分析师卓航

I never worry that BTC will go to zero; many people are afraid to buy because they fear it will go to zero and that the crypto world will disappear.
I think this thing has no endogenous growth demand, so it will go to zero.
My view is that the cryptocurrency market is like the world's toilet; since it has been created, it can only be optimized more and more, it will not disappear.
Once you've used a toilet, can you go back to using paper? Once you're used to takeout, can you, when busy, get used to lining up offline to buy something to drink or eat?
The essence of the cryptocurrency market is an efficient financial trading market; coins are just a type of trading target, and whether the target itself has value is not important.

My real experience - from earning 3 million when I first entered the crypto circle, to going bankrupt and owing 8 million, and finally turning over and making a profit of 10 million with a trading strategy.

1. My blood and tears history in the crypto circle
I entered the circle in the 2017 bull market. Relying on the crazy rise of altcoins, my account once reached 3 million. But greed made me lose my way, frequently
chasing up and killing down, and high-leverage contract operations. Finally, I went bankrupt in the 2018 bear market and had debts of 8 million. During that time, I was almost desperate, but after calming down, I decided to systematically learn trading techniques and summarize a set of strategies that suit me.

现货比特币ETF引领市场复苏，净流入资金达2.2666亿美元
7月24日，美国现货比特币ETF的强劲流入标志着市场动态的重大转变，打破了连续四天的净流出局面。这一激增反映出投资者对受监管的比特币投资的兴趣重燃，这得益于提供简化且安全的投资工具的ETF。富达的FBTC成为主导基金，吸引了超过1亿美元的资金，其次是VanEck的HODL和贝莱德的IBIT，也录得了可观的资金流入。这些数字凸显了机构和散户投资者对比特币ETF作为加密货币市场首选门户的广泛兴趣。
了解现货比特币ETF的战略重要性
现货比特币ETF让投资者能够直接参与比特币的价格波动，而无需承担持有和保障标的资产的复杂风险。其受监管的特性增强了投资者的保护和可及性，尤其对于那些习惯于传统金融工具的投资者而言。通过在主流交易所交易，这些ETF提供了流动性和交易便利性，使更广泛的受众更容易接受比特币投资。这种可及性对于推动比特币的采用并将比特币纳入主流投资组合至关重要，从而促进市场的成熟和稳定。
推动比特币ETF流入的关键因素
流入数据显示，市场竞争激烈，多家发行机构正在利用投资者需求获利。富达旗下的FBTC以1.0658亿美元的流入量领跑比特币现货ETF市场，彰显其在现货比特币ETF市场日益增长的影响力。紧随其后的是VanEck的HODL和贝莱德的IBIT，分别流入4636万美元和3253万美元，展现出其强大的机构支持。Bitwise的BITB和Grayscale的迷你BTC也贡献了显著的流入，反映出投资者对不同基金结构的偏好呈现多元化。这种资金分布凸显了比特币ETF生态系统的不断扩张，以及投资者对这些受监管产品日益增长的信任。
比特币ETF再次流入的市场影响
净流入恢复正值是市场情绪转变的关键指标。持续流入比特币ETF的资金表明机构信心不断增强，并可能转化为比特币价格的上行压力，因为ETF发行商会购买比特币来支持其持有的份额。此外，这些资金流入增强了流动性，并有助于提高比特币市场的价格发现效率。这些资金流入也标志着比特币作为一种合法资产类别的接受度不断提高，这可能会鼓励寻求受监管的数字资产投资的保守投资者和财务顾问进一步参与。
平衡比特币ETF投资的收益与风险
投资比特币ETF具有诸多优势，包括便捷的比特币投资渠道、监管监管以及投资组合多元化的优势。然而，投资者仍需注意其固有风险，例如比特币的价格波动、ETF相关的管理费以及无法直接持有标的资产。监管动态也带来潜在的不确定性，可能影响ETF的运营。透彻了解这些因素，对于根据个人风险承受能力和财务目标做出明智的投资决策至关重要。
影响比特币ETF趋势的更广泛的经济和市场因素
比特币ETF的资金流入受到宏观经济条件复杂相互作用的影响，包括通胀趋势、利率政策和地缘政治发展。近期的比特币减半事件持续影响着长期供应动态和投资者预期。比特币网络的技术进步和主流采用率的提高进一步增强了人们对比特币ETF的信心。这些因素共同为比特币投资产品的持续增长和接受度创造了有利环境。
结论
7月24日，美国现货比特币ETF净流入2.2666亿美元，这是一个关键时刻，扭转了一段时间的资金流出，并表明投资者信心重振。在富达、VanEck和贝莱德等知名发行机构的带动下，这一趋势凸显了机构投资者日益青睐比特币作为主流资产。尽管市场波动和监管风险等挑战依然存在，但比特币ETF流入的积极势头凸显了其在连接传统金融和数字资产生态系统方面的关键作用。投资者和市场参与者应密切关注这些趋势，因为持续的资金流入可能会进一步巩固比特币在多元化投资组合中的地位。
#BTC #ETH #etf #加密市场回调

