Crypto JF17 Thunder Trader
Crypto Trader | Market Analyst Passionate about spotting trends & patterns Let’s grow and learn together in crypto!
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Current Range is a Trap: The market is consolidating to bait retail into longing.
Big Dip Ahead: Anticipated capitulation mirroring past cycles (~70–80% drop).
May 2026 = Cycle Bottom: Historically in sync with ~1.5 years post-halving (Apr 2024).
No Altseason This Cycle: Suggesting dominance stays with BTC; alts won’t see usual hype runs.
🔮 Potential Strategic Implications
Short-Term Traders: May want to stay cautious on longs at current levels.
Investors: Consider planning buys near the projected 2026 bottom zone ($30k–$40k region in your yellow box).
Alts Investors: Rebalance expectations — instead of a broad altseason, focus on strong fundamentals and real-world use cases.
Big Dip Ahead: Anticipated capitulation mirroring past cycles (~70–80% drop).
May 2026 = Cycle Bottom: Historically in sync with ~1.5 years post-halving (Apr 2024).
No Altseason This Cycle: Suggesting dominance stays with BTC; alts won’t see usual hype runs.
🔮 Potential Strategic Implications
Short-Term Traders: May want to stay cautious on longs at current levels.
Investors: Consider planning buys near the projected 2026 bottom zone ($30k–$40k region in your yellow box).
Alts Investors: Rebalance expectations — instead of a broad altseason, focus on strong fundamentals and real-world use cases.
$BTC
🔍 Key Highlights from the Chart
🟢 Bull Market Peaks
10 Nov 2021: Previous cycle top around ~$69,000.
14 Jul 2025 (Projected): Potential new bull market top (approx. $120K–$125K zone based on red trend line projection).
🔴 Bear Market Drops
2021–2022 Crash:
Drop of -78.75% from the 2021 top.
Lasted 52 bars (364 days).
Next Projected Bear Market:
Projected from July 2025 to May 2026.
Expected drawdown: -74.35%, possibly taking BTC down to the $30K–$40K range (orange box support zone).
📉 Correction Zones
Mid-cycle corrections like the one from Apr 2024, showing smaller drops (~20%).
📈 Trend Channel
Red diagonal lines form an ascending channel for bull market tops.
Current price (~$117,872) is nearing upper resistance of this long-term trend channel.
📊 Support/Resistance Levels
$120K & $125K: Horizontal resistance zones.
$57,959: Major historical support (former resistance).
$30K–$40K: Bear market bottom zone based on history and trendline confluence.
⏳ Cycle Timing
Historical cycles span about 4 years:
Peak → bottom → new peak = ~1,300–1,400 days.
This cycle’s timing aligns almost perfectly:
Nov 2021 → Jul 2025 = 1,300+ days (same as past cycles).
Suggests potential top is in or near.
📌 Summary & Outlook
Phase Estimate
Current Price ~$117,872
Projected Top ~$120K–$125K (likely topped 14 Jul 2025)
Next Major Drop -70% to -75% (target: $30K–$40K)
Next Cycle Low Mid 2026 (May–July 2026)
Strong Support Zone $30K–$40K (orange box)
🧭 Strategic Notes
If this chart pattern holds, major profit-taking should already be done or initiated.
Watch for weekly close rejections at trend channel top for confirmation of top formation.
Reentry in mid-2026 would historically offer a high reward/risk zone.
🔍 Key Highlights from the Chart
🟢 Bull Market Peaks
10 Nov 2021: Previous cycle top around ~$69,000.
14 Jul 2025 (Projected): Potential new bull market top (approx. $120K–$125K zone based on red trend line projection).
🔴 Bear Market Drops
2021–2022 Crash:
Drop of -78.75% from the 2021 top.
Lasted 52 bars (364 days).
Next Projected Bear Market:
Projected from July 2025 to May 2026.
Expected drawdown: -74.35%, possibly taking BTC down to the $30K–$40K range (orange box support zone).
📉 Correction Zones
Mid-cycle corrections like the one from Apr 2024, showing smaller drops (~20%).
📈 Trend Channel
Red diagonal lines form an ascending channel for bull market tops.
Current price (~$117,872) is nearing upper resistance of this long-term trend channel.
📊 Support/Resistance Levels
$120K & $125K: Horizontal resistance zones.
$57,959: Major historical support (former resistance).
$30K–$40K: Bear market bottom zone based on history and trendline confluence.
⏳ Cycle Timing
Historical cycles span about 4 years:
Peak → bottom → new peak = ~1,300–1,400 days.
This cycle’s timing aligns almost perfectly:
Nov 2021 → Jul 2025 = 1,300+ days (same as past cycles).
Suggests potential top is in or near.
