0731 Evening Market Data Interpretation
Bitcoin Short-Term Trend
In the short term, market trends are mainly driven by retail sentiment, with a high frequency of trading in the spot market. However, whale participation is low, with average order sizes at a 'normal' level, and trading volume in the futures market has cooled a bit, indicating that large funds remain quite cautious.
The upper resistance is at $118,000, and the lower support is at the $110,000 level. If it breaks below, it may trigger a chain liquidation.
The funding situation is somewhat differentiated: there was a net outflow of 4,292 BTC from exchanges in 24 hours, and reserves continue to decline, which is a positive signal for the long term. Short-term bullish leverage sentiment remains, which also increases the potential volatility risk.
Macroeconomic Risks
The Fed's hawkish stance has been suppressing the market: they have kept interest rates unchanged, and Powell has not committed to a rate cut in September, leading to a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity, which has suppressed risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Global trade conflicts have also escalated, with a new round of tariffs from the U.S. raising global supply chain costs, increasing expectations of sticky inflation, which may further delay the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, posing mid-term pressure on the market.
⚠ Must-Watch Events
8.1 8.30 U.S. June Core #PCE Data
8.1 U.S. Non-Farm Employment Data: This is a key indicator for assessing the resilience of the U.S. economy.
8.1 U.S. Tariffs on Non-Agreement Countries Take Effect: Pay attention to the practical impact on commodities and inflation.
🚀 Strategy Recommendations
Aggressive: It's not a good time to chase highs. You can wait for the PCE data to be released; if prices drop sharply to around the $110,000 support area and a stabilization signal appears, then consider lightly entering a long position.
Cautious: I strongly recommend waiting and observing first. The whale ratio on exchanges has already sent a clear warning signal, and macroeconomic uncertainty is particularly high.
For Those with No Positions: Continuing to hold no positions is the best strategy. The market volatility following the Fed's decision, coupled with the upcoming PCE data, provides an excellent observation window. Wait for the macro fog to clear before entering the market.