Chainlink's double bottom breakout marks a bullish reversal
Chainlink's recent price movement has clearly broken out of a long-term downtrend, marked by a double bottom formation above $17.17. LINK trading volume surged to over 31 million, confirming this technical formation and signaling a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. This breakout effectively ended the downward channel that had constrained LINK since early 2025, indicating new upward momentum. As of the time of writing, LINK is trading close to $18.27, maintaining above the 50-day moving average, a key indicator favored by trend traders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from an oversold area, suggesting a healthier price structure with potential for further increases.

BNB's breakout is attributed to strong on-chain fundamentals and market momentum
The recent price surge of BNB is not merely a technical rise but also a reflection of the substantial growth of its blockchain ecosystem. The token recently broke through the critical resistance level of $800, which has served as a price ceiling for nearly three years. This breakthrough is attributed to a significant increase in daily trading volume, which has more than doubled from 4 million transactions to over 14 million, indicating improved network activity and adoption.
Moreover, the decentralized trading volume on the BNB Chain reached an astonishing $190 billion within a month, highlighting strong trading activity and liquidity. These indicators collectively suggest that the rise of BNB stems from genuine demand and network utility, rather than speculative hype.

There are many ways to make money in the cryptocurrency world, such as low-risk arbitrage, new project activities, trading, regular investments, and holding coins.

No matter what your qualifications are, there is always something suitable for you.
For something to grow large, it must have a sufficiently wide benefit.
In simple terms, its threshold must suit the abilities of the majority, allowing various people to make money, which is the premise for expanding the pie.
Those who say the cryptocurrency world is just a scam where money cannot be made fall into two categories: one is that they harbor a rejection of the cryptocurrency world, and the other is simply laziness. There is no third outcome.

More than a decade of experience in the circle, from going bankrupt more than twenty times to stable profits, it has all been a step-by-step journey that I have walked through. This position management method is steady and reliable, and monthly returns can reach 90%. Let's get straight to the point:
1. Divide the funds into five parts, and only enter one-fifth each time! Control a stop loss of 20 points; if you make a mistake once, you only lose 2% of the total. If you make a mistake five times, you will lose 10% of the total. If you are right, set a take profit of more than 50 points.
2. How to further improve the win rate? Simply put, it's about going with the trend! In a downtrend, each rebound is a temptation to buy more; in an uptrend, each drop presents an opportunity! Is it easier to profit from buying the dip or from low buy-ins? You all know it in your hearts!

Many people repeatedly fall into traps in the crypto circle; the problem lies in focusing on just one time frame.

Today, I will discuss my commonly used multi-time frame K-line trading method, which consists of three simple steps: grasp the direction, find the points, and determine the timing.

1. 4-hour K-line: Determines your big directional bias of long or short
This time frame is long enough to filter out short-term noise and clearly see the trend:
• Uptrend: Higher highs and higher lows → Buy on pullbacks
• Downtrend: Lower highs and lower lows → Short on rebounds
• Sideways fluctuation: Price repeatedly moves within a range, which can easily lead to losses; frequent trading is not recommended

Someone asked me: Bro, can you advise me on how to get a step ahead in the cryptocurrency space?
I believe obtaining first-hand information is crucial. Every time I learn something, it's outdated. By the time I find out, it's when the early participants are exiting, making it easy for me to get trapped. So how can I obtain first-hand information?
My answer is to spend money.
Why spend money? Spend money to learn, spend money to make mistakes; in short, spend money to improve yourself. Any action that can lead to elevating your social circle should be pursued, striving to reach that circle.
Today, someone from the cryptocurrency industry sent me information asking me or recommending friends to work for exchanges in Hong Kong or Shenzhen, but the requirement is fluency in English, which I just can't meet, so I can't reach that social circle. If I just happen to be great at English, if I'm still in my twenties, and if I'm in Shenzhen, this could work out, and I might have gone to Shenzhen and entered the circle of working at an exchange. If you are good at English and have a suitable professional background, you might try looking for jobs at exchanges. In this social circle, there are resources that might have the money-making information that suits you.