📌 Summary & Outlook
Phase Estimate
Current Price ~$117,872
Projected Top ~$120K–$125K (likely topped 14 Jul 2025)
Next Major Drop -70% to -75% (target: $30K–$40K)
Next Cycle Low Mid 2026 (May–July 2026)
Strong Support Zone $30K–$40K (orange box)
🧭 Strategic Notes
If this chart pattern holds, major profit-taking should already be done or initiated.
Watch for weekly close rejections at trend channel top for confirmation of top formation.
Reentry in mid-2026 would historically offer a high reward/risk zone.
$BTC $ETH
USDT Dominance ( Biggest Market crash is very Near )
Key Observations:
1. Support and Resistance Levels:
Support at ~2.03% and 3.73% (Black & Blue Horizontal Lines).
Resistance at ~6.51% and 8.87%.
The price is currently hovering around 4.19%, testing a confluence of support zones (blue horizontal and rising trendline).
2. Chart Patterns:
Descending Broadening Wedge: The blue downward-sloping lines form a broadening wedge, typically a bullish reversal pattern.
Long-Term Uptrend Line Broken: The red ascending line (broken) shows a long-term trend that has been violated — now resistance.
Horizontal Zone at ~4.21%: Critical zone tested multiple times (marked with green arrows as support and red arrows as resistance).
3. MACD Histogram (Bottom Indicator):
Shows momentum shifts. It appears currently neutral to slightly bearish, as the red bars are decreasing but not yet turning green.
Implications:
Current Zone (4.19% - 4.21%) is Critical:
A bounce here could mean a potential short-term risk-off environment (USDT dominance rises).
A breakdown below 3.73% might signal strong bullish momentum in crypto (money flowing out of stablecoins into coins/tokens).
Upside Resistance Levels:
If dominance rises, next resistance is around 6.51%, then 8.87%.
Downside Risk:
Breakdown could bring USDT dominance towards the 2.03% support, marking a major altseason if sustained.
Conclusion:
This is a make-or-break area for USDT dominance. Traders might watch closely how price behaves around the 4.21% zone. A hold and bounce = caution in altcoins; a breakdown = likely crypto rally.
USDT Dominance ( Biggest Market crash is very Near )
Key Observations:
1. Support and Resistance Levels:
Support at ~2.03% and 3.73% (Black & Blue Horizontal Lines).
Resistance at ~6.51% and 8.87%.
The price is currently hovering around 4.19%, testing a confluence of support zones (blue horizontal and rising trendline).
2. Chart Patterns:
Descending Broadening Wedge: The blue downward-sloping lines form a broadening wedge, typically a bullish reversal pattern.
Long-Term Uptrend Line Broken: The red ascending line (broken) shows a long-term trend that has been violated — now resistance.
Horizontal Zone at ~4.21%: Critical zone tested multiple times (marked with green arrows as support and red arrows as resistance).
3. MACD Histogram (Bottom Indicator):
Shows momentum shifts. It appears currently neutral to slightly bearish, as the red bars are decreasing but not yet turning green.
Implications:
Current Zone (4.19% - 4.21%) is Critical:
A bounce here could mean a potential short-term risk-off environment (USDT dominance rises).
A breakdown below 3.73% might signal strong bullish momentum in crypto (money flowing out of stablecoins into coins/tokens).
Upside Resistance Levels:
If dominance rises, next resistance is around 6.51%, then 8.87%.
Downside Risk:
Breakdown could bring USDT dominance towards the 2.03% support, marking a major altseason if sustained.
Conclusion:
This is a make-or-break area for USDT dominance. Traders might watch closely how price behaves around the 4.21% zone. A hold and bounce = caution in altcoins; a breakdown = likely crypto rally.
🔍 Key Observations:
Current USDT Dominance: ~4.39%
Major Support Level: Around 3.76% (marked by the blue line), which has acted as a strong bottom multiple times since 2022.
Trend: USDT dominance has been forming lower highs, indicating a long-term downtrend, but with frequent bounces from the 3.75% area.
---
📈 Interpretation:
When USDT dominance drops, it usually means money is flowing out of stablecoins into crypto assets like BTC, ETH, and altcoins — typically bullish for the market.
When USDT dominance rises, capital is moving into USDT — a bearish or risk-off signal (traders exiting into safety).
The chart currently shows rejection from the 5% area and moving down toward the 3.76% support.
---
📊 What to Expect Next:
If USDT.D breaks below 3.76%: It could trigger a strong altcoin and BTC rally, as it would indicate capital rotation into riskier crypto assets.
If it bounces from 3.76% again: Market might consolidate or see a pullback in crypto prices.
---
🧠 Trading Insight:
Watch this level closely:
Below 3.76% = bullish breakout (favorable for risk-on crypto trades).
