熊市生存指南
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Brothers, pay attention! 🚨 SOL is about to face an epic large-scale unlocking! I have dug through data across the internet and found: on March 1st, the FTX bankruptcy asset package will unlock 11.2 million SOL (approximately $2.1 billion), and the subsequent monthly release will continue until 2029! Currently, SOL's weekly chart has broken down + market panic, and the $150 support level is trembling...
But the truth may be more fantastical than imagined! A VanEck analyst stated that 97.5% of SOL has already been in circulation, and this unlocking only accounts for 2% of the market value. Even more intriguing is that most institutions that bought the locked SOL from FTX at a low price are waiting for a tenfold return and are reluctant to sell! Even the $125 million unlocking of Grayscale's SOL trust is just a drop in the bucket in front of a hundred billion market value~
Here's the key point: On-chain data shows that the 42 million SOL held by FTX cannot be immediately dumped, and the real selling pressure is concentrated in 2025! Now the entire network is focused on the first unlocking on March 1st, and smart money may be positioning themselves in advance to create panic. I have observed that large wallets are placing buy orders in the $150-$160 range, and if this wave breaks through the trend line, it might welcome a phase of golden opportunities! #Solana解锁 #熊市生存指南
(Data source: Messari/Court documents/solanacompass, DYOR)
But the truth may be more fantastical than imagined! A VanEck analyst stated that 97.5% of SOL has already been in circulation, and this unlocking only accounts for 2% of the market value. Even more intriguing is that most institutions that bought the locked SOL from FTX at a low price are waiting for a tenfold return and are reluctant to sell! Even the $125 million unlocking of Grayscale's SOL trust is just a drop in the bucket in front of a hundred billion market value~
Here's the key point: On-chain data shows that the 42 million SOL held by FTX cannot be immediately dumped, and the real selling pressure is concentrated in 2025! Now the entire network is focused on the first unlocking on March 1st, and smart money may be positioning themselves in advance to create panic. I have observed that large wallets are placing buy orders in the $150-$160 range, and if this wave breaks through the trend line, it might welcome a phase of golden opportunities! #Solana解锁 #熊市生存指南
(Data source: Messari/Court documents/solanacompass, DYOR)
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How to determine if it is a bull market or a bear market❓
What characteristics do bull and bear markets have❓
1. Price Trend:
• Bull Market: Prices continue to rise, reaching new highs.
• Bear Market: Prices continue to fall, reaching new lows.
2. Market Sentiment:
• Bull Market: Investor sentiment is optimistic, generally bullish.
• Bear Market: Investor sentiment is pessimistic, generally bearish.
3. Technical Indicators:
• Bull Market: Short-term moving averages are above long-term moving averages (e.g., golden cross), RSI is above 50, trading volume increases.
• Bear Market: Short-term moving averages fall below long-term moving averages (e.g., death cross), RSI is below 50, trading volume increases.
4. Trading Volume:
• Bull Market: Trading volume increases, the market is active.
• Bear Market: Trading volume increases, but prices fall, selling pressure intensifies.
5. Macroeconomics:
• Bull Market: Economic growth, low interest rates, positive market sentiment.
• Bear Market: Economic recession, rising interest rates, negative market sentiment.
6. VIX (Volatility Index):
• Bull Market: VIX is low, the market is stable.
• Bear Market: VIX is high, the market is in panic.
By using these indicators, along with market trends, sentiment, and technical analysis, one can determine whether the market is in a bull or bear phase.
#牛市 #熊市生存指南
What characteristics do bull and bear markets have❓
1. Price Trend:
• Bull Market: Prices continue to rise, reaching new highs.
• Bear Market: Prices continue to fall, reaching new lows.
2. Market Sentiment:
• Bull Market: Investor sentiment is optimistic, generally bullish.
• Bear Market: Investor sentiment is pessimistic, generally bearish.
3. Technical Indicators:
• Bull Market: Short-term moving averages are above long-term moving averages (e.g., golden cross), RSI is above 50, trading volume increases.
• Bear Market: Short-term moving averages fall below long-term moving averages (e.g., death cross), RSI is below 50, trading volume increases.
4. Trading Volume:
• Bull Market: Trading volume increases, the market is active.
