Macroeconomic interpretation: At 20:30 tonight, the global financial markets hold their breath—U.S. core price index for May is about to be revealed. Economists generally expect a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. If the actual data is lower than expected, as predicted by Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, the Federal Reserve's rate cut path will become clear. Coincidentally, on the eve of the data release, the three major U.S. stock index futures collectively reached historic peaks: S&P 500 futures broke 6,145 points, and Nasdaq futures climbed to a high of 20,180 points. Generally, this kind of linkage effect is becoming a key driver for breaking through—if the Fed shifts towards easing as expected, institutional funds continuing to flow in may push Bitcoin through the strong resistance zone of $109,000.
Market optimism is not unfounded. Institutional reports reveal subtle signals of a policy shift: despite Powell's hawkish stance at the June FOMC meeting, several Federal Reserve governors quickly adopted a dovish position within a week, and even Powell himself softened his tone during congressional hearings. This rare and rapid shift is not to be overlooked—political pressure is significant; after President Trump publicly criticized Federal Reserve policies, the Fed's communication strategy underwent dramatic adjustments. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation has fallen to 2.38%, and the unemployment rate has remained stable at 4.2% for 12 consecutive months, further undermining the rationale for maintaining high interest rates.
Even more exciting is the deepening integration of traditional finance and the crypto world. Guotai Junan International has received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its license, becoming the first Chinese brokerage to offer virtual asset trading services. This news led to a nearly 200% surge in its stock price in a single day. This is not only a milestone event for institutional entry but also marks a substantial breakthrough in the compliance process of crypto assets within the mainstream financial system. Additionally, the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) requiring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to evaluate the possibility of including cryptocurrencies as collateral for housing loans opens the door to a multi-trillion-dollar mortgage market. Although there are concerns in the industry that this move may sow systemic financial risks, it is undeniable that the asset attributes of cryptocurrencies are receiving unprecedented official endorsement.
Capital flow data reveals a delicate balance in the current market. The average monthly trading volume of altcoins is only about $1.7 billion, significantly below the annual average level of $2.5 billion. This mild trend suggests that investors are shifting from speculative assets to mainstream coins for consolidation, forming a typical characteristic of mid-cycle accumulation in a bull market. While the cryptocurrency market is still driven by emotions, a complete collapse would require a black swan event on the scale of Terra or FTX. Against the backdrop of an increasingly完善 regulatory framework and continued influx of institutional capital, the crypto market is more likely to enter a long-cycle slow bull.
Of course, concerns remain. Some market warnings suggest that the U.S. fiscal deficit rate may remain at a high level of 7% of GDP, with debt concerns hanging like a sword of Damocles. The Trump administration lacks substantial plans for tax increases or spending cuts, with the only relief route being a significant decrease in borrowing costs—this creates a subtle game with Federal Reserve policy. Technically, Bitcoin was impacted by the Middle East situation earlier this week, testing the critical support level of the 21-week moving average at $98,532. This position is seen as a watershed for bulls and bears; if geopolitical risks escalate again or PCE data unexpectedly comes in high, short-term adjustment risks cannot be overlooked.
As traditional stock indices reach new heights, the crypto market is undergoing a historic transformation. From the macro winds of change in Fed policy to the institutional breakthroughs of licensed Chinese brokerages and the potential connections to the trillion-dollar mortgage market, the energy for Bitcoin to break previous highs is quietly accumulating across multiple dimensions. Although shadows of debt and geopolitical risks continue to flow like undercurrents, the integration train of the crypto world and traditional finance has already sounded its horn—this time, its destination may be the true mainstream financial landscape.
BTC data analysis:
CoinAnk data shows that, according to the latest on-chain data, Bitcoin long-term holders achieved a record net increase of 800,000 BTC in the past 30 days, a scale far exceeding the historical average. Similar monthly increases of this magnitude have occurred only six times before, including mid-2021 and late 2024, and were accompanied by subsequent significant upward price trends. Currently, the cost range for long-term holders is concentrated between $95,000 and $107,000, while the average cost for short-term holders is about $93,000. At the same time, the proportion of long-term holders has risen to 68% of the total circulating supply, with early miner groups showing a strong reluctance to sell, having only sold a very small amount of BTC this year, highlighting the tightening trend on the supply side of the market.
This increase in holdings reflects the unwavering confidence of long-term investors in BTC as a store of value asset. Historical patterns indicate that accumulation of this scale often signals a turning point in the price cycle, likely stemming from market supply-demand imbalances and reinforced investor psychological expectations. The cost range for holdings can serve as a key support level; when prices approach this level, reduced selling pressure may help push the upward trend. Regarding the impact on the crypto market, particularly BTC, the increase in holdings has reduced circulating supply, combined with a reluctance to sell, which may exacerbate scarcity and drive prices past historical highs. However, if the macro environment worsens or short-term holders face increased cost pressure, the market may experience volatility; overall, the structure dominated by long-term holders helps stabilize the market and supports the continuation of a bull market.