Rebound at 3.76% = caution, potential crypto cooling or correction.
Current USDT Dominance: ~4.39%
Major Support Level: Around 3.76% (marked by the blue line), which has acted as a strong bottom multiple times since 2022.
Trend: USDT dominance has been forming lower highs, indicating a long-term downtrend, but with frequent bounces from the 3.75% area.
---
📈 Interpretation:
When USDT dominance drops, it usually means money is flowing out of stablecoins into crypto assets like BTC, ETH, and altcoins — typically bullish for the market.
When USDT dominance rises, capital is moving into USDT — a bearish or risk-off signal (traders exiting into safety).
The chart currently shows rejection from the 5% area and moving down toward the 3.76% support.
---
📊 What to Expect Next:
If USDT.D breaks below 3.76%: It could trigger a strong altcoin and BTC rally, as it would indicate capital rotation into riskier crypto assets.
If it bounces from 3.76% again: Market might consolidate or see a pullback in crypto prices.
---
🧠 Trading Insight:
Watch this level closely:
Below 3.76% = bullish breakout (favorable for risk-on crypto trades).
Rebound at 3.76% = caution, potential crypto cooling or correction.
📊 Table Columns Explanation $BTC
1. Year – The calendar year.
2. Year Start – Bitcoin price at the start of the year.
3. Year End – Bitcoin price at the end of the year.
4. % Change – The annual percentage gain/loss.
---
🔍 Key Observations
🚀 Biggest Gains
2010: +9900% (early adoption phase, from $0.003 to $0.30)
2013: +5507%
2017: +1331%
2020: +301% (beginning of the post-halving bull run)
2023: +156% (recovery after 2022 bear market)
📉 Biggest Losses
2014: -58% (after 2013 bull run)
2018: -73% (post-2017 bull cycle crash)
2022: -65% (macroeconomic tightening, FTX collapse)
✅ 2025 YTD (Up to now):
Start: $93,300
Current: $116,000
Change: +24%
→ Bitcoin is performing decently in 2025 so far.
---
📈 Cycle Pattern
Bitcoin tends to follow a 4-year cycle:
Year 1: Bottom (e.g., 2015, 2019, 2023)
Year 2: Recovery (e.g., 2016, 2020, 2024)
Year 3: Bull run (e.g., 2017, 2021, 2025?)
Year 4: Crash (e.g., 2018, 2022)
So if this pattern continues, 2025 could be a top year, but we might see volatility increase later in the year.
1. Year – The calendar year.
2. Year Start – Bitcoin price at the start of the year.
3. Year End – Bitcoin price at the end of the year.
4. % Change – The annual percentage gain/loss.
---
🔍 Key Observations
🚀 Biggest Gains
2010: +9900% (early adoption phase, from $0.003 to $0.30)
2013: +5507%
2017: +1331%
2020: +301% (beginning of the post-halving bull run)
2023: +156% (recovery after 2022 bear market)
📉 Biggest Losses
2014: -58% (after 2013 bull run)
2018: -73% (post-2017 bull cycle crash)
2022: -65% (macroeconomic tightening, FTX collapse)
✅ 2025 YTD (Up to now):
Start: $93,300
Current: $116,000
Change: +24%
→ Bitcoin is performing decently in 2025 so far.
---
📈 Cycle Pattern
Bitcoin tends to follow a 4-year cycle:
Year 1: Bottom (e.g., 2015, 2019, 2023)
Year 2: Recovery (e.g., 2016, 2020, 2024)
Year 3: Bull run (e.g., 2017, 2021, 2025?)
Year 4: Crash (e.g., 2018, 2022)
So if this pattern continues, 2025 could be a top year, but we might see volatility increase later in the year.
#BTCWhaleMovement $BTC
📌 BTCUSDT Short Setup (Rejection at Resistance)
🚨 Trigger Condition:
Price fails to hold above 108,000 and gets rejected by the wedge resistance.
Watch for bearish candle formation (e.g., bearish engulfing or strong red candle near 108K–109K).
✅ Entry:
Entry zone: 107,800 – 108,200 USDT (rejection zone near upper wedge)
🛡️ Stop-Loss:
Above the recent wick high or wedge resistance breakout:
Stop-loss: 110,200 USDT
🎯 Targets:
1. Target 1: 105,500 USDT (minor support)
2. Target 2: 104,000 USDT (major horizontal support)
3. Target 3: 97,700 USDT (macro support & wedge bottom)
---
⚖️ Risk–Reward Ratio (approx.):
Entry: 108,000
Stop: 110,200 (2,200 loss)
Target 1: 105,500 (2,500 gain → 1.1R)
Target 2: 104,000 (4,000 gain → 1.8R)
Target 3: 97,700 (6,300 gain → 2.86R)
---
🔁 Trade Management Tips:
Secure partial profits at 105,500.