• Bear Market: Trading volume increases, but prices fall, selling pressure intensifies.
5. Macroeconomics:
• Bull Market: Economic growth, low interest rates, positive market sentiment.
• Bear Market: Economic recession, rising interest rates, negative market sentiment.
6. VIX (Volatility Index):
• Bull Market: VIX is low, the market is stable.
• Bear Market: VIX is high, the market is in panic.
By using these indicators, along with market trends, sentiment, and technical analysis, one can determine whether the market is in a bull or bear phase.
#牛市 #熊市生存指南
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🔥【Trading Principles】3 Steps to Escape the Liquidation Trap | Patient Alchemy
💎Core Principle:
"Patience with a Gun > Blind Actions with Bullets"
90% of losses in the crypto market stem from FOMO emotions; top traders lock in annual returns through "strategic dormancy"
🚨Deadly Trap Self-Check:
✅ Wanting to act upon seeing fluctuations
✅ Checking positions more than 3 times/hour
✅ Deceiving oneself with "small position trial trades"
⚡️Minimal Survival Guide:
1️⃣ Freeze Button Mechanism
- Set a "maximum number of trades per day" (recommended ≤ 3 times)
- Activate Binance's "read-only mode" to enforce calm when triggering signals
2️⃣ Sniper-style Opening Trades
- Only act after meeting "triple verification":
① Multi-timeframe trend resonance
② Significant on-chain large transfers
③ Market Fear Index < 25
3️⃣ Automatic Insurance System
- Immediately transfer 50% to Binance's Earn feature when profits exceed 20%
- Trigger a 72-hour trading ban when losses reach 5%
🌰Blood and Tears Case Study: An institutional trader missed a 30% main upward wave of SOL by taking profits 5 minutes early
#交易心态 #熊市生存指南
💎Core Principle:
"Patience with a Gun > Blind Actions with Bullets"
90% of losses in the crypto market stem from FOMO emotions; top traders lock in annual returns through "strategic dormancy"
🚨Deadly Trap Self-Check:
✅ Wanting to act upon seeing fluctuations
✅ Checking positions more than 3 times/hour
✅ Deceiving oneself with "small position trial trades"
⚡️Minimal Survival Guide:
1️⃣ Freeze Button Mechanism
- Set a "maximum number of trades per day" (recommended ≤ 3 times)
- Activate Binance's "read-only mode" to enforce calm when triggering signals
2️⃣ Sniper-style Opening Trades
- Only act after meeting "triple verification":
① Multi-timeframe trend resonance
② Significant on-chain large transfers
③ Market Fear Index < 25
3️⃣ Automatic Insurance System
- Immediately transfer 50% to Binance's Earn feature when profits exceed 20%
- Trigger a 72-hour trading ban when losses reach 5%
🌰Blood and Tears Case Study: An institutional trader missed a 30% main upward wave of SOL by taking profits 5 minutes early
#交易心态 #熊市生存指南
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$ETH $BTC $SOL
Yes, the cryptocurrency market has indeed entered a bear market recently. By definition, when the price of an asset drops more than 20% from its recent high, it is considered to be in a bear market. Bitcoin has fallen more than 20% since its historical high of $109,350 set in January 2025, and is currently priced at about $79,390. Ethereum (ETH) has also seen a significant drop from its recent high, with the current price around $2,115.7. Other major cryptocurrencies like BNB, Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL) have also experienced similar downward trends.
The main reasons for this bear market include:
• Policy impact: The cryptocurrency-friendly policies of U.S. President Trump have not been implemented as expected, leading to unmet market expectations.
• Market scandals: Recent scandals in the cryptocurrency field have affected investor confidence.
• Hacker attacks: Major hacking incidents have led to capital outflow, further exacerbating the market decline.
Investors should approach the current market volatility with caution, manage risks properly, and avoid blindly following trends.
#熊市生存指南
#熊市猎手
Yes, the cryptocurrency market has indeed entered a bear market recently. By definition, when the price of an asset drops more than 20% from its recent high, it is considered to be in a bear market. Bitcoin has fallen more than 20% since its historical high of $109,350 set in January 2025, and is currently priced at about $79,390. Ethereum (ETH) has also seen a significant drop from its recent high, with the current price around $2,115.7. Other major cryptocurrencies like BNB, Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL) have also experienced similar downward trends.
