Advisor discusses hot topics:
It's only Tuesday, and I'm already feeling that this week's market is truly unbearable. I mentioned a few days ago that this week would return to the tariff and monetary policy market.
As expected, Trump did not disappoint and directly informed 14 countries including Japan, South Korea, and South Africa about taxation. Then he issued an executive order, saying that the reciprocal tariffs would be postponed until August 1st.
Does everyone understand? There is talk about the timing of August 1st. Because on July 31st, Japan might raise interest rates, if these two things happen together, the market will drop sharply. Personally, I might not be able to withstand it.
However, from a structural perspective, Bitcoin is still in a bullish pattern and has not broken down. There is some short-term volatility, but the pullbacks are basically opportunities, not traps. The entire third quarter can be summed up as a game period; whether it's difficult or not, you'll figure it out yourself. Anyway, if you don't think critically, you'll easily fall into traps by the market.
Moreover, the turnover rate on the previous Monday was even lower than on Sunday. Market sentiment is quite weak, and everyone is focusing on July 9, fearing that Trump will pull another stunt.
Currently, the main chips for Bitcoin are concentrated between 104K and 108.5K, with a stock of nearly 2.2 million coins, which is relatively stable. It mainly depends on the US stock market, as long as there is no waterfall in the US stocks, Bitcoin still follows closely behind the S&P and Nasdaq. If the US stocks do not collapse, it can hold up.
Back to the market, the trend this week, from my perspective, will rise from Monday to Wednesday, then fall, with a high probability of rebound on Thursday and Friday. Because on Wednesday night, the Federal Reserve's minutes will likely soften the tone and sweeten the deal, giving the market a little sugar. The structure is still moving upwards because the bottom of the oscillation is getting higher.
The key point is that the current support is at 107K. As long as this level does not break, it is still bullish, oscillating upwards, and continue to push. The previous support from 105K to 106K, to be frank, cannot hold, so don't expect too much.
If it really breaks below 107K and can't go up to 108K, that would be troublesome, continue to look down, strong support is at 102K. We are currently in a battleground between bulls and bears, with support and resistance swapping identities. It will be a fight of who flinches first.
By the way, some people hold their positions for no more than 4 hours. As a result, they worry every day about whether the weekly trend is bearish or bullish. What impact does this have on your short positions?
But the reality is that Bitcoin is sucking blood while altcoins are being cut to an indescribable extent. This cycle is just one word: tragic! Even if you’ve stolen tax money or cheated on your girlfriend, doing anything bad doesn't compare to buying a few altcoins. If you have a larger position, the losses can clear your past life debts, it's just too much life for you, buddy!
So stop dreaming, in the current market, there are really no more than three coins that can make steady profits. Bitcoin is like a central air conditioning, blowing comfortably while making the altcoins shiver.
Advisor sees the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 109700.
First resistance level: 108500.
Support level reference:
Second support level: 106600.
First support level: 105300.
The current 4-hour level trend is leaning towards a short-term decline. Pay attention to the support near the rising trend line, wait for stabilization on the pullback before entering, and the 120 and 200-day moving averages near the rising trend line are also short-term supports.
Currently, the coin price is oscillating between 106.6K and 108K, and the current trading volume has clearly shrunk. In this low-volume situation, one should be wary of further declines.
The first resistance level at 108.5K is the previous high area; if it was held before, it would continue to rise. But it has now effectively broken down and turned into a resistance level.
Before looking at the second resistance level at 109.7K, first confirm whether the support below is solid. If 108.5K can be reclaimed and stabilized, then the area around 110K may be tested again.
The first support level at 106.6K is currently key support, where the rising trend line and moving averages overlap, providing certain technical support strength. It can be considered as a starting point for accumulating positions.
If the second support level at 105.3K is lost, it will mean the rising trend line has been officially broken, and the trend will shift to an accelerated decline mode. Maintain a short-term bearish view overall for the day, paying attention to whether the decline stops at the key support level. Once it stabilizes, it could shift to a rebound strategy for operation.
7.8 Advisor's wave phase embedding:
Long entry reference: 106600-107300 range, accumulate in batches. Target: 108500-109700.
Short entry reference: 109000-109700 range, accumulate in batches. Target: 106600-105300.
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just make rash conclusions after watching a few market movements. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions. It looks like they are 'always catching tops and bottoms', but in reality, it's all hindsight. A blogger worth following must have a consistent, coherent trading logic that can stand scrutiny, not just jumping in when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots. Only through long-term observation and deep understanding can you discern who is a thinker and who is a dream maker!
