$BTC

🔍 Key Highlights from the Chart

🟢 Bull Market Peaks

10 Nov 2021: Previous cycle top around ~$69,000.

14 Jul 2025 (Projected): Potential new bull market top (approx. $120K–$125K zone based on red trend line projection).

🔴 Bear Market Drops

2021–2022 Crash:

Drop of -78.75% from the 2021 top.

Lasted 52 bars (364 days).

Next Projected Bear Market:

Projected from July 2025 to May 2026.

Expected drawdown: -74.35%, possibly taking BTC down to the $30K–$40K range (orange box support zone).

📉 Correction Zones

Mid-cycle corrections like the one from Apr 2024, showing smaller drops (~20%).

📈 Trend Channel

Red diagonal lines form an ascending channel for bull market tops.

Current price (~$117,872) is nearing upper resistance of this long-term trend channel.

📊 Support/Resistance Levels

$120K & $125K: Horizontal resistance zones.

$57,959: Major historical support (former resistance).

$30K–$40K: Bear market bottom zone based on history and trendline confluence.

⏳ Cycle Timing

Historical cycles span about 4 years:

Peak → bottom → new peak = ~1,300–1,400 days.

This cycle’s timing aligns almost perfectly:

Nov 2021 → Jul 2025 = 1,300+ days (same as past cycles).

Suggests potential top is in or near.

📌 Summary & Outlook

Phase Estimate

Current Price ~$117,872

Projected Top ~$120K–$125K (likely topped 14 Jul 2025)

Next Major Drop -70% to -75% (target: $30K–$40K)

Next Cycle Low Mid 2026 (May–July 2026)

Strong Support Zone $30K–$40K (orange box)

🧭 Strategic Notes

If this chart pattern holds, major profit-taking should already be done or initiated.

Watch for weekly close rejections at trend channel top for confirmation of top formation.

Reentry in mid-2026 would historically offer a high reward/risk zone.