The width and depth of the cryptocurrency space
Width refers to how much you know. Depth refers to how thoroughly you research.
Width is your insight. Depth is your understanding.
In other fields, if one has width but shallow depth, it is difficult to make money and can even lead to losses because a concrete execution path is needed. Insufficient depth means poor execution or the inability to execute at all.
In the cryptocurrency space, having width and no depth can still lead to making money. Having both width and depth can lead to even greater profits because the execution paths in cryptocurrency are relatively simple.
How does width come about? A person's character is bright, their thinking is open, they are adept at using a large logical framework to analyze problems, they only trust logic without being biased or overly emotional. Such individuals, as they gain more insight, gradually accumulate width.

circle是usdc的发行商，usdc是加密世界的第二大稳定币，第一名是 usdt，稳定币总市值为2500亿刀，usdc占比24%，大概600亿刀。

usdc的去年净利润为16亿刀，9亿刀给了coinbase，扣税后自己只有1.2亿刀。circle目前市值444亿刀。
按照现金流折现来估值那是太高了，根本不能买。那么我们要买circle只能当做成长股来看待了。
稳定币这个赛道，除了炒币，以后用到的范围肯定非常广泛，华尔街那帮人早就计算过了，到2028年大概有2万亿市值的稳定币。
那么circle的市场份额如果不变，那大概是4800亿，那也就是现在的8倍。那每年的净利润预估就是128亿左右。
那28年可预计的利润是128亿，那么现在600亿市值高吗。增长率是800%。peg就是3.18。按照成长股的逻辑来说，peg大于1 那么就是可以买入的。 比如增长到了4800亿不增长了，利润128亿，按照现在的估值来算，市值 444亿刀，那么。pe才3.64倍，所以circle才会涨的这么猛。
如果这个稳定币规模是真的，那3年8倍是可以预计的，circle估值就是3800亿左右。这是业绩带来的，如果加上估值的增幅，那么3年长10倍 不是没有可能。 假设真能实现，那么现在circle的市值在1900亿刀市值以下买入都是合理的，比放银行划算。 当然了前提是这个稳定币规模真能实现。
我这个估算是非常粗糙的估算。里面还有很多细则不得而知，还有usdc的利润 54%是要被coinbase拿走的。所以稳定币法案通过那天coinbase直接涨16%。就是这个利润coinbase可以拿多久，是不是一直可以拿 这个也不得而知。
稳定币用于支付结算真的太好用了，到账迅速，不被拦截。手续费便宜，更直接打通加密世界和现实世界的链接。
#Circle #USDC #USDT #加密市场回调

1. There are always people asking if the 4-year bull and bear cycle in the crypto space still exists. Is this the peak of the bull market? Will there be another big bull market afterwards? Can I still buy now?
First, you need to understand how cycles come about. The transition of the bull and bear cycles in the crypto space is essentially due to changes in the industry market. Behind these market changes is the transformation of supply and demand, which is influenced by changes in human behavior. Those buying at the bottom and making profits will definitely sell, and once they sell, it realizes profits. If there is insufficient demand afterwards, the market will decline. This is human behavior; human nature has not changed over thousands of years. Where there is human nature, there are bull and bear cycles.

Reviewing 4 cold facts about the cryptocurrency world that no one tells you.
1. The cost of averaging down is not calculated the way you think.
Suppose you bought 10,000 U of a coin when it was 10 U, and then it dropped to 5 U, and you bought another 10,000 U. Do you think your average cost is 7.5 U? Wrong, it's actually 6.67 U. Why? Because you bought more coins at 5 U, which brings down the overall average cost. Many people make mistakes in their calculations here, don't be fooled by superficial numbers.
2. Earning 1% every day, turning it into ten times in a year is not dreaming.
If you have 100,000 and only aim for a 1% profit each day, and stop, with 250 trading days in a year, you can achieve 1.32 million through compound interest. If you persist for another year, it will be over ten million. Does it sound outrageous? You can calculate it yourself; this is the power of compound interest. But the real challenge isn't the calculations, it's the discipline of 'taking profits at 1% and walking away.'

