Advisor discusses hot topics:
Let’s talk about last night’s surge; essentially, it just repaired the technical drop caused by the Middle East issue last week. The key is that the NASDAQ was not scared at all and directly created a historical new high.
Everyone can savor this; if Bitcoin is to move in tandem with the NASDAQ, then this position should not be 108K, but rather starting at 110.7K. The premise is that the U.S. stock market needs to cooperate and not create any trouble.
Let's talk about the Federal Reserve. Back in March, I mentioned that for the market to evolve from a rebound to a reversal, we need to look for two key actions: canceling SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio, simply put, this is used to prevent banks from being too aggressive, borrowing too much, and taking too many risks) and stopping the balance sheet reduction.
On the balance sheet reduction side, it still seems to be playing dead, but SLR has now started to loosen up. The Federal Reserve has finally begun to consider giving banks a break, preparing to lower the capital requirements for banks holding U.S. Treasury securities.
In plain language, they also know that the market liquidity has quickly dried up. To avoid collapsing the government bond market, they must give banks the green light to take over. This matter is already in the public consultation process, and we should hear something within 60 days. Gradually releasing good news is the rhythm.
Returning to the market, last night’s surge cleared out the short liquidity below 108K, directly pulling the bears down. The current situation is not about whether you are bullish or bearish; it is about the main force racing.
If bulls can first eat through the low liquidity range from 108K to 110K, then the giant liquidation zone at 110K will not be far away. If bears can first stack up the bull liquidity around 103K, then the market will first need to pull back to wash out some bulls.
You need to know that the longer the oscillation lasts, the more beneficial it is for the bulls. In this position, a false breakout followed by a false breakdown is all a trick. Bears entering the market now is like voluntarily putting themselves under the wheels. Bulls getting in means shaking off the burden in the back seat, charging towards 110K.
If you want to talk about stimulation, it depends on whether the Middle East can stir up some activity. Or whether tonight's macro data from the U.S. can shock the market; otherwise, the current situation has already become a trend dominated by bulls.
Last night, a friend also mentioned that this wave is like early January 2024. I said yes, the movements are indeed very similar. First, a false breakdown of 99K, then it rises all the way up, exploding shorts.
If you say it’s possible to bear market again like earlier this year? That’s possible, but now it’s all in a big range, there’s no obvious sign in the market. If you insist on guessing tops and bottoms, the high probability is that you will only be fooled by false breakouts and scared out by false breakdowns...
Advisor looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 108900
First resistance level: 108200
Support level reference:
Second support level: 107200
First support level: 106500
From the current technical structure, the moving average system has entered a bullish arrangement, and the short-term currency price is still running above the rising trend line, having a certain rebound basis.
However, the RSI has shown signs of short-term top divergence, indicating that prices may face certain adjustments. Therefore, during the day, one can pay attention to whether the price can hold the key support range after the pullback; this is the key to judging whether the trend will continue.
Currently, 108K is a critical short-term resistance. If it can break through, it is expected to trigger bullish sentiment, leading to a quick short-term surge. If the first resistance level is broken, then attention should be paid to the previous high position of 108.9K. If there is a short-term pullback in this range, it is a reasonable area to take partial profits.
If the price adjusts, the range of 107K~107.2K is a suitable pullback area. Combined with the divergence signal from the RSI indicator, this position is also a key support.
If the current short-term rising trend line is broken, the 106.5K range will become the next support and will exacerbate the short-term adjustment amplitude. If the currency price continues to maintain the short-term rising trend, the key is that 107.2K cannot be effectively broken.
At the same time, attention can be paid to the validity of the 20-day moving average and the short-term rising trend line on the hourly level. If it breaks down, it will also be a new low-buying opportunity. Focus on whether the decline slows down or stops before considering entering the market.
6.26 Advisor's wave band pre-embedding:
Long entry reference: 105700-106500 range for partial longs, target: 108200-108900
Short entry reference: not currently referenced
If you sincerely want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just watch a few market movements and jump to conclusions. This market is filled with performers; today they show a long position screenshot, tomorrow a short position summary, making it seem like they 'grab the top and bottom every time', but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than waiting for the market to move before making a show. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who is a thinker and who is a dream weaver!
