Master discusses hot topics:
This week's focus is very clear: On Tuesday, the U.S. tariff suspension period ends, and on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes will be released. These two events—one affecting foreign trade and the other managing liquidity—are both very likely to trigger sudden market changes, and the direction is likely to be hedged.
These days, some people have been waiting to see 80,000 bitcoins crash the market, but what happened? Nothing at all. The brothers who shorted are probably still stuck, so stop daydreaming. Now we can take a look at the supply of bitcoins on the exchanges; it's very clear.
In fact, since last November, regardless of whether bitcoin rises or falls, the supply of bitcoin on exchanges has been continuously decreasing, reaching the lowest point in nearly five years. What does this indicate?
To put it simply, someone is quietly buying, taking their profits, and no one wants to run away. Under this consensus, unless there's a shocking systemic risk in the cryptocurrency world, there really isn't anything that can cut the price in half.
In the current environment, good news keeps coming, even 'false good news' is enough to pull up a large bullish candle. Besant just mentioned a tariff partnership, and the market immediately reacted. The U.S. stock market hasn't even opened, and the bitcoin market has already surged; how can you make a medium-term short under such sentiment?
Moreover, the market is not about logic right now; it's about sentiment. Bitcoin has transitioned from trade wars to tariff reconciliation, and this plot twist is faster than palace intrigue, not giving you a moment to breathe. The supply on exchanges is the only stabilizer in this play, and it's the most accurate barometer.
Returning to the market, it is evident that 110.6K is about to be targeted for liquidity extraction, luring longs and killing shorts, and then it may continue to surge. Above, there is the potential new high temptation at 110.2K, and below, there are liquidity pockets at 105K and 98K.
But to be honest, if it is to drop, it has to wait for the main force to consume enough above before a pullback is possible. Right now, there is basically no strong resistance between 108.8K and 110K, making it seem like a good chase, but entering could easily lead to high positions. If you want to chase, you need to wait for a breakout above 110.2K followed by a pullback confirmation; otherwise, it’s better to wait for it to fill the gap around 108.4K before considering an entry.
To conclude, the market has not yet completed its move. Unless negative news can break through 100K and pierce through 96K, it cannot be considered structural damage. There was no major adjustment in July, and if Japan truly raises interest rates in August, then there could be a real killer move.
Master observes the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 110200
First resistance level: 109600
Support level reference:
Second support level: 109000
First support level: 108500
On the hourly level, the current market is in a reasonable pullback and a re-upward structure. The short-term upward trend line has been confirmed, and the gap area between the previous highs and lows (from 108.5K to 109K) forms a dense short-term support zone.
Currently, the price is moving between 109K and 109.6K, showing a volatile box pattern. Overall, I maintain a bullish outlook, but I do not recommend blindly chasing prices. During the day, one can pay attention to low-buying opportunities during pullbacks. The RSI has now entered the overbought zone, waiting for a pullback to look for entry opportunities.
The first pressure level of 109.6K serves as an important short-term resistance. If it is touched for the first time, a short-term pullback will occur. You can wait for a pullback and then look for low-buy opportunities based on the short-term trend line.
The second pressure level of 110.2K is a previous breakout point that attempted to break through but failed. If it successfully breaks this time, it is expected to further challenge previous highs and initiate a new round of increases.
The first support level of 109K is the previous high point at the beginning of this round of increases. If the price can effectively hold this level after a pullback, it will continue to maintain a short-term rebound structure.
The second support level of 108.5K, if it adjusts further to this level, is also within a reasonable pullback range. Below, there are multiple moving averages (20MA, 60MA, 120MA, 200MA) to provide support in batches, allowing for gradual entry to buy low.
Additionally, 110K is a key psychological pressure point. Until it is effectively broken, the price will repeatedly experience pullbacks, rebounds, and retests.
Be cautious about chasing highs during the day.
7.7 Master’s segment preparation:
Long entry reference: Gradual buying in the range of 108500-109000. Target: 109600-110200.
Short entry reference: Short directly after breaking 107800 and failing to reclaim 107800. Target: 106000.
If you genuinely want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after seeing a few market movements. This market is filled with performative players; screenshots of long positions today and summaries of short positions tomorrow may look like they 'always catch the tops and bottoms,' but in reality, they are merely afterthoughts. A truly noteworthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and in-depth understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!