Advisor discusses hot topics:
Continuing from my analysis yesterday, I mentioned doing a little continuation; a few days ago I said the focus of the market this week is tariffs. But now the key of the market is no longer tariffs, but inflation. The tariff actions from the administration are, in plain terms, just to scare the market.
If it were really going to crash down, it would have done so by now; the market is already immune. Unless it suddenly goes crazy and executes directly before August 1st, it’s worth being alert; otherwise, the current impact is just emotional, at most some verbal sparring.
But inflation is different; once the CPI data explodes next week, the Fed’s rate cut expectations may vanish immediately. The impact of this is far greater than any trade war.
If these things come together, the market’s inflation expectations will soar, then the pressure on risk assets will truly come. In simple terms, it's not about whether tariffs are imposed or not, but whether inflation can withstand it; this is the core conflict for the next month.
Returning to the market, I forgot to mention yesterday that Bitcoin tested 107K twice without breaking through, and it can't be cleared, which means they don't want it to drop. Just look at the data, the spot premium is dropping, but the funding rate is rising, what does this indicate?
In simple terms, the long positions in the contracts are being firmly supported, not because the market wants to rise, but because there is no one to take on the downside, or the liquidity of the shorts above is more appealing. In this case, blindly shorting can only lead to losses.
So my view is very simple: as long as 107K is not broken, continue to be bullish. If it really breaks, it’s not too late to short to 105.8K. The trend structure has no new lows, so why short?
What I expect more is to clear the shorts below 113K in July, then it will be the real time for the bulls to take off. It doesn’t matter whether a new high is broken or not; the key is to follow the trend and not to bet on turning points prematurely.
Let’s talk about Ethereum, it’s also interesting. Major funds have flowed from Bitcoin to Ethereum, which is rare. Ethereum and ETH/BTC have been consolidating for almost two months, and it’s unrealistic not to move in a direction. Moreover, ETFs and US companies are buying every day, and SBET keeps rising.
Looking at the 4-hour level, after pulling back to the key level of 2514 early Monday morning, it rallied to near the previous high of 2600. The large resistance at 2680-2740 remains fierce, and the order book shows that the resistance at 2600 has been repeatedly tested and is showing signs of weakening, increasing the probability of an upward break.
However, there is heavy selling pressure above 2740, with thick orders at 2720, so it’s unrealistic to expect to push to 2800+ in one go; 3000 is also possible, but not in the short term. I see that a reasonable position in the short to medium term is around 2740, so aggressive players should be cautious!
Advisor looks at trends:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 109700
First resistance level: 109100
Support level reference:
Second support level: 108300
First support level: 107800
First reference the previous price consolidation range from 107.8K to 108.3K, which is also a key short-term support area. Currently, there is short-term upward trend line support, and the 200-day moving average trend should also be noted.
The range from 107.8K to 108.3K combined with the 200MA is the key area for the current long and short game; if the current downward trend line that is being tested can be broken, a rapid rise will occur in the short term.
The first resistance level at 109.1K, if broken, will first break the downward trend line, triggering a short-term rally. It is recommended to observe whether the price stabilizes between 109K and 109.1K; if it stabilizes, one may enter short-term long positions.
If the price successfully breaks the first resistance and stabilizes around 109K, then we can continue to look bullish. But when near 109.7K, we need to pay attention to whether the RSI enters the overbought zone, guarding against a short-term pullback.
The first support level at 108.3K is also in the range of the 200MA; if this range is not broken during the day, the upper pressure line will be tested again. The lower edge of the weekend consolidation range is currently an important support zone; if it breaks, it will further decline in the short term, and one may gradually buy near 107K.
7.9 Advisor's segment:
Long entry reference: 107000-107800 range in batches, target: 109700-109700
Short entry reference: 109100-109700 range in batches, target: 108300-107800