The main reasons for this bear market include:
• Policy impact: The cryptocurrency-friendly policies of U.S. President Trump have not been implemented as expected, leading to unmet market expectations.
• Market scandals: Recent scandals in the cryptocurrency field have affected investor confidence.
• Hacker attacks: Major hacking incidents have led to capital outflow, further exacerbating the market decline.
Investors should approach the current market volatility with caution, manage risks properly, and avoid blindly following trends.
#熊市生存指南
#熊市猎手
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The previous bear market made you lose the desire to buy, so you wouldn’t lose money. The current bear market makes you think it’s a bull market. You’ll lose money if you buy. #熊市生存指南
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The part-time earnings saved by university students over six months have all been invested
#熊市生存指南 #新手小白 Contract lost 800u, later leveraged $SHELL 0.62 bought at 0.7, didn't sell, 0.42 cut losses. Then transferred to leverage $SUSHI , opened a position at 0.77, has been falling, added to the position until the average opening price was 0.68, altogether nearly 400u has gone, is it still necessary to hold on?
#熊市生存指南 #新手小白 Contract lost 800u, later leveraged $SHELL 0.62 bought at 0.7, didn't sell, 0.42 cut losses. Then transferred to leverage $SUSHI , opened a position at 0.77, has been falling, added to the position until the average opening price was 0.68, altogether nearly 400u has gone, is it still necessary to hold on?
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When will the bull market return or will the bear market continue!!!
$BTC $ETH $$XRP
Predicting when the stock market will return to a bull market or continue in a bear market is a complex issue, as the stock market is influenced by various factors, including economic conditions, policy adjustments, market sentiment, etc. Based on historical data and expert analysis, the A-share market does exhibit a cyclical pattern of alternating bull and bear markets, but the specific timing of each bull-bear transition is difficult to predict accurately.
1. Historical Bull-Bear Cycles:
• Historically, the A-share market has experienced ten bear markets and is currently in the eleventh round of a bear market.
• Among the previous ten bear markets, the longest lasted for more than four years.
Predicting when the stock market will return to a bull market or continue in a bear market is a complex issue, as the stock market is influenced by various factors, including economic conditions, policy adjustments, market sentiment, etc. Based on historical data and expert analysis, the A-share market does exhibit a cyclical pattern of alternating bull and bear markets, but the specific timing of each bull-bear transition is difficult to predict accurately.
1. Historical Bull-Bear Cycles:
• Historically, the A-share market has experienced ten bear markets and is currently in the eleventh round of a bear market.
• Among the previous ten bear markets, the longest lasted for more than four years.
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Is Bitcoin entering a bear market? An in-depth market analysis.
Is Bitcoin really in a bear market? Let me tell you about it for ten bucks!
1. First, look at how the price is moving.
Bitcoin is currently swaying at $30,000, down 50% from last year's high of $60,000. This is indeed quite miserable!
But don’t panic! A bear market requires a drop of more than six months; it has only been a little over six months, just like falling from a mountain top and not yet reaching the bottom.
Attention! This is not to comfort you; it’s an objective fact!
2. Bitcoin's "roller coaster nature".
This thing can drop 10% in three days and rise 20% in three days; it’s a common occurrence!
Let me give you a real example:
Last November, it crashed 30% → then surged 40% in December → now it's dropping back again... The conclusion is that short-term fluctuations do not count as a bear market; only long-term does!
1. First, look at how the price is moving.
Bitcoin is currently swaying at $30,000, down 50% from last year's high of $60,000. This is indeed quite miserable!
But don’t panic! A bear market requires a drop of more than six months; it has only been a little over six months, just like falling from a mountain top and not yet reaching the bottom.
Attention! This is not to comfort you; it’s an objective fact!
2. Bitcoin's "roller coaster nature".
This thing can drop 10% in three days and rise 20% in three days; it’s a common occurrence!
Let me give you a real example:
Last November, it crashed 30% → then surged 40% in December → now it's dropping back again... The conclusion is that short-term fluctuations do not count as a bear market; only long-term does!
