BTC Overview.

News Background

1️⃣ CPI was released yesterday and turned out to be good (a positive factor for lowering the rate... someday). PPI will be released today. The forecast for it implies growth, but we'll see.
2️⃣ Tariff Story. Negotiations with China can be said to be stalled, with the EU they haven't even started yet, and the situation is also expected to be not very good. This all contributes to keeping the rate unchanged. And it seems they will leave it as is.
3️⃣ Conflicts. The speech about the disruption of the deal with Iran is slowly gaining momentum. Partly, this is accelerating the rise in oil prices (which, by the way, could increase inflation in the US in the near future). Not very good for crypto, but for now, it's just expectations.
4️⃣ Expectations for the Fed rate in June are unchanged - 98% of market participants believe it will stay the same. The first reduction is expected by market participants only in September.

Technical Analysis.

We are lingering since yesterday evening. As expected, the decline started around 108,250. What may happen next - let's see below:

1️⃣ Option to turn upwards. Right from the current levels or around 106,930 - this is ema64 on h4 (the blue average on the chart) - we can turn upwards. A positive PPI released today could support this option. Then our targets will be 108,250 and 111,650. The latter - if everything goes really well, and we don’t hear any statements from Trump, like Xi ruining the whole party and not wanting to have fun.

2️⃣ Continuing the decline. Then the first target will be the level of 103,150 - ema64 on d1 (the green average on the chart). If Bitcoin stays at the current levels for long or goes up, this level will rise. More likely in case of negative news on the PPI or loud statements.

For now, I definitely don't understand where we will ultimately go, but if the PPI comes out good and invigorating, then the first option is more likely. In case of some negativity in the form of statements from Trump or someone else - the second option is more likely.