The crypto market is ever-changing, and it is actually difficult to answer this question.
However, a thread said the bear market has three stages, and we are in the second stage. I agree with this assertion. If the first stage is the slow decline of Bitcoin and Ethereum from their peaks, then the Luna depeg event marked the beginning of the second stage. Within the industry, it not only caused significant losses for many ordinary investors, affecting confidence in the market, but also severely impacted many top institutions and CeFi, leading to the current liquidity crisis. Outside the industry, widespread criticism in public opinion, regulatory scrutiny, and the global environment of rising interest rates have brought very negative effects.
Bull markets do not happen overnight, and bear markets do not simply drop to the bottom; there will be repeated rebounds in between. However, the current internal and external environment is not sufficient to support Crypto in breaking out into an independent trend. Nevertheless, as I said, even in a structural bull market, there will be deep corrections. I remain confident in the long-term future of the crypto market; in terms of technology, applications, and talent, Crypto has a better foundation compared to the past. After experiencing a bear market, true gold will still shine.
In a nutshell, four words can summarize: 'Don't mess around.'
I started to engage with Bitcoin culture in 2013 and have experienced two complete bear markets. Overall, at the beginning of a bear market, many people actually just give back the profits from the bull market without incurring significant losses. However, as the bear market deepens, even if Bitcoin only drops 80%, there are many people whose principal has decreased by 99%.
The reason is - 'tossing around'. Human nature is such that we always want to take greater risks to recover what we've lost. In a bull market, everyone actually earns the industry's beta, combined with a bit of luck; not everyone truly masters the wealth code. However, in a bear market, if you still manage your funds according to the aggressive style of the bull market, the results are predictable. Therefore, the bear market is a good opportunity for learning, building, and resting, rather than a battlefield for trying to recover unrealized gains or even doubling down (at least for most people).
Funds in a bear market are incredibly competitive. In the past, smart money might not even look at 100% returns, but now even a 10% pool is worth taking a gamble on, not to mention the general public who do not have much time and energy to invest in Crypto. It is hard to out-compete the top predators in these markets; in a sense, it might even be better to just lie flat.
Speaking of interesting things, my only joy in 2018-2019 was debating with various supporters of Bitcoin's large block technology route. I wrote many articles and blog posts; although at that time everyone had very little BTC (and a single BTC was worth only a few thousand dollars), the entire debate process was very exciting. Everyone made many predictions about what Bitcoin should be like in the future, and these predictions would lead one to develop their own 'worldview' of crypto technology. Subsequent developments would either confirm or refute your judgment, making this process a very good learning experience.
A bear market is a touchstone for testing Crypto projects and also a good opportunity for practitioners to think, learn, and build. Finally, I hope everyone learns more in a bear market and works hard in a bull market, adapting to the cycle to ultimately achieve substantial financial returns.
