The 52nd macroeconomic sharing session focuses on current market highlights, providing in-depth analysis around the China-US tariff game, Federal Reserve policy trends, and the technical and fundamental aspects of Bitcoin, offering panoramic references for investors.
This report summarizes the 52nd macro thematic seminar of the WolfDAO community. Friends are welcome to read and share your views. For long-term archiving, you can follow us;
I. Market trading logic switches: The China-US tariff game becomes the core
The current core trading logic in the market has shifted from Federal Reserve policy to the third round of China-US tariff negotiations. After multiple consultations, the tariff negotiations between the US and the EU, Japan, South Korea, and Canada have basically set the tone, with the final focus of the game falling on the world's largest producer—China. Recently, the negotiations have shown an escalating trend:
China has summoned the UK and the US to strengthen regulation in the technical field;
The US has canceled the tax exemption policy for small packages, and some tariff policies have been extended for 90 days, marking a new stage in the negotiation between both parties.
In this context, market sentiment is influenced by negative narratives surrounding tariffs, leading to increased short-term volatility.
II. Bitcoin technicals: Short-term adjustment pressure coexists with medium to long-term potential
From a technical indicator perspective, Bitcoin (BTC) shows characteristics of 'short adjustments with long bull markets':
Daily level: in a bullish adjustment state after a golden cross, there is downward space. Referring to the previous adjustment amplitude, it may dip to $110,700, and if there is room, it may look to $108,000;
Weekly and monthly levels: overall maintaining an upward channel, despite some dullness, the structure remains intact, and the medium to long-term trend has not changed;
Potential risk points: if global liquidity (MR) continues to decline, it may trigger a bullish adjustment at the weekly level, even forming a death cross, with an adjustment target possibly dipping into the $83,000-$88,000 range.
III. Key economic data and policy games: The 'deciding factor' for the short-term market
1. US non-farm data becomes the focus
The US July non-farm employment data, to be released on the evening of August 1, is crucial:
Expecting an increase in employment by 110,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%;
Last month's actual data exceeded expectations (147,000, unemployment rate 4.1%), if this time continues to improve, it will further weaken the Federal Reserve's expectation of a rate cut in September.
Additionally, the US July ISM Manufacturing PMI (expected 49.5) and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (expected 62) also need to be closely monitored, as data divergence may trigger significant market volatility.
2. The policy tug-of-war between the Federal Reserve and Trump
Federal Reserve: Over the past month, it has continued to reduce its holdings of US Treasuries and tighten liquidity, yet market liquidity has instead risen, driven by the Treasury's 'shadow QE' operations;
The Trump administration: By expanding short-term debt issuance and repurchasing long-term debt to lower financing costs, it indirectly achieves quantitative easing while using tariff negotiations as leverage to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates and expand its balance sheet.
Currently, the interest rate swap market indicates a 58.8% probability of no rate cut in September and a 41% probability of a rate cut, with non-farm data potentially breaking this balance.
IV. Global economic pattern: The game between tariff shocks and liquidity easing
1. Tariffs trigger a mild global recession
The tariff game between China and the United States has significantly impacted the global economy:
China's July manufacturing PMI has fallen below 50, entering the contraction zone;
Japan and South Korea's manufacturing sectors continue to shrink, and Canada's GDP is expected to shrink by 1.5% in Q20;
The EU-US trade agreement is interpreted as detrimental to the European economy, and the euro against the dollar fell by 1.2% in a single day, pushing the dollar index into a weekly golden cross, potentially starting a rebound in the short term (target around 106.5).
2. The global easing tide supports long-term liquidity
Despite increased short-term volatility, major global economies are still responding to downward pressures through easing policies:
Germany has introduced unlimited fiscal and military budgets, while China, the EU, the UK, and Canada are simultaneously easing;
The US Treasury's 'shadow QE' continues to exert influence, and global liquidity (MR) is expected to rebound in the medium to long term, providing support for asset prices.
V. Summary: Investment insights under a short bear and long bull pattern
The current market shows characteristics of 'short-term adjustment pressure + long-term upward potential':
Short-term: The China-US tariff game, dollar rebound, non-farm data, and other factors may trigger adjustments in Bitcoin, requiring vigilance against weekly level risks;
Long-term: With global liquidity easing and US fiscal policy providing a floor, Bitcoin is expected to achieve new successes through the fourth golden cross at the weekly level within the daily golden cross channel.
Investors can adjust their strategies by combining technical support levels ($83,000-$88,000) with key data (non-farm, tariff dynamics) to capture medium to long-term opportunities amidst volatility.
