Crypto Blogger Speedrun
1. Top trader Dove Eugene Ng Ah Sio
(Dove hasn't updated.)
2. Trader Vivian
Update at 12:00 AM on July 31, Beijing time:
Current plans remain unchanged: the daily close is above TGIF, and the weekly close is also above TGIF.
So we should see a surge up to 118,888 - 120K during the FOMC period. But these fluctuations will be quick.
BTC may also finally close below TGIF. 118,888 - 120K is a very clean shorting position.
I have already entered a short position and will add more at a higher level later. I may also place a long position to hedge the short before the FOMC, and by 2:30 PM Eastern Time, we can completely switch back to short positions.
Update at 2:01 AM Beijing time on the 31st:
Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, the market may still experience brief fluctuations during their speeches, but overall bearish sentiment has been established.
From 2:30 PM Eastern Time, we can start shorting comprehensively; I will confirm again.
Don't enter the market until they finish speaking. I still hold the previous short position.
Once we close below TGIF for the first time, even those who shorted early will retest TGIF once. So even if you missed today, TGIF remains a great shorting entry point towards 108K.
We are currently at this position,
So, to confirm — there will be no rebound to the 118,888 - 120K range. The price is stalling at 115.8K, which is today’s target. The TGIF level will retest 117K once before the major drop. The big drop will officially start next week.
Update at 3:06 AM Beijing time on the 31st:
Intraday target has been achieved,
Before TGIF arrives this Friday, just focus on the content I publish. By TGIF, you can almost short anything.
Update at 5:17 AM Beijing time:
That's basically it:
TGIF is the next important shorting point, targeting below 115K. Tomorrow's market will be very difficult to trade overall,
There will be upward and downward squeezes while maintaining a mild bearish trend. If possible, skip trading entirely on Thursday.
Update at 7:26 AM Beijing time:
Traders must pay close attention to this update, as it is a strategy prepared for 'large-scale shorting':
Focus on two key positions:
• 118888: Unprocessed naked point control area (naked POC)
• 117777: The lost TGIF level
Aggressive shorts have already entered around 117777, and theoretically, there should be a decline upon retesting. However, based on experience, such naked POCs are usually not ignored, so I expect another long upper shadow like today.
The intraday high may again touch 118888 before truly falling back.
If the daily line closes as a bearish line when Asia opens, it will bring the price back to the mid-level of the long shadow line, around 116666.
A V-shaped rebound may occur from there, but as long as tomorrow's daily close is below 117777, our short view remains valid.
The trading strategy summary is as follows:
1. Intraday bearish target: 116666
2. Ignore area: 116666 - 117777 / 118888 (Trading is not recommended in this range)
3. Waiting for TGIF to form.
4. Shorting from TGIF, starting a swing short position for about a week.
Recommendations:
• Try to minimize trading from the Asian session until Thursday.
• Bearish target at 116666.
• After TGIF clearly forms, short again and hold.
I hope this plan is clear enough!
Update at 8:42 AM Beijing time on the 31st:
Daily close update.
Sorry for the late update. So far, we haven't seen the daily close below last week's TGIF.
That’s why I suggested everyone end their short positions before the daily close. Next, we wait for the naked point control area (NPOC) of 118888 to be cleared, then short when the first clear sign of weakness appears. Before that, some altcoins may rise sporadically,
We can skip these market movements and not participate. From now until tomorrow night, only trade when I issue operation suggestions; if I don't, it means I haven't seen a sufficiently safe opportunity.
Update starting at 8:15 PM Beijing time on the 31st:
Good morning!
I saw that the naked point control area (NPOC) of 118888 was already filled last night.
So you might be wondering: why not just go short with a full position? My hesitation is due to two reasons:
First point:
When I posted the chart last week, the whole range from 115K to 120K actually hadn't been fully reached; it only went up to 119K.
The reason I set the target at 120K is that there is a bunch of 'equal high stop' orders above 120K.
In other words, the movement from last week to now has actually been running within the same upward wave segment,
The stop-loss pool above has not been cleared yet. Because of this, the momentum there has not been fully released.
Second point:
This part has not been cleared yet. 4T must be precisely hit to count as completely completing this wave of rise, after which it will truly fall. In my experience, in 90% of cases, the target will be hit before turning.
Third point: BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) has hit a local resistance level.
Fourth point: ETH has not yet fallen below TGIF.
Considering all these factors, I believe there will still be a strong intraday surge ahead,
First, sweep away the liquidity above before starting a real decline.
Even if not all coins surge, at least BTC, ETH, and some mainstream coins should spike and touch 4T before falling back.
If BTC shows a swing failure pattern (false breakout failure structure),
Then I will fully enter a large short position. Before this forms — or before the TGIF clearly forms,
Let's not participate in the market for now, just observe quietly.
When I think about what might trigger this market movement, the only thing that comes to mind is the upcoming price index to be released in the next 10 minutes. However, such data usually doesn't lead to particularly fierce surges or drops, so I guess this could be some news-driven movement. We have to wait and see how the market reacts next. I am still looking for shorting opportunities but will not rush in without confirmation; I hope I made myself clear.
There are 2 minutes until the economic data is released. Tonight is the monthly close, expect large fluctuations, be cautious of risks.
(Vivian has given up on the idea of BTC rebounding to 120K, now believes today’s high will only reach 118888, which has just been tapped. There will be another rebound on Friday, then she will short, waiting for next week’s collapse.)
