The recent performance of long-term holders' realized profit and loss ratio (LTH-R/L) has broken the market's inherent expectations. It not only did not operate in the preset direction but instead set a 'higher high 4'. From a global trend analysis, the price rise from July 10 to 11 is actually a natural continuation of the market since April, and this continuation process will only end when the indicator falls to the low point C.

(Figure 1)

Based on this, changes in key points such as sth-mvrv divergence, extreme pricing ranges, and aviv +1sd become particularly important. Once these indicators collectively break through, the current market trend will gain stronger momentum support, and what was previously seen as a 'low probability' of continuous rise may change to a 'high probability' event.

The ability of LTH-R/L to set a new high means that new funds are continuously flowing into the market, driving prices up and giving some long-term held high floating profit chips the opportunity to cash out at high levels. At the same time, current on-chain liquidity is relatively low, indicating that the overall chips are more inclined to hold rather than sell. This is not 'selling being blocked', but rather 'holders actively choosing to hold back'.

Looking back at historical cycles, only the 2017-2018 period showed a similar LTH-R/L trend — first a lower high, followed by a new higher high (see Figure 2). During other peak phases, the highs of this indicator generally showed a trend of gradual decline, ultimately leading to the formation of a 'top' in Bitcoin prices.

(Figure 2)

Even in the case of 2017-2018, after LTH-R/L reached a new high, Bitcoin still experienced a 30% pullback. This is because when long-term holders accumulate floating profits to a certain extent, it can easily trigger concentrated selling. However, it should be noted that in this cycle, the proportion of chips held long-term by institutions is higher, indicating a significant change in the underlying logic of the market.

Therefore, we need to abandon mechanical historical references and objectively view the logic of the indicators: LTH-R/L strengthening after marginal decline is essentially a reflection of new demand entering the market. The key to the current market lies in whether this demand can continue to be released.

If subsequent highs exceed 'High Point 4', the continuation of the market will be finally confirmed. It is foreseeable that by then, sth-mvrv divergence, extreme pricing ranges, aviv +1sd, and other constraints will no longer exist.#BTC再创新高