1. Quick market overview in the crypto space
1. Altcoin market situation
The total market value of altcoins has fallen for 6 consecutive days on the daily chart, and there is still a large distance to the support level below. Altcoins will not perform well in the coming days.
2. BTC market share
BTC.D weekly is bearish, and the daily is in a rebound; it is expected to retest the EMA144 moving average, and then it should decline again. Correspondingly, altcoins will rise again in the coming days.
3. Liquidation heatmap
From the liquidation heatmap monthly chart, it may dip to 109K and then reverse upwards to above 120K.
4. Fear and greed index
Fear and greed index 51, in a rapid decline.
4. Quick overview of crypto bloggers
1. Top trader Dove Eugene Ng Ah Sio
The dove updated this afternoon:
Went long on $ETH again—The saying 'cursed August' has been accepted too quickly, and $113K for BTC and $3.5K for ETH are reasonable entry points to try, with stop losses set below $112K / $3.4K.
Although the narrative of DAT (Daily Active Traders cryptocurrency reserve institutions) may weaken in the future, objectively, structural buying in the market is still ongoing, so I won't turn bearish so quickly. Many people constantly swing between 'we are about to take off' and 'it's all over,' without realizing that the market does not operate in black and white.
(The dove has not turned bearish; he believes that institutional buying power is still present, and the market is just undergoing a short-term correction. He is trying to go long again at BTC 113K and ETH 3.4K.)
2. Trader Vivian
(Vivian lost on several long positions last night, and didn't say much after the daily close this morning. She probably also found it hard to speak.)
3. Top trader Saint Pump
Updated last night:
The time has come. Here comes another wave.
I've been looking at charts during this time, completely blocking out the noise on Twitter.
The way this decline is happening now, testing the HTF (High Time Frame) support...
There are obvious signs of manipulation; there is no real selling pressure at all.
Once again—I've seen one of the biggest short traps.
But this time, they can't trap me.
"Cursed August"
I was joking about the decentralized gamblers; this is the bottom buying range.
My plan hasn't changed; the market will rebound at the latest on August 4th or 5th.
(Saint believes this decline is a pullback in a larger cycle and a short trap. He expects a rebound from the 4th to the 5th.)
4. Top trader Altcoin Sherpa
Updated last night Beijing time:
I sold my $ETH position at $3600 today, although I believe it will eventually rise to $5000. So why did I sell?
• Opportunity cost: I could invest this money in another cryptocurrency that performs far better than ETH.
• Psychological pressure from pullbacks: Usually, when positions are too large or there is a lack of confidence in trading, the pressure from pullbacks can be significant (I have both).
• Better entry opportunities: If I think it will drop a lot, I can buy back later (to be determined). My entry this time was terrible, almost buying at the peak of $3800 (and I kept telling myself to be patient and cautious).
• Stop loss failure: For me, $3500 is the stop loss point. This is not a long-term investment but an active trade.
Overall, this has been a good learning experience. I lost about two-thirds of my contract profits (about 300K) over the past month, but I will keep moving forward. I'm not worried and am confident I can earn it back.
(Sherpa has cleared his ETH position; tonight he commented on many altcoin buying points, and everyone can check it out on Twitter.)
Summary
Most bloggers are resting over the weekend, and there isn't much information.
The dove is still going long, believing that we are only experiencing a pullback in the upward movement. Saint shares the same view and even predicts a bottom around the 4th to 5th (Eastern U.S. time). Vivian predicts the timing to be around the 8th. Liu Yudong just said it's in adjustment, and after the adjustment, it will go to 130K.
Mainstream coins haven't dropped much, but altcoins have already fallen back to June's lows; it's best not to trade altcoins for now. Moreover, the market is currently fluctuating downwards; when you chase shorts, you can easily encounter a V-reversal, and when you chase longs, you may hit a waterfall; it's too difficult now, better to stay in cash and wait a few days to see.
No updates on the article tomorrow, Sunday.
Statement:
The above information is for reference only and not trading advice; the crypto space is high risk, and participation should be cautious.
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