Tonight at 8:30, the U.S. June retail sales month-on-month data is about to be released! Market expectation is 0.3%, previous value -0.3%. This is not only a barometer of the economy but also the ultimate judgment of September's interest rate cut expectations. If the data is weak again, the probability of the Fed cutting rates will soar, and Bitcoin may violently surge to $125,000; if the data is strong, the dollar's knife will be unsheathed, and the $115,000 defense line may turn into a river of blood.
Data nuclear bomb countdown: Two major life-and-death scripts tonight.
Doomsday script: If retail data exceeds 0.3%, the dollar index will surge, and Bitcoin may flash crash to the $110,000-$112,000 institutional burial ground. Remember — June core inflation has soared to 2.9%, the Fed's knife is hanging high, and the tragedy of bullish leverage corpses is right before our eyes (the bloodbath of $550 million in liquidations within 24 hours is still steaming)!
Get-rich script: If the data is below 0% or even negative growth, interest rate cut expectations will rocket! Bitcoin will violently break through the $120,700 short fortress, aiming for the historic peak of $130,000. The deep logic is that internal NRF data has already leaked — June core retail has actually plummeted by 0.32% month-on-month, with furniture sales experiencing a catastrophic decline of 1.14%! Consumers are tightening their wallets due to fears of tariffs.
Tonight's most lethal trap: Regardless of whether the data is good or bad, volatility will instantaneously tear the market apart! Coinglass alarms have sounded — last night's spike and liquidation of $353 million led to the evaporating of 130,000 retail investors.
Undercurrents: The bloodthirsty layout of whales and ETFs.
When retail investors are trembling at the candlestick chart, whales have opened their blood-soaked mouths during the crash:
The Bitcoin inventory on exchanges has plummeted to a historical low of 2.12 million coins, and the number of whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC has surpassed 2,135, hitting a peak for the year!
BlackRock's IBIT is absorbing $300 million in a single day, with a total influx of global Bitcoin ETFs reaching a nuclear-level $52 billion.
This reveals a cruel truth: every crash is a blood-soaked feast for institutions to harvest bloody chips! Standard Chartered Bank's cold-blooded prophecy: Bitcoin at $200,000 by the end of 2025. If it breaks through $116,000 tonight, it will be the last boarding ticket granted by God!
Ethereum is reversing destiny! The slaughter order for altcoin season has been issued.
When Bitcoin bulls are kneeling and wailing, Ethereum is writing a myth of reversal:
ETH surged violently yesterday, breaking through $3,152, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate soaring to 0.0266, hitting a four-month high!
Behind it is a bloodthirsty charge of $1 billion ETF funds, and the technical aspect has already broken through the $3,000 chasm, targeting $3,500.
This is not only a technical breakthrough but also a signal flare for the total attack of altcoin season! Funds are madly pouring into Ethereum ecosystem coins like ENA, AAVE, UNI, etc., with $30.53 million spent on token buybacks on the SOL chain in 9 hours. Old Zhu dares to assert: The days of Bitcoin oscillation will be the time for altcoins to slaughter Wall Street shorts!
Old Zhu's critical strategy: three moves to lick blood from the knife's edge.
Bitcoin's critical explosion point: bury long positions in the range of $116,000-$117,000, stop loss below $114,000; break through $119,250 to chase long positions, target $123,000!
Ethereum golden pit: stabilize between $3,030-$3,060 to increase positions, buy blindly below $2,900, targeting $3,300!
Altcoin slaughter weapon: sniper SOL ecosystem dog coins (PUMP, PENGU), Ethereum layer two leaders (ARB, STRK), closely follow the whale's on-chain movements — RUDI increasing positions by millions, ANI hitting new highs continuously.
Old Zhu's summary:
Tonight's script is so simple that even elementary school students can understand it.
Script 1: Data disappointment (below 0%)
Bitcoin is soaring directly! $120,000 is not a dream.
Old Zhu's personal experience: On the day the CPI data collapsed in May, I led fans to buy BTC at $116,000, making an 18% profit in 8 hours! This time history will repeat itself!
Script 2: Data boosts (above 0.3%)
Bitcoin performs a high-altitude dive on the spot! The $115,000 defense line must be broken.
A bloody lesson: Last month, the non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and those who didn't listen to advice and stubbornly held long positions in the group lost a Tesla in half an hour!
The key point is here: Regardless of whether the data is good or bad, the market will definitely dance! Last night's spike and liquidation of $350 million was just a trailer; can you withstand a 10% fluctuation in your position?
Two: The institutions' trump cards have already been completely exposed by Old Zhu!
When you are torn between going all in or cutting losses:
BlackRock and these giants are crazily buying during the crash, with the ETF absorbing $300 million in a single day!
Bitcoin on exchanges is almost emptied! Inventory has dropped below 2.12 million coins, setting a historical low.
This reveals a fatal signal: the market makers are not afraid of falling at all! A drop is just giving them cheap chips! Standard Chartered Bank says Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by 2025, and right now, every 1% drop is a gift from the heavens!
Three: Ethereum is going crazy! The golden moment for altcoins has arrived.
Key reminder: Don't just focus on Bitcoin!
Ethereum skyrocketed yesterday, breaking through $3,150, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate reaching a four-month high.
Old Zhu's real trading: Last week I called ETH at $2,930, currently up 8% and holding, targeting $3,300!
What's even more explosive is that the altcoin season has started:
One of my community members bought ENA at $0.58 two days ago and sold it at $0.72 this morning, making a furious 24% profit in 24 hours! The market maker on the SOL chain is currently repurchasing with $30 million; the next explosive coin is on Old Zhu's monitoring list!
Old Zhu's operational summary:
Tonight at 8:30, Old Zhu will be live streaming and explaining in person!
First 30 minutes free access to wealth code:
"Which three coins to buy if it falls below $115,000?"
"How many times to leverage for a bull market?"
Scan the code to reserve your spot; you either get rich or get liquidated, with no middle option!