Move stop-loss to breakeven.
If momentum is strong, let rest ride to 97,700.
📌 BTCUSDT Short Setup (Rejection at Resistance)
🚨 Trigger Condition:
Price fails to hold above 108,000 and gets rejected by the wedge resistance.
Watch for bearish candle formation (e.g., bearish engulfing or strong red candle near 108K–109K).
✅ Entry:
Entry zone: 107,800 – 108,200 USDT (rejection zone near upper wedge)
🛡️ Stop-Loss:
Above the recent wick high or wedge resistance breakout:
Stop-loss: 110,200 USDT
🎯 Targets:
1. Target 1: 105,500 USDT (minor support)
2. Target 2: 104,000 USDT (major horizontal support)
3. Target 3: 97,700 USDT (macro support & wedge bottom)
---
⚖️ Risk–Reward Ratio (approx.):
Entry: 108,000
Stop: 110,200 (2,200 loss)
Target 1: 105,500 (2,500 gain → 1.1R)
Target 2: 104,000 (4,000 gain → 1.8R)
Target 3: 97,700 (6,300 gain → 2.86R)
---
🔁 Trade Management Tips:
Secure partial profits at 105,500.
Move stop-loss to breakeven.
If momentum is strong, let rest ride to 97,700.
📊 Bitcoin vs. M2: Historical Correlation Analysis
🔹 2010–2019 (Gradual M2 Growth)
M2: Slow, steady growth.
Bitcoin: Early-stage adoption → volatile but upward trend.
Correlation: Loose but developing. BTC reacted more to tech adoption and market cycles than monetary policy.
---
🔹 2020–2021 (M2 Surge During COVID Stimulus)
M2: Exploded from ~$15T to over $21T in just 18 months.
Bitcoin: Rose from ~$5K to $69K (ATH in Nov 2021).
Correlation: Very strong. Bitcoin acted as a hedge against fiat debasement and inflation expectations.
📌 This period cemented Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative.
---
🔹 2022–2023 (M2 Contraction & Tightening)
M2: Slight decline — rare in U.S. history.
Bitcoin: Fell from $69K to ~$15.5K by Nov 2022.
Correlation: Clear again. Liquidity shrinkage reduced speculation and risk appetite.
---
🔹 2024–2025 (M2 Begins Rising Again)
M2: Recent uptick (as shown in your chart).
Bitcoin: Recovered sharply, reaching above $70K before correcting.
Correlation: BTC tends to rise with liquidity return, especially when markets expect future easing.
---
📈 Summary Table:
Period M2 Trend Bitcoin Reaction Correlation
2010–2019 Gradual rise Volatile growth Weak–Moderate
2020–2021 Massive surge Explosive rally Strong
2022–2023 Slight decline Deep correction Strong
2024–2025 Rising again Recovery & volatility Moderate–Strong
---
📌 Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin thrives in liquidity expansion (rising M2).
Tight monetary policy & M2 contraction = bearish for BTC.
Market perception of future liquidity (not just current M2) is crucial for BTC price action.
🔹 2010–2019 (Gradual M2 Growth)
M2: Slow, steady growth.
Bitcoin: Early-stage adoption → volatile but upward trend.
Correlation: Loose but developing. BTC reacted more to tech adoption and market cycles than monetary policy.
---
🔹 2020–2021 (M2 Surge During COVID Stimulus)
M2: Exploded from ~$15T to over $21T in just 18 months.
Bitcoin: Rose from ~$5K to $69K (ATH in Nov 2021).
Correlation: Very strong. Bitcoin acted as a hedge against fiat debasement and inflation expectations.
📌 This period cemented Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative.
---
🔹 2022–2023 (M2 Contraction & Tightening)
M2: Slight decline — rare in U.S. history.
Bitcoin: Fell from $69K to ~$15.5K by Nov 2022.
Correlation: Clear again. Liquidity shrinkage reduced speculation and risk appetite.
---
🔹 2024–2025 (M2 Begins Rising Again)
M2: Recent uptick (as shown in your chart).
Bitcoin: Recovered sharply, reaching above $70K before correcting.
Correlation: BTC tends to rise with liquidity return, especially when markets expect future easing.
---
📈 Summary Table:
Period M2 Trend Bitcoin Reaction Correlation
2010–2019 Gradual rise Volatile growth Weak–Moderate
2020–2021 Massive surge Explosive rally Strong
2022–2023 Slight decline Deep correction Strong
2024–2025 Rising again Recovery & volatility Moderate–Strong
---
📌 Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin thrives in liquidity expansion (rising M2).
Tight monetary policy & M2 contraction = bearish for BTC.
Market perception of future liquidity (not just current M2) is crucial for BTC price action.