3. Top trader Joshua
Update at noon Beijing time:
The data today and tomorrow should not be significant; it seems that a short-term bottom has already appeared.
a. GDP data exceeded expectations, surprising the market.
b. There are two committee members with differing opinions — Waller and Bowan, both appointed by Trump, which means if more Fed voting members appointed by Trump come in the future, the Fed may be more inclined to cut rates.
Overall, the data indicates better economic performance, thereby reducing the necessity for further rate cuts.
The federal funds futures currently expect a 47-48% chance of a rate cut in September, down from 63% before the FOMC meeting, with an overall expectation of two cuts for the year.
Although U.S. stocks fell at one point, they have since fully rebounded and reached new highs.
We still need to pay attention to non-farm data, but regardless of the data:
• Strong non-farm payroll → Stock market rises due to strong economy;
• Weak non-farm payroll → Stock market rises due to rate cut expectations.
No matter what happens, Trump will push the market up.
However, August is still quite tricky.
(Joshua believes BTC and the entire market have already found a short-term bottom and provided detailed reasons, but August has not been a smooth bull market.)
4. Top trader Altcoin Sherpa
Update this morning Beijing time:
No matter how the market fluctuates, $ETH still shows very strong performance.
This 4K area has been sideways for a full 4 years. Four years, man! Do you know how long four years is in the crypto world?
Please break through this position quickly, I beg you.
Current positions: $ETH, $ENA
Currently no positions (observing): $BTC, Fartcoin, $HYPE
Coins I like and am waiting to buy on a pullback:
Mainstream coins: $SOL, $BNB
Altcoins: $PENGU, $BONK, $PUMP, $DOLO
There are also some other things being monitored.
Maintaining a defensive mindset and being slightly bearish is understandable,
But I think you shouldn't be too proactive in looking for short opportunities, or always be in a short mindset.
Overall, the market remains quite bullish on $BTC and $ETH.
And once these two rise, many altcoins are also likely to strengthen.
Instead of always thinking about shorting, it might be more appropriate to consider buying on dips.
(Sherpa has already cleared BTC, Fartcoin, HYPE, holding ETH, ENA, and he remains optimistic about BTC, ETH, not recommending shorting.)
5. Top trader Saint Pump
Update from last night:
I believe we are witnessing the final consolidation phase at the multi-week level, after which we will see a final surge.
My two main macro indicators point to a peak in September or October:
1. Four-Year Cycle Model (4-Year Cycle)
• If we completely replicate the duration of the previous two bull markets, the peak will occur around October 20.
• However, historically there are usually a few weeks of deviation, which is quite common.
2. Global M2 indicator (leading by 3 months)
• Based on current data, the M2 peak will occur on September 23.
• In past cycles, BTC has always peaked ahead of liquidity peaks and has never lagged (although the correlation this round is much higher than before).
• This means there could be another surge after the liquidity, but overall it still points to risk assets peaking at a monthly level in September.
3. The final resonance signal I am observing is the Pi Cycle top indicator.
• It infers the top of $BTC based on the gap between the 111-day moving average and the 350-day moving average.
• In the previous cycle, this indicator, while slightly off in timing, was accurate in price judgment, and it currently indicates a possible significant increase.
Summary:
Overall, I believe we are nearing the tail end of the bull market, with a high probability time window for the peak between September and October.
And this current adjustment period is likely the stage for the final market momentum.
(Saint believes the current adjustment in BTC is a buildup for the next wave of rally, the next wave will reach the peak, then transition to a bear market.)
6. Wave Theory Liu Yudong
Daily chart as of July 31, 2025
(1) If the price maintains above 115738, the fifth segment of the red line's rise is ongoing. This fifth segment is the end of the rise, after which there will be a pullback.
(2) Falling below 114723 again signifies the end of the 98200 rise. Yesterday it pulled back very close to 115738, indicating that bulls might know the importance of this level.
(1) is more likely, (2) is less likely.
(Liu Yudong still believes that BTC is in an upward wave, but this wave of increase is also at its end.)
Five, Summary
There have been many meetings and data in the past few days, leading to significant market fluctuations, various false moves, and extremely difficult trading conditions.
Currently, Vivian and Liu Yudong still believe there will be a surge followed by a significant drop.
Joshua believes $BTC has already found a short-term bottom, and there will be no major drops in the coming days.
Saint Pump believes the peak of this bull market will be between September and October, slightly overlapping with the predictions of several previous big names for late August to early September.
Currently, my personal long position is still stuck, waiting for the last surge. If you're seeking stability, you can clear your position early to avoid risks.
Friends who registered for Binance from yesterday to today, remember to send me your latest ID, and come back to claim half a month of Discord membership.
Statement:
The above information is for reference only, not trading advice. The crypto space is high risk, participation requires caution.
Community Introduction:
Crypto Speedrun is a community that aggregates quality content and helps retail investors grow in crypto trading. We are committed to:
• Select and summarize the latest market views and analyses from top traders worldwide.
• Aggregate and forward content from dozens of well-known domestic and foreign bloggers' paid groups and internal groups, real-time forwarding of first-hand information.
• Community with zero threshold, friendly atmosphere, mutual assistance and learning among retail investors.
• Advocate learning, provide free learning materials and online training courses covering technical aspects, position management, etc.
• Continuously develop information processing and trading assistance tools to enhance decision-making success rates and reduce time costs.
• Provide fee rebate services for mainstream exchanges, let’s try to get back as much fee as possible from the exchanges ##上市公司加密储备战略
