4. Crypto blogger rapid transit
1. Top trader Pigeon
Pigeon updated at noon today:
Looks like I... got off the train too early?
Looking back, we are clearly now in an accelerated phase.
Some eye-catching market movements are starting to appear, and prices have significantly increased compared to a month ago.
The countdown has begun; the end will eventually come.
But I think we still have some time to enjoy this journey before the music stops.
(Pigeon said he sold too early, believes the countdown to the peak has begun, but thinks it can still rise for a while, and the need for caution increases as the peak approaches.)
2. Trader Vivian
Updated from 5:19-7:23 Beijing time on July 18:
If you want to short BTC, you must close daily below 119.5K,
Before this, short positions were not yet stable.
If it doesn't close below, then Friday (TGIF) is a long opportunity.
Because this market movement is entirely driven by retail FOMO, as you've seen.
Upcoming operating plan:
• Plan A: Close below 119.5K → Short at 120K → Target 116K
• Plan B: Close above 119.5K → Go long at 117777 → Target 122K
I will explain the specific logic using voice next.
(The following is a summary of the voice content:)
If retail investors and whales start building long positions and the closing price breaks through the $600 million order level (119K-120K), this order becomes important support, and whales officially enter to go long; if the closing price falls below this order, then the whales will go short, safely. If the closing price is below 19.5K, a reassessment is needed, as new orders take precedence, indicating that the market may be inducing retail behavior to complete large orders.
Updated from 7:42-8:00 Beijing time on the 18th:
This box is the value area, right?
If the price rises but is then re-accepted back into this range, that is a clear bearish signal.
Moreover, if the daily closes below 119.5K, then Friday (TGIF) will be a very clean shorting opportunity.
However, note that the TGIF structure must wait until after Thursday's close to be established.
On high time frames (HTF), it measures 'shadow to close';
On low time frames (LTF), it measures 'shadow to shadow'.
It's not just TGIF,
All Fibonacci (FIB) structures are like this:
HTF measures shadow to K-line closing, LTF measures shadow to shadow.
But also remember, even if all conditions are met, entering must be done very carefully.
Many people bought within an hour after the genius bill was passed, and they will definitely fight back.
So, it's not easy to short before the London session (Beijing time afternoon).
because the price is likely to rebound to at least 120K.
Here it comes—TGIF shorting point at 117777. This means: short positions must be closed at 117777. Since the daily closes bearish, the price will slightly dip below the TGIF level.
The red path in the chart represents the weekend's market; it will look like it wants to break down,
but the daily will eventually close above TGIF. Then it will drop once more, filling about half of the shadow by the weekend, then stagnate.
This entire segment will seem like a breakdown + retest turning resistance, but it's actually just a bearish illusion on a low time frame (LtF bearishness).
Then on Monday, it's a buying opportunity, going long from 117777, with a target of at least 121.5K, and at most 122K, which is expected to be reached around next Wednesday.
The only days suitable for shorting are Friday and Monday, and even on Friday, shorts can only be held until noon; the daily closing won't turn bearish.
By the way, I like TAO, of course, also Trump and Melania.
Updated at 17:12 Beijing time on the 18th:
We have reached the TGIF support level and are now slowly entering long positions in batches because we anticipate prices will dip slightly again, so I have closed all short positions and currently hold a hedged position—one long, one short.
Starting Monday, I will only go long.
Currently:
• My long position is LTC
• My short position is Trump
(Vivian believes that because the giant whales opened a $600 million short position at 119K, she is still bearish and plans to go long next Monday, with the bearish point only down to 117777. Currently, she holds a hedging position (pair trading).)
3. Top trader Joshua
Updated at 4:00 Beijing time on the 18th:
I cleared many contract positions, preparing to wait for a correction. The news about BlackRock's staking reaction is quite muted.
Even if bonkguy showed the yield chart of BONK, BONK's reaction was very weak. FLOKI's double-top structure also failed.
These signals...
The possibility of a local top is very high.
At noon today:
Just took a nap, and when I woke up, I saw the news that SBET is raising another $800 million.
Plus Trump's news...
Updated at 16:35:
I will also operate conservatively until the weekend. The spot I bought at the beginning of the month will continue to be firmly held; I will only adjust the leverage of the contract positions.
(Joshua also closed some short-term long positions yesterday, and still holds some spot, but he feels he might have sold too early.)
4. Top trader Altcoin Sherpa
Updated this morning Beijing time:
Overall, I am still very bullish, but I am not in a hurry to open a pile of new positions. I have already built a good amount of spot positions at very low levels, and I am satisfied with my current holdings. Also, in the coming days, I will go hiking/traveling.
Currently, the main focus is on finding some coins for swing trading. In this market, flexibility is the most important; you must be ready to increase or reduce positions at any time.
For active traders, constant rebalancing is the optimal strategy; but if you are more passive, that's fine; you just need to pick a few quality coins and hold them securely.