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CryptoQuant CEO Warns: Bitcoin Has Entered Bear Market
Today, Ki Young Ju, the CEO of the leading blockchain data analysis platform CryptoQuant, made a striking statement on X: the bull market cycle for Bitcoin has ended. His analysis is based on the Realized Cap metric, a tool that measures the actual capital inflow into the Bitcoin market through on-chain transactions. According to CryptoQuant's data, despite capital still flowing in, the Bitcoin price has stagnated, showing strong selling pressure, marking the beginning of a bear market.
A chart provided by CryptoQuant clearly illustrates this trend: during previous bull market cycles, Bitcoin's market capitalization often far exceeded Realized Cap. However, currently, despite new capital inflows, the price remains stagnant. Ki Young Ju mentioned MicroStrategy's strategy of purchasing Bitcoin using convertible bonds, a strategy that previously drove prices up significantly when selling pressure was low. But as Bitcoin's price approached $100,000, massive selling pressure prevented further price increases.
CryptoQuant's CEO predicts that prices are unlikely to recover in the short term, and a true trend reversal may take at least six months. This view has attracted widespread attention from the crypto investment community.
#比特币 #CryptoQuant #RealizedCap #熊市生存指南 #链上分析
Today, Ki Young Ju, the CEO of the leading blockchain data analysis platform CryptoQuant, made a striking statement on X: the bull market cycle for Bitcoin has ended. His analysis is based on the Realized Cap metric, a tool that measures the actual capital inflow into the Bitcoin market through on-chain transactions. According to CryptoQuant's data, despite capital still flowing in, the Bitcoin price has stagnated, showing strong selling pressure, marking the beginning of a bear market.
A chart provided by CryptoQuant clearly illustrates this trend: during previous bull market cycles, Bitcoin's market capitalization often far exceeded Realized Cap. However, currently, despite new capital inflows, the price remains stagnant. Ki Young Ju mentioned MicroStrategy's strategy of purchasing Bitcoin using convertible bonds, a strategy that previously drove prices up significantly when selling pressure was low. But as Bitcoin's price approached $100,000, massive selling pressure prevented further price increases.
CryptoQuant's CEO predicts that prices are unlikely to recover in the short term, and a true trend reversal may take at least six months. This view has attracted widespread attention from the crypto investment community.
#比特币 #CryptoQuant #RealizedCap #熊市生存指南 #链上分析
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$BTC
Buying the Dip! Buying the Dip! Buying the Dip!???
Let me tell you, if it breaks 80697 weekly, it will go down to 76-74. If it doesn't bounce back at 74 and closes, then it will continue down to 68! It might be a bit exaggerated, but the candlestick trend says so! Conversely, only by stabilizing at 84 can we look upwards.
So, those buying the dip are now on the edge of a crash again!
$ETH
It will go to 1400-1600.
Many have been buying Auntie, are you really buying the dip on Auntie or buying at the top of Auntie? Have you thought about it?
#熊市生存指南
Buying the Dip! Buying the Dip! Buying the Dip!???
Let me tell you, if it breaks 80697 weekly, it will go down to 76-74. If it doesn't bounce back at 74 and closes, then it will continue down to 68! It might be a bit exaggerated, but the candlestick trend says so! Conversely, only by stabilizing at 84 can we look upwards.
So, those buying the dip are now on the edge of a crash again!
$ETH
It will go to 1400-1600.
Many have been buying Auntie, are you really buying the dip on Auntie or buying at the top of Auntie? Have you thought about it?
#熊市生存指南
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Bring something different to your timeline: an immersive experience of camping in the mountains on a rainy day.
In a bull market, staying at home is for making money; in a bear market, staying at home is no longer cost-effective, so I decided to go out for a stroll.
By the way, I spent 300U on this nap, was it worth it?
You can check my wandering fund balance in my private space follow-up.
$BTC #熊市生存指南
In a bull market, staying at home is for making money; in a bear market, staying at home is no longer cost-effective, so I decided to go out for a stroll.
By the way, I spent 300U on this nap, was it worth it?
You can check my wandering fund balance in my private space follow-up.
$BTC #熊市生存指南
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