One, basic understanding: Understand the three core concepts.

Blockchain: A globally public 'ledger', data is transparent and immutable, the foundation of technologies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Mainstream coins:
Bitcoin (BTC): Digital gold, the first choice for anti-inflation, lower risk for long-term holding.
Ethereum (ETH): Smart contract platform, supports DeFi, NFTs, and other ecosystems.
Key terms:
Gas fee: On-chain transaction fee, confirm real-time rates before transfers.
DeFi/NFT: Decentralized finance and digital asset certificates, recommended to start experiencing from staking and exchange sections.

The alliance is now actively integrating into the crypto space, WEB3.0, and blockchain. This is not just about the integration of technology; more importantly, it's about the integration of ideas, requiring us old data trading people to keep up with the times, otherwise being eliminated is inevitable.
As someone who has not been in the crypto space, I am definitely a newbie and may also become a guinea pig. If you want to continue playing, paying tuition is inevitable, so you must keep learning new knowledge to avoid overpaying. I hope everyone can continuously grow in this process to avoid falling multiple times! Therefore, I am sharing what I have learned that I think is suitable for everyone, hoping you can take fewer detours!

From losing big to making big, summarize 10 iron laws and give all retail investors a piece of advice! If you want to play in the cryptocurrency market for the long term, please carefully read the heartfelt words of this article! Beginners must remember these points to navigate the market smoothly. The cryptocurrency world is full of opportunities and risks, especially for newcomers. Learning how to survive and profit in a highly volatile market is a skill that requires continuous learning and practice.

1. The popular coins in a bull market fall the fastest.
Coins that are heavily speculated, especially those with significant market control, often burst their bubbles quickly. The more they attract a large number of retail investors to chase the price up, the greater the risk. It's like blowing up a balloon; the bigger it gets, the faster it pops. Popular coins in a bull market are often favored by short-term speculators, but they are also the easiest traps to lose everything in.

1. If you haven't learned the logic and understanding of trading coins, try not to trade coins. Buying altcoins or playing contracts, making money in the crypto world through speculation is not feasible. Engaging in arbitrage with information advantages, such as shorting small coins, can earn a few thousand each month, which is achievable. Participating in new token offerings or small-cost investments can also work, and with good luck, one can earn a few thousand. These are essentially mining mentalities.
I have been observing the crypto world for a long time. Those who can become big players and definitely make money are relying on mining and issuing coins. Those who make a lot of money by speculating on coins, how they earn is often based on what others say and show, which is logically unverifiable. The final conclusion boils down to timing and luck, and luck tends to be concentrated among a few people, most likely not you or me.

1. Many people lose money in the crypto world, mainly due to high expectations, such as hoping for 10x or 100x returns in a year, which inherently carries great risks. However, people often get swept up by emotions and forget about the risks, betting everything and ultimately getting cut out, leading to repeated losses that reduce their principal until they suffer a significant loss. If you want to recover your losses, you might try trading contracts or engaging in PVP with low-quality coins, but you will end up losing even more.
You might see others successfully trading contracts and PVP, but their approach is different. They usually start with little money, perhaps 1000 or 500 yuan, and manage to grow it significantly, while you are starting with a substantial asset. The more you play, the more your mentality collapses. Building the right mindset takes one to two years of accumulation, but it can be destroyed in just five minutes with a sudden market crash.

The past cryptocurrency market had a 4-year cycle, moving from bear market to bull market, 48 months in total. The real time for you to make big money during a surge is actually only 2 months, which accounts for only 4% of the entire cycle. Most of the time is spent waiting in boredom.
Many people think the cryptocurrency market is like this: I watch the market day and night, spend time collecting various news, sometimes going long and sometimes short, and only through strenuous analysis can I make money.
If this could earn big money, then look at the hard-working people in the world who work day and night; they pay the most but earn the least. Then you'll understand.

Many people think making money in the crypto world relies on 'insider information' or 'high-frequency trading', but in fact, the vast majority of those who make money rely on stable methodologies and grasping the market rhythm. Below, I will briefly break down my own path:
One, survive first, then talk about making money.
When I first joined the crypto world, like many newcomers, I chased hot topics, heavily invested in altcoins, and frequently changed coins, resulting in significant losses. Later, I realized that risk control is more important than profit. The most basic principle is:
Do not borrow money to trade coins;
Control positions, do not go all in on high leverage;