#TrumpVsMusk #BTC110KToday? $BTC This image illustrates a Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle psychology chart for 2024, suggesting that BTC has reached a cycle top at $120K, and the market is now in the “We’re Here” phase — typically associated with euphoria or peak optimism.
Key Phases Highlighted:
Hope → Belief → Euphoria ($120K top)
The next projected stages are:
Denial (misspelled as “Danial” in the image)
Panic
Anger
Depression
Final Disbelief before possible recovery
Interpretation:
The chart implies we are at the peak of the cycle, and a steep decline is expected next.
This matches classic Wall Street psychology cycle patterns, where emotions drive price action.
Key Takeaways:
If this projection is accurate, the worst part of the crash is still ahead.
A recovery and new disbelief phase could follow after a prolonged bear phase.
Investors should prepare for volatility and avoid getting trapped in emotional decisions.
Key Phases Highlighted:
Hope → Belief → Euphoria ($120K top)
The next projected stages are:
Denial (misspelled as “Danial” in the image)
Panic
Anger
Depression
Final Disbelief before possible recovery
Interpretation:
The chart implies we are at the peak of the cycle, and a steep decline is expected next.
This matches classic Wall Street psychology cycle patterns, where emotions drive price action.
Key Takeaways:
If this projection is accurate, the worst part of the crash is still ahead.
A recovery and new disbelief phase could follow after a prolonged bear phase.
Investors should prepare for volatility and avoid getting trapped in emotional decisions.
This image is a BTC Liquidation Heatmap from Coinglass, showing potential liquidation zones for leveraged positions over a 24-hour period.
🔍 Key Observations:
1. Heatmap Colors (Purple to Yellow/White):
Lighter colors (yellow/white) = Higher concentration of liquidation levels (more open leveraged positions around that price).
Darker purple = Lower activity/liquidity.
2. Price Levels (Right Axis):
The y-axis shows price levels, ranging roughly from 103,000 to 113,000.
3. Highlighted Zones (Green Boxes):
Upper Zone (~110,000 - 111,000):
Dense cluster of long liquidations. If price moves up, it could trigger a liquidity sweep — a fast wick to liquidate short positions.
Lower Zone (~105,500 - 106,500):
High concentration of long positions' liquidation zones. If price drops, many leveraged longs may get liquidated here.
---
📈 Trading Implications:
If BTC price rises sharply: Expect resistance around 110K–111K where short liquidations could occur.
If BTC dips further: The 105.5K–106.5K zone could act as a magnet, possibly forming a local bottom if many longs are wiped out.
⚠️ Strategy Note:
These heatmaps are often used by institutional players to predict and exploit liquidation liquidity. Watch these zones closely during high volatility periods.
🔍 Key Observations:
1. Heatmap Colors (Purple to Yellow/White):
Lighter colors (yellow/white) = Higher concentration of liquidation levels (more open leveraged positions around that price).
Darker purple = Lower activity/liquidity.
2. Price Levels (Right Axis):
The y-axis shows price levels, ranging roughly from 103,000 to 113,000.
3. Highlighted Zones (Green Boxes):
Upper Zone (~110,000 - 111,000):
Dense cluster of long liquidations. If price moves up, it could trigger a liquidity sweep — a fast wick to liquidate short positions.
Lower Zone (~105,500 - 106,500):
High concentration of long positions' liquidation zones. If price drops, many leveraged longs may get liquidated here.
---
📈 Trading Implications:
If BTC price rises sharply: Expect resistance around 110K–111K where short liquidations could occur.
If BTC dips further: The 105.5K–106.5K zone could act as a magnet, possibly forming a local bottom if many longs are wiped out.
⚠️ Strategy Note:
These heatmaps are often used by institutional players to predict and exploit liquidation liquidity. Watch these zones closely during high volatility periods.
BTC Profits have surpassed $650B more than the entire last cycle. But as the third wave of profit-taking fades, liquidity dries up and momentum dies. This is exactly how Black Swans are born: When everyone thinks the top is safe, the real collapse begins. Stay ready, patience is your only shiel.
#StrategyBTCPurchase #NEWTBinanceHODLer
#StrategyBTCPurchase #NEWTBinanceHODLer
🔍 Key Technical Observations: $BTC
Pattern Formation
Symmetrical Triangle: Price is compressing between lower highs and higher lows — a neutral consolidation pattern.
BTC is currently testing the upper resistance line of the triangle near $108,000–$110,000.
Support Levels
Immediate support: $107,981
Key zones below:
$105,513
$104,051
$97,670
Major support zone at $92,075 and $86,844
Resistance Levels
Immediate resistance: $108,013 (triangle top)
Breakout target: If broken, BTC could retest previous high zones around $115,000 and potentially aim for $120,000–$125,000 region.