I personally believe now is the time to buy on dips, not to look for short points. Overall, I plan to enjoy this wave of market; in my view, many altcoins' charts against the dollar are very strong.
I think we may welcome a few weeks to two months of good days, followed by some fluctuations at the end of Q3, and then a wave of crazy market in Q4.
(Sherpa still believes that the market will continue to rise in the coming weeks, but he is not fully invested; he suggests buying the dips and not going short.)
5. Top trader Definalist
He updated this afternoon:
Narrative segments worth noting in July:
@aave (DeFi)
As the trading day for WLFI approaches, I will pay more attention to mainstream DeFi projects that are most likely to benefit; AAVE is one of them.
@HoloworldAI (AI companionship type)
In the narrative of 'AI companionship' triggered by Musk, I think this is the only related token that has already launched contract trading.
Current market cap is $52 million, which is about half of ANI's historical high.
Old MEME coins
I looked at the charts and bought some spot of old MEME coins,
Especially those coins that haven't even reached 1/4 to 1/2 of their historical highs.
Just a reminder—during a bull market, MEME has always been the category with the highest returns.
Also, be cautious about increasing market volatility.
My personal strategy is: whenever there is movement in OG Bitcoin wallets, I will increase my position during pullbacks.
(Definalist is also a top trader from South Korea; he believes we can focus on the two narrative segments above, and also explore previously popular meme coins; everyone can refer to his strategies.)
6. Top trader Pentoshi
Updated this morning Beijing time:
Many funds I know have previously heavily invested in HYPE and SOL, among which HYPE performed exceptionally well, arguably their most successful trade this year. However, SOL peaked against BTC a year and a half ago, and against the dollar, it basically remains in a sideways range. Now they are forced to rotate back to ETH from SOL because they previously sold most of their ETH for SOL.
Most people in this world don't even know our circle exists. Many are just hearing about $BTC and $ETH for the first time and are starting to understand what a future coexistence with them might look like. The entire crypto Twitter (CT) community actually seriously underestimates the capital scale in traditional markets and how high their liquidity is.
(Pentoshi says that SOL is weak recently because some institutions have rotated to ETH, and once traditional financial institutions enter the crypto space, the market's performance will exceed our imagination.)
7. Wave Theory Liu Yudong
July 18, 2025 Daily Chart
The fourth segment of the red line is usually 0.2-0.5 of the third segment, taking up 0.495. The rise over these three days has consumed 0.7 of the fourth segment, indicating that this fourth segment is likely a sideways adjustment before pushing to a new high in the fifth segment, with a good chance of ending the adjustment and starting to rise towards 132669 before the 27th.
(Liu Yudong still thinks we are in a correction, but now believes it may be a sideways adjustment, and after $BTC it will still push to 132K.)
5. Conclusion
I've seen some foreign bloggers, and they are optimistic about ETH and XRP breaking new highs, also optimistic about SOL; even though it's weak now, there is still the ETF funding entry, and it will rise later.
Also, Definalist is as skilled as Joshua and is a Korean trader; he’s tough and speaks little, you can follow his strategies to find meme coins. But heavily invest in mainstream coins; meme volatility is too large.
I personally closed all long positions last night, and today I realized I sold too early. This afternoon, I also sold BGB spot because I believe according to Pigeon and Joshua's market instincts and Vivian and Liu Yudong's bearish views, taking profits is fine. However, today the market sentiment was too good; many coins are still surging, and it only started to decline at 10:30 Beijing time.
I still regret clearing all positions; most of my positions had very low costs, and if it weren't for the launch coin affecting my mindset, I wouldn't have cleared them.
In a bull market, when encountering coins like today's C, cross which are violently pumped, it's best not to touch them, definitely do not short, and also avoid chasing highs; the risks are too great. I suffered significant losses last year, from last year's trb, X, not, and so many other cases. First, they exploded the shorts, then trapped those who chased highs and 'bottom fishing'. You can check last year's K-line to see.
If you still want to trade such coins, you must place floating profit stop-loss orders and take profits in a timely manner; if you lose, just exit.
Make sure to use stop-loss; if you find yourself deeply trapped, asking me what to do won't help; I also don't know whether to hold on or cut losses.
Recently, shorts cannot be made; the market is hot, and many semi-retired traders have returned. Today, BTC fell, but altcoins rose instead; even when they fell, they quickly recovered; it's very strong.
I should have published my article earlier; I apologize for dragging it until midnight every day. I started writing in the afternoon, but many annoying things kept interrupting me.
Below is the mysterious number for finding the organization.
102 deleted 21 removed 77 text 03 words 3
I won't update market analysis over the weekend unless there's something significant; I need to rest for a bit.
Statement:
The above information is for reference only and is not trading advice. The crypto market is high risk; participation requires caution.
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