[De Uncle's Index Open Week] New strategies/indicators open for free for 2 weeks, everyone is welcome to play, see the pinned comment in the new video or the channel homepage for joining methods!
Weekly Market Forecast
Markets experienced heightened volatility this week as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran initially roiled global assets before diplomatic developments eased concerns. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain rates at 4.25-4.50% was overshadowed by more hawkish projections showing fewer anticipated rate cuts in 2025, contributing to mixed performance across major indices despite a late-week recovery.
The week proved challenging for US equities, with all major indices posting their first weekly declines in three weeks before staging a Monday recovery.
Weekly Market Forecast
This week the market experienced heightened volatility as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran initially roiled global assets before diplomatic developments eased concerns. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain rates at 4.25-4.50% was overshadowed by more hawkish projections showing fewer anticipated rate cuts in 2025, contributing to mixed performance across major indices despite a late-week recovery.
This week proved challenging for the US stock market, with all major indices posting their first weekly declines in three weeks before staging a Monday recovery.
Sector Rotation Trends
Energy: Initially surged on Middle East tensions with oil prices jumping 8% on Friday, but retreated as diplomatic progress emerged
Technology: Semiconductor stocks led gains amid ongoing AI optimism and potential easing of China trade restrictions
Financials: Mixed performance as investors digested Fed's hawkish tilt
Utilities: Underperformed, with PG&E down nearly 7% leading sector weakness
Key Earnings and Economic Data Impact
Federal Reserve Policy: As expected the Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds rate at 4.25-4.50% and Chairman Powell continued to convey a patient stance regarding potential future rate cuts. The Fed's updated projections showed:
Headline PCE inflation revised up to 3.0% from 2.7% for 2025
GDP growth lowered to 1.4% from 1.7%
Only one rate cut projected for 2026, down from two previously
Economic Data Releases:
Retail sales disappointed, falling 0.9% month-over-month versus -0.6% expected
ISM Manufacturing remained in contraction at 48.5%
Building permits dropped to 1,393K from 1,422K
Sector Rotation Trends
Energy Sector: Initially surged on Middle East tensions with oil prices jumping 8% on Friday, but retreated as diplomatic progress emerged
Technology Sector: Semiconductor stocks led gains amid ongoing AI optimism and potential easing of China trade restrictions
Financial Sector: Investors digest the Fed's hawkish stance, performance mixed
Utilities: Underperformed, with PG&E down nearly 7% leading sector weakness
Key Earnings and Economic Data Impact
Federal Reserve Policy: As expected, the Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds rate at 4.25-4.50%, and Chairman Powell continued to convey a patient stance regarding potential future rate cuts. The Fed's updated projections showed:
Overall PCE inflation for 2025 revised up from 2.7% to 3.0%
GDP growth lowered to 1.4% from 1.7%
Only one rate cut projected for 2026, down from two previously
Economic Data Release:
Retail sales disappointed, falling 0.9% month-over-month versus -0.6% expected
ISM Manufacturing Index remains in contraction territory at 48.5%
Building permits dropped to 1,393K from 1,422K
Chinese Stock Markets
Chinese equities showed mixed performance amid ongoing trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions:
Trade Negotiations Impact:
Global stock markets surged on Monday after the U.S. and China agreed to slash steep tariffs for at least 90 days, with the temporary truce reducing U.S. tariffs from 145% to 30%
Market sentiment improved on reports of rare earth export approvals and Boeing commercial jet deliveries resuming
Economic Indicators:
China's consumer price index fell 0.1% from a year earlier in May, marking the fourth consecutive month of deflation
Retail sales jumped 6.4% from the previous year, while industrial output growth slowed to 5.8% year on year
Export growth missed expectations with shipments to the U.S. declining sharply
Chinese Stock Markets
Chinese stock markets showed mixed performance amid ongoing trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions:
Trade Negotiations Impact:
Global stock markets surged on Monday after the U.S. and China agreed to slash steep tariffs for at least 90 days, with the temporary truce reducing U.S. tariffs from 145% to 30%
Reports of rare earth export approvals and Boeing commercial jet deliveries resuming improved market sentiment
Economic Indicators:
China's Consumer Price Index fell 0.1% year-over-year in May, marking the fourth consecutive month of deflation
Retail sales grew 6.4% year-over-year, while industrial output growth slowed to 5.8% year on year
Export growth missed expectations with shipments to the U.S. declining sharply
Forex Markets
Major Currency Pair Movements
USD Performance: The dollar showed mixed performance, initially weakening before finding support near key technical levels:
DXY (Dollar Index): The US dollar index left a significant imbalance at 106.00 during the March selloff. Currently hovering around 98-99 level
Notable technical development with potential for reversal if 99.00 resistance is cleared
EUR/USD: EURUSD needs a sustained break below 1.1530 and 1.1440. That could confirm a significant top for the euro.
