The recent sharp decline in the market is due to multiple negative factors:
1. Trump's sudden tariff policy, which will impose tariffs on Taiwan, India, South Korea, and several other countries starting August 8, has led to a broad decline in Asian stock markets and a surge in market risk aversion;
2. The Fed's hawkish remarks + rising PCE data have caused the expectation for a rate cut in September to plummet from 65% to 41%.
3. The strengthening dollar has hit crypto assets the hardest, with BTC facing downward pressure.
Today, some analysts in the market pointed out that August is traditionally Bitcoin's "Waterloo," and it could even drop by 100,000! In the past ten years, there have only been three years of gains, and all three occurred a year after halving—perhaps there is still hope for 2025.
My personal view: If this rebound is weak, it will continue to decline, with short-term support at 114K, and the next level at the 112K range. Those without positions can patiently wait for a pullback and not be swayed by short-term fluctuations.