Volume & MACD Histogram
The histogram is slightly negative, suggesting bearish momentum has slowed but not yet reversed.
A bullish breakout would need confirmation with increasing volume and histogram flipping green.
---
🔮 Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Breakout
If BTC breaks above $110,000 with strong volume:
Target 1: $115,000
Target 2: $120,000–$125,000
Confirmation: Daily candle close above triangle resistance
❌ Bearish Rejection
If price gets rejected here and breaks below $105,000:
Support retest at $97,670
Further downside to $92,075 or even $86,844 if selling pressure increases
---
📌 Strategy Suggestion:
Aggressive Entry: Buy on breakout + volume above $110K
Conservative Entry: Wait for daily candle close + retest above breakout
Stop-Loss: Below $104,000 (previous swing low)
Short Setup: On rejection at resistance with breakdown below $105K
Pattern Formation
Symmetrical Triangle: Price is compressing between lower highs and higher lows — a neutral consolidation pattern.
BTC is currently testing the upper resistance line of the triangle near $108,000–$110,000.
Support Levels
Immediate support: $107,981
Key zones below:
$105,513
$104,051
$97,670
Major support zone at $92,075 and $86,844
Resistance Levels
Immediate resistance: $108,013 (triangle top)
Breakout target: If broken, BTC could retest previous high zones around $115,000 and potentially aim for $120,000–$125,000 region.
Volume & MACD Histogram
The histogram is slightly negative, suggesting bearish momentum has slowed but not yet reversed.
A bullish breakout would need confirmation with increasing volume and histogram flipping green.
---
🔮 Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Breakout
If BTC breaks above $110,000 with strong volume:
Target 1: $115,000
Target 2: $120,000–$125,000
Confirmation: Daily candle close above triangle resistance
❌ Bearish Rejection
If price gets rejected here and breaks below $105,000:
Support retest at $97,670
Further downside to $92,075 or even $86,844 if selling pressure increases
---
📌 Strategy Suggestion:
Aggressive Entry: Buy on breakout + volume above $110K
Conservative Entry: Wait for daily candle close + retest above breakout
Stop-Loss: Below $104,000 (previous swing low)
Short Setup: On rejection at resistance with breakdown below $105K
Bitcoin (BTC): The Pioneer of Digital Currency
Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s first and most valuable cryptocurrency, has transformed from a niche technological experiment into a global financial asset class. Since its inception in 2009 by the pseudonymous developer Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin has sparked an entire industry centered around blockchain technology, digital assets, and decentralized finance.
What Is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that allows peer-to-peer transactions without the need for a central authority like a bank or government. It operates on a technology called blockchain—a public, immutable ledger that records all Bitcoin transactions. This system ensures transparency and security, as every participant in the network has access to the same transaction data.
The total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, making it inherently deflationary. This scarcity is one of the key reasons Bitcoin is often referred to as "digital gold."
Why Is Bitcoin Important?
1. Store of Value: Many investors consider Bitcoin a hedge against inflation and economic instability. Its limited supply and decentralized nature make it attractive as a digital store of value.
2. Financial Inclusion: Bitcoin provides access to financial services for millions of people worldwide who are unbanked or underbanked.
3. Decentralization: It challenges traditional financial systems by allowing people to control their own money without intermediaries.
Bitcoin’s Market Influence
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization and often dictates the overall direction of the crypto market. When BTC moves, altcoins tend to follow. Institutional adoption has grown, with major companies and financial firms integrating Bitcoin into their investment portfolios or accepting it as payment.
Current Trends and Developments
ETFs and Regulation: The approval of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in several countries has brought BTC closer to traditional finance, increasing accessibility for retail and institutional investors.
Halving Events: Bitcoin's reward halving (occurring roughly every 4 years) reduces the block reward for miners and typically precedes significant price rallies. The next halving is expected in 2028.
Layer 2 Solutions: Technologies like the Lightning Network aim to solve Bitcoin's scalability issues, enabling faster and cheaper transactions.
Challenges
Volatility: Bitcoin’s price can fluctuate wildly, making it a risky short-term investment.
Regulatory Uncertainty: Different countries have different stances on crypto, from full acceptance to outright bans.
Environmental Concerns: Bitcoin mining consumes significant energy, raising questions about its sustainability. However, there's a growing shift toward greener mining practices.
The Future of Bitcoin
Bitcoin is steadily moving from speculation to adoption. As the global economy digitizes, Bitcoin may play a central role in reshaping how we understand money and value. With ongoing technological development, increased regulatory clarity, and broader mainstream awareness, Bitcoin is poised to remain a key player in the financial world for years to come.