Trading range: 1.1440-1.1530
Technical pattern suggests potential topping formation
Imbalance at 1.0600 could act as magnet on breakdown
GBP/USD: GBPUSD is also flashing warning signs of a potential top. In previous videos, I discussed the similarities with the 2024 top, including a multi-month rising wedge and RSI bearish divergence.
Key support at 1.3430 being tested
Rising wedge breakdown in progress
Target near 1.2900 on confirmed breakdown
USD/JPY:
Range-bound between 142.40 support and 145.40 resistance
Safe-haven yen flows during Israel-Iran tensions provided temporary support
Bank of Japan maintaining accommodative stance
Central Bank Influences
Federal Reserve: Hawkish tilt with upgraded inflation projections
ECB: Market positioning for potential rate cuts amid growth concerns
BoE: Wage growth data showing signs of moderation, supporting dovish expectations
BoJ: New PM Ishiba signaling continuation of accommodative policy
Geopolitical Events Impact
Israel-Iran conflict initially drove safe-haven flows to USD, JPY, and CHF
Diplomatic progress reversed these flows by week's end
Trade uncertainty between US and China continues to influence currency volatility
Forex Markets
Major Currency Pair Movements
USD Performance: The dollar showed mixed performance, initially weakening before finding support near key technical levels:
DXY (Dollar Index): The dollar index left a significant gap at 106.00 during the March selloff. Currently hovering around 98-99 level
Notable technical development with potential for reversal if 99.00 resistance is cleared
EUR/USD: EURUSD needs a sustained break below 1.1530 and 1.1440. That could confirm a significant top for the euro.
Trading Range: 1.1440-1.1530
Technical pattern suggests potential topping formation
The gap below 1.0600 could act as a magnet on breakdown
GBP/USD: GBP against USD also shows potential topping warning signals. In previous videos, I discussed similarities with the 2024 top, including a multi-month rising wedge and RSI bearish divergence.
Key support at 1.3430 being tested
Rising wedge breakdown in progress
Target near 1.2900 on confirmed breakdown
USD/JPY:
Range-bound between 142.40 support and 145.40 resistance
Safe-haven yen flows during Israel-Iran tensions provided temporary support
Bank of Japan maintains accommodative stance
Central Bank Influences
Federal Reserve: Hawkish tilt, upgraded inflation projections
European Central Bank: Markets prepare for potential rate cuts amid growth concerns
Bank of England: Wage growth data showing signs of moderation, supporting dovish expectations
Bank of Japan: New PM Ishiba states will continue accommodative policy
Geopolitical Events Impact
Israel-Iran conflict initially drove safe-haven flows to USD, JPY, and CHF
Weekend diplomatic progress reversed these flows
Trade uncertainty between US and China continues to influence currency volatility
Cryptocurrency Markets
Bitcoin Movement
Weekly range: $102,000 - $109,800
Maintained support above psychological $100,000 level
Exchange-traded funds tracking the price of bitcoin saw their biggest day of outflows since February on Friday, ending six weeks in a row of inflows with $616.22 million in outflows
Cryptocurrency Markets
Bitcoin Movement
Weekly range: $102,000 - $109,800
Maintained support above the psychological $100,000 level
Exchange-traded funds tracking the price of bitcoin saw their biggest day of outflows since February on Friday, ending six weeks in a row of inflows with $616.22 million in outflows
From a pure technical perspective, Bitcoin seems to leave its zone of compression to the downside with a possible target zone at the bull market support bands... however, given the volatile nature of the markets when it comes to news, especially with the USA seemingly entering the Israel/Iran conflict, it is not possible to currently only rely on technical analysis.
