On a macro level, the on-chain analysis platform Arkham disclosed important information on platform X. Previously, a massive transfer of over 80,000 Bitcoins by an ancient whale may be related to an address upgrade operation, migrating assets from old addresses starting with '1-' to new addresses starting with 'bc1q-', with no signs of selling so far. This adds a layer of uncertainty to the Bitcoin market.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin market exhibits a unique trend of inventory change. Data indicates that the current Bitcoin reserves on various platforms have reached a nearly five-year low. Since November 2024, regardless of how the price fluctuates, platform reserves have continued to decline. This phenomenon indicates that players are continuously buying or withdrawing, reflecting a general lack of willingness among market participants to exit in the short term, while maintaining confidence in long-term Bitcoin holdings.
In the U.S., the tariff policy has become a focal point for market attention. U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant has clearly stated that if a relevant agreement is not reached by August 1, tariffs will be restored to April levels. Notably, after Basant announced the tariff partnership, the market reacted swiftly. The Bitcoin market demonstrated a keen sense of smell, completing the information switch from the 'Trump-Ma dispute' to tariff policy before U.S. stocks had a chance to react following the three-day holiday, becoming a leading indicator of market sentiment changes.
On-chain data shows that the turnover rate in the Bitcoin market is at a low level, with most players taking a wait-and-see attitude towards the current situation. Only a few players who chased higher prices in the past two days have shown slight exits, leaving the overall market activity lacking.
Overall, the $93,000 and $98,000 range constitutes strong support, while the $103,000 to $107,500 range continues to accumulate Bitcoin, forming normal support. In the short term, Bitcoin will maintain a fluctuating trend. Although there is a possibility of reaching new highs, the lack of market momentum makes the sustainability of future market conditions uncertain, with heightened risks of pullbacks after peaks. This week's game around tariff policy may become a key factor affecting Bitcoin's trend.
