH
From the short-term structure perspective, Ethereum is stronger than Bitcoin here because Ethereum is still within the range of 1-hour level consolidation and has not yet entered a 4-hour level downtrend. If Ethereum's 1-hour downtrend stays above 3570, it is likely to make another attempt to break the 4000 mark in the next rebound. However, if the 1-hour downtrend breaks below 3570, it may likely expand the level of correction and enter a 4-hour downtrend.
The short-term support levels are 3570 and 3500.
For Ethereum at the daily level, it is currently quite probable that the upward movement at the daily level has not ended. In other words, even if Ethereum undergoes a 4-hour level downtrend in the short term, there is still a probability of another 4-hour level upward movement to create a new high. Unless Ethereum directly breaks below the 3000 mark, the probability of a daily correction will gradually increase.
Then a question arises: if Bitcoin enters a downtrend at the daily level, Ethereum might not synchronize with Bitcoin under certain circumstances and could lead some altcoins to continue rising, resulting in a certain degree of divergence in the market. Then, at the next 4-hour level node, Ethereum and Bitcoin may synchronize again. Of course, it still depends on whether Ethereum can maintain above 3500 in the short term; if it cannot hold, Ethereum will struggle to remain strong.
At the 15-minute level, there should be an opportunity for a 15-minute level rebound tonight; we will see if it can break through 3740. If it cannot break through, there will still be a 15-minute level downtrend to retest the lows.
Trend direction
At the weekly level: the direction is upward; currently, a new weekly level upward movement is in progress, with an overall target of above 150,000.
At the daily level: the direction is upward; currently, a daily rebound is in progress, with the upward target for this daily movement being around 120,000 to 130,000.
At the 4-hour level: the direction is downward; it has already begun a 4-hour level downtrend, and we will see if a short-term V-shaped reversal can end this 4-hour decline.
At the 1-hour level: the direction is downward; if it cannot break through 117,500 in the short term, the 1-hour level downtrend will continue to extend.
At the 15-minute level: the direction is upward; there should normally be a 15-minute level rebound here, depending on the strength.