From a pure technical perspective, Bitcoin seems to be breaking down from its compression zone, with a possible target area at the bull market support bands... however, given the volatility of the market in the face of news, especially with the USA seemingly getting involved in the Israel/Iran conflict, it is currently impossible to rely solely on technical analysis.
Forward-Looking: Key Events for June 23-29, 2025
Economic Calendar Highlights
Monday, June 23:
Flash Manufacturing PMI (US, UK, EUR)
Flash Services PMI (US, UK, EUR)
German Ifo Business Climate
Existing Home Sales (US)
Tuesday, June 24:
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Consumer Confidence (CB)
Richmond Manufacturing Index
Wednesday, June 25:
New Home Sales
Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, June 26:
German Preliminary CPI
Weekly Jobless Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Pending Home Sales
Forward-Looking: Key Events for June 23-29, 2025
Economic Calendar Highlights
Monday, June 23:
Manufacturing PMI Preliminary (US, UK, Eurozone)
Services PMI Preliminary (US, UK, Eurozone)
German Ifo Business Climate Index
Existing Home Sales (US)
Tuesday, June 24:
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Consumer Confidence Index (CB)
Richmond Manufacturing Index
Wednesday, June 25:
New Home Sales
Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, June 26:
German Preliminary CPI
Weekly Jobless Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Existing Home Sales
Market Focus Areas
Trade Negotiations: US-China trade talks continuation with 90-day tariff ceasefire expiring July 8
Inflation Data: German CPI and US housing data for Fed policy implications
Geopolitical Developments: Monitoring Israel-Iran situation and potential oil market impacts
Earnings Season: Early Q2 earnings reports beginning to trickle in
Technical Levels: S&P 500 resistance at 6,000, support at 5,835; DXY at critical 99.00 level
Market Focus Areas
Trade Negotiations: US-China trade talks continuation with 90-day tariff ceasefire expiring July 8
Inflation Data: German CPI and US housing data for Fed policy implications
Geopolitical Developments: Monitoring Israel-Iran situation and potential oil market impacts
Earnings Season: Early Q2 earnings reports beginning to trickle in
Technical Levels: S&P 500 resistance at 6,000, support at 5,835; DXY at critical 99.00 level
Trading Bot Development Update
I am pleased to present this development update on the Trading Bot project. The system has successfully completed the critical development phases and comprehensive testing protocols with the trading engine now working bug free. For those of you who are more interested in some technical details here is a brief development overview:
Full implementation of all specified features from the 11-page requirements document
Comprehensive testing with 100% of critical path coverage
Successful integration with the testnet of a major crypto exchange (testnet validated)
Risk management protocols fully implemented and verified
Core Trading Logic
Position Management: Single position system with no reversals, implementing strict exit-only-via-stop-loss protocol
Renko Calculation Engine: Real-time brick formation with $100 fixed size, tested across multiple market conditions
Risk Controls: 3% per-trade risk with dynamic position sizing, validated through extensive backtesting
System Architecture
Modular Design: Event-driven architecture ensuring component independence and system resilience
Performance Metrics: Sub-500ms execution latency from signal receipt to order placement
Data Integrity: PostgreSQL-based persistence layer with full transaction logging
Safety Mechanisms
Trailing Stop Management: 1.5% Renko-based stops with favorable-direction-only updates
Daily Risk Limits: 10% maximum daily drawdown protection
Position Timeouts: Automatic closure after 7-day maximum hold period