$BTC
What Is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that allows peer-to-peer transactions without the need for a central authority like a bank or government. It operates on a technology called blockchain—a public, immutable ledger that records all Bitcoin transactions. This system ensures transparency and security, as every participant in the network has access to the same transaction data.
The total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, making it inherently deflationary. This scarcity is one of the key reasons Bitcoin is often referred to as "digital gold."
Why Is Bitcoin Important?
1. Store of Value: Many investors consider Bitcoin a hedge against inflation and economic instability. Its limited supply and decentralized nature make it attractive as a digital store of value.
2. Financial Inclusion: Bitcoin provides access to financial services for millions of people worldwide who are unbanked or underbanked.
3. Decentralization: It challenges traditional financial systems by allowing people to control their own money without intermediaries.
Bitcoin’s Market Influence
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization and often dictates the overall direction of the crypto market. When BTC moves, altcoins tend to follow. Institutional adoption has grown, with major companies and financial firms integrating Bitcoin into their investment portfolios or accepting it as payment.
Current Trends and Developments
ETFs and Regulation: The approval of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in several countries has brought BTC closer to traditional finance, increasing accessibility for retail and institutional investors.
Halving Events: Bitcoin's reward halving (occurring roughly every 4 years) reduces the block reward for miners and typically precedes significant price rallies. The next halving is expected in 2028.
Layer 2 Solutions: Technologies like the Lightning Network aim to solve Bitcoin's scalability issues, enabling faster and cheaper transactions.
Challenges
Volatility: Bitcoin’s price can fluctuate wildly, making it a risky short-term investment.
Regulatory Uncertainty: Different countries have different stances on crypto, from full acceptance to outright bans.
Environmental Concerns: Bitcoin mining consumes significant energy, raising questions about its sustainability. However, there's a growing shift toward greener mining practices.
The Future of Bitcoin
Bitcoin is steadily moving from speculation to adoption. As the global economy digitizes, Bitcoin may play a central role in reshaping how we understand money and value. With ongoing technological development, increased regulatory clarity, and broader mainstream awareness, Bitcoin is poised to remain a key player in the financial world for years to come.
$BTC
$ETH
📅 ETH/USD Daily Trade Setup (as of June 29, 2025)
🎯 Strategy: Support Bounce + Bullish Continuation (Higher Low Forming)
---
📍 Current Price: ~$2,430
Price is forming a potential higher low above the strong confluence support (~$2,185) and trying to reclaim bullish momentum.
---
✅ LONG Setup (Bullish Bias)
🛒 Entry Zone:
Ideal Buy Range: $2,400 – $2,450 (wait for a strong green daily candle to confirm strength)
🛡️ Stop-Loss:
Below is the most recent swing low or invalidation level
Suggested SL: $2,170 (below both daily structure + weekly trendline)
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
1. TP1: $2,680 – recent local high / resistance
2. TP2: $2,950 – psychological resistance zone
3. TP3: $3,250 – major breakout target
---
⚖️ Risk-Reward Ratio (approx.):
Risk: ~$230 per ETH (from $2,400 entry to $2,170 SL)
Reward to TP1: ~$280 → RR = 1.2:1
Reward to TP2: ~$550 → RR = 2.4:1
Reward to TP3: ~$850 → RR = 3.7:1
---
🔍 Confluence Factors:
Holding above ascending trendline
Support at $2,185 aligning with previous demand zone
MACD histogram on daily likely crossing into positive soon
---
🧨 Invalidation:
A daily close below $2,170 would invalidate this setup and favor a deeper correction toward $2,000–$1,850.
---
📉 Alternative Short Setup (if breakdown occurs):
If ETH closes below $2,170, consider:
Short Entry: $2,150–$2,170
TP: $1,950 → $1,800
SL: $2,250
RR: Around 2.5:1
📅 ETH/USD Daily Trade Setup (as of June 29, 2025)
🎯 Strategy: Support Bounce + Bullish Continuation (Higher Low Forming)
---
📍 Current Price: ~$2,430
Price is forming a potential higher low above the strong confluence support (~$2,185) and trying to reclaim bullish momentum.
---
✅ LONG Setup (Bullish Bias)
🛒 Entry Zone:
Ideal Buy Range: $2,400 – $2,450 (wait for a strong green daily candle to confirm strength)
🛡️ Stop-Loss:
Below is the most recent swing low or invalidation level
Suggested SL: $2,170 (below both daily structure + weekly trendline)
🎯 Take Profit Targets:
1. TP1: $2,680 – recent local high / resistance
2. TP2: $2,950 – psychological resistance zone
3. TP3: $3,250 – major breakout target
---
⚖️ Risk-Reward Ratio (approx.):
Risk: ~$230 per ETH (from $2,400 entry to $2,170 SL)
Reward to TP1: ~$280 → RR = 1.2:1
Reward to TP2: ~$550 → RR = 2.4:1
Reward to TP3: ~$850 → RR = 3.7:1
---
🔍 Confluence Factors:
Holding above ascending trendline
Support at $2,185 aligning with previous demand zone
MACD histogram on daily likely crossing into positive soon
---
🧨 Invalidation:
A daily close below $2,170 would invalidate this setup and favor a deeper correction toward $2,000–$1,850.
