News background
1️⃣ PCE will be released this week. Dollar index - up, oil - up, gold - slightly down. The first two indicators are not great for crypto.
2️⃣Tariff story. No changes. Talks between China/USA and EU/USA (the pause ends on July 9) are relevant. It's still completely unclear how it will go.
3️⃣Conflicts. Iran/Israel is in full swing, but relatively mild for now. It could have been significantly worse. The situation is still unclear, crypto may still be affected.
4️⃣Rate 4.5%. We are waiting for PCE this week (which the Fed is closely monitoring) and Powell's speech before the Economic Committee.
Tech.
We are dropping sharply amid the escalation of the Israel/Iran conflict. It's still unclear what's happening there. Possible scenarios below:
1️⃣Option for a quick resolution of the conflict. Everyone showed how cool they are and started to negotiate. Bitcoin, and the market following it, cautiously crawled to 103,600 and potentially to 105,000. There we have ema64 on the daily chart (green average in the picture).
2️⃣Moderately bad scenario. Everyone continues to show how cool they are, shouting loudly, but there are no serious hostilities, the spill is not blocked and some behind-the-scenes discussions gradually begin. On loud statements, we drop to 98,000, possibly a bit lower, and start growing again.
3️⃣Bad-bad scenario. Well, it's clear: the Strait of Hormuz is blocked one way or another, everyone hates each other, loudly shouting and waving rockets and planes - we're heading to 94,800. And then everything suddenly stops.
Israel/Iran remains the most important topic. While one side demonstrates 'might', the other shows that it is not weak. I think the most likely scenario is moderately negative (no one is openly planning to help Iran, it lacks the strength for direct confrontation, and regional countries are suggesting starting negotiations) with a drop to 98,000 by Thursday.
