As of the close on July 11 (8 AM Beijing time), the STH-MVRV indicator reported 1.17. Although it has not reached the key level of 1.18, it has entered the critical zone, and short-term market sentiment is at a sensitive point.
(Figure 1)
Affected by yesterday's price fluctuations, the extreme deviation pricing range has significantly shifted upwards, with the current orange line resistance level near $118,000. The price has not yet formed an effective breakthrough, and the battle between bulls and bears continues.
(Figure 2)
The current value of the AVIV indicator is 1.60, which is very close to the +1 sd blue line of 1.63. Historical data shows that breaking through this range may replicate the trending market seen in March and November 2024, but caution is needed due to the lessons learned from the past 5 failed breakouts or false breakouts.
(Figure 3)
The market is currently in a probabilistic game stage. Even if the indicators approach the critical point, multiple response plans must be prepared. The trading plan should cover scenarios such as failed breakouts, false breakouts, and effective breakouts, avoiding decisions driven by emotions.