---
📉 Alternative Short Setup (if breakdown occurs):
If ETH closes below $2,170, consider:
Short Entry: $2,150–$2,170
TP: $1,950 → $1,800
SL: $2,250
RR: Around 2.5:1
$DOT #DOT_UPDATE
📉 Overall Trend Summary:
Long-term Trend: Strong downtrend since November 2021
Current Price: ~$3.35
Key Support: ~$3.60 (being tested or broken)
Key Resistance: ~$6.00 – $7.00 (previous local highs)
🔍 Detailed Observations:
1. Historical Context:
DOT peaked near $55 in 2021 during the last bull market.
It has since formed a macro downtrend, with successive lower highs and lower lows.
Price has dropped over 93% from its ATH.
2. Support Zone Testing:
The current level is around $3.30–$3.60 is a multi-year support zone from 2020 and 2023.
Price is currently testing this critical support. A weekly close below ~$3.30 would be bearish and could open the door for:
$2.80
Or worst-case capitulation to ~$2.00–$2.50 range
3. Volume and Market Structure:
Volume is low, suggesting reduced retail and institutional interest.
No signs of a strong reversal yet (like bullish divergence or a bottoming pattern).
4. Macro Factors:
This long sideways pattern may be accumulation, especially if Bitcoin is in a transition phase (e.g., pre-bull cycle).
Altcoins like DOT tend to lag BTC in recovery, so early reversal signs will likely depend on BTC strength above $70k.
---
📊 Possible Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Case (less likely short term):
Price reclaims $3.60 and confirms a false breakdown (bear trap)
Breaks above $5.50–$6.00 = trigger for possible rally to $8–10
Would require broad crypto market recovery or Polkadot ecosystem news
❌ Bearish Case (more likely near term):
Weekly close below $3.30 leads to flush down
Targets: $2.80 → $2.50 → long-term demand zone near $2.00
---
🧠 Strategy Thoughts:
For long-term investors: This is potentially a high-risk, high-reward accumulation zone, especially for those who believe in Polkadot's tech and long-term adoption.
For traders: Avoid entering until:
Clear reclaim of support ($3.60+)
OR signs of bullish divergence on RSI/MACD
📉 Overall Trend Summary:
Long-term Trend: Strong downtrend since November 2021
Current Price: ~$3.35
Key Support: ~$3.60 (being tested or broken)
Key Resistance: ~$6.00 – $7.00 (previous local highs)
🔍 Detailed Observations:
1. Historical Context:
DOT peaked near $55 in 2021 during the last bull market.
It has since formed a macro downtrend, with successive lower highs and lower lows.
Price has dropped over 93% from its ATH.
2. Support Zone Testing:
The current level is around $3.30–$3.60 is a multi-year support zone from 2020 and 2023.
Price is currently testing this critical support. A weekly close below ~$3.30 would be bearish and could open the door for:
$2.80
Or worst-case capitulation to ~$2.00–$2.50 range
3. Volume and Market Structure:
Volume is low, suggesting reduced retail and institutional interest.
No signs of a strong reversal yet (like bullish divergence or a bottoming pattern).
4. Macro Factors:
This long sideways pattern may be accumulation, especially if Bitcoin is in a transition phase (e.g., pre-bull cycle).
Altcoins like DOT tend to lag BTC in recovery, so early reversal signs will likely depend on BTC strength above $70k.
---
📊 Possible Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Case (less likely short term):
Price reclaims $3.60 and confirms a false breakdown (bear trap)
Breaks above $5.50–$6.00 = trigger for possible rally to $8–10
Would require broad crypto market recovery or Polkadot ecosystem news
❌ Bearish Case (more likely near term):
Weekly close below $3.30 leads to flush down
Targets: $2.80 → $2.50 → long-term demand zone near $2.00
---
🧠 Strategy Thoughts:
For long-term investors: This is potentially a high-risk, high-reward accumulation zone, especially for those who believe in Polkadot's tech and long-term adoption.
For traders: Avoid entering until:
Clear reclaim of support ($3.60+)
OR signs of bullish divergence on RSI/MACD
in bull run never short anything. wait to retest and long only
$BTC increase But I Am Don't Happy
Please BTC Help Me 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
#BTCNewATH #BTC500K #Btctopcrypto
Please BTC Help Me 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
#BTCNewATH #BTC500K #Btctopcrypto
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