BTC☀️

#BTC☀️
$BTC
U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) openly criticized the Federal Reserve’s recent actions concerning cryptocurrency regulations in a series of posts on social media platform X on April 25. Lummis dismissed the Fed’s withdrawal of previous crypto guidance as merely superficial, asserting:

The Federal Reserve’s actions yesterday withdrawing crypto guidance are just lip service.

“The Fed continues to illegally flout the law on master accounts,” she stressed, referencing the prolonged delays experienced by Custodia Bank, a Wyoming-based digital asset bank. Custodia Bank sued the Federal Reserve Board and Kansas City Reserve Bank, citing a 19-month master account delay as a violation of due process and the Administrative Procedure Act. The lawsuit argues that non-Senate-confirmed officials making final decisions breaches the Constitution, warning that the delay harms innovative banks’ access to Federal Reserve services. “This unaccountable structure and indefinite delay deny critical rights,” Custodia stated, raising broader concerns for fintech and crypto sectors.

Contrasting the Federal Reserve’s cryptocurrency action with that of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Lummis further emphasized:

Unlike the OCC and FDIC, the Fed STILL uses reputation risk in bank supervision.

The senator warned that anti-crypto bias remains entrenched: “The Policy Statement on Section 9(13) hasn’t been withdrawn, which says bitcoin and digital assets are unsafe and unsound.” That policy, issued Jan. 27, 2023, discourages crypto-related activities at state member banks unless certain strict conditions are met.

Echoing Lummis’ concerns, Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long added her voice through social media platform X, stating: “The Fed didn’t rescind its Jan 27, 2023 anti-crypto guidance, which the Board voted 7-0 to approve at the time, but it appears to have rescinded all other guidance it issued without a Board vote.” Long questioned: “I think this means the Fed didn’t (yet) comply with Trump’s EO?” She opined:

Fed anti-crypto guidance is still in place, which means Fed-regulated banks are disadvantaged vs OCC or FDIC-regulated banks.

“The stablecoin bill, when it becomes law, would overturn this—but it ain’t over yet,” she said. Senator Lummis also pointed out: “Last but certainly not least, the Fed staff behind Operation Chokepoint 2.0 are the same people still working on crypto issues today.”##

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Bitcoin has attracted attention in the market with a sharp recovery in the evening hours. However, in the weekly market, price movements are at a critical point between a fluctuation range and a downtrend. In this analysis, we evaluate possible scenarios by examining Bitcoin's weekly technical indicators. We recommend a patient observation to avoid overly pessimistic approaches. Below, we provide a summary through moving averages, Bollinger Bands, volume-energy indicators, momentum indicators, and balanced market analyses.
1. Death Cross and MA30 Trend in Moving Averages
In the weekly market, after last week's rises and falls, Bitcoin is approaching the BBI ( Bollinger Band Indicator ) death cross and MA30 ( 30-day moving average ) trend. If the death cross occurs this week, the likelihood of a definite downward trend throughout March may increase. A renewed downward movement in the daily trend could resonate with the weekly cycle, initiating a more pronounced downward move. According to data from TradingView, the death cross ( death cross ) occurs when the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term average and is generally interpreted as a harbinger of a bear market ( TradingView, 2025).
2. Testing the Lower Bound of Bollinger Bands
In terms of Bollinger Bands, with the crash on the daily chart, the price of Bitcoin has declined to the weekly Bollinger lower band. This situation indicates that the cyclical trend may come earlier than expected. If a negative ( close occurs this week, the weekly downtrend may be triggered. Bollinger Bands are a tool used to measure price volatility, and touching the lower band often indicates an oversold region )Investopedia, 2025(. Therefore, the direction of the close this week is critically important.
3. Uncertainty in Volume and Energy Indicators
The Volume Rate indicator for March VR ) reflects the transfer movement. After this transaction is completed, it will become clear whether there is distribution in the market or a trap. However, the transfer process has not yet been completed this week, which increases the likelihood of the trend continuing downward. The OBV ( indicator has made a new low, but no divergence ) has formed yet and the moving average of the OBV has not turned down. This indicates that the overall trend has not fully formed yet. If consecutive negative days occur, a real collapse may be imminent. According to Glassnode's latest analysis, the decline in OBV confirms that momentum is weakening, but more data is needed for a definitive bear trend ( Glassnode, 2025).
4. Downward Resonance in Momentum Indicators
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MFI (Money Flow Index) are exhibiting a downside resonance. If there are consecutive bear days, this resonance can literally occur. CCI (Commodity Channel Index), on the other hand, needs to test the zero axis, which strengthens the possibility of a decline. A drop in the RSI below 30 is considered an oversold signal, while a drop in the CCI below zero may indicate increased selling pressure (Investopedia, 2025). Current data implies that the probability of a decline is more dominant than a bullish one.
5. The Necessity of Balanced Market and Patience
Balanced market analysis indicates that no direct crash is expected in the weekly chart over the next two weeks. However, weekly negative ( closures are needed to clarify the downtrend. In this case, the end of the Ichimoku Cloud may pull the price towards the cloud. When the time node is reached, the likelihood of the price hitting the cloud increases. Therefore, a patient approach should be adopted when evaluating the weekly chart. According to LiteFinance, tools like the Ichimoku Cloud are effective guides for understanding long-term trends )LiteFinance, 2025(.
Summary and Strategy
The weekly market of Bitcoin is currently balancing delicately between a consolidation range and a downtrend. Three consecutive bearish candles are needed for the downtrend to begin. Therefore, it will take time for the main trend to become clear, and extreme pessimistic approaches should be avoided. As a short-term trading strategy, the resistance level of 81,500/1,635 can be referenced for selling positions. The market will clarify its direction more clearly in the coming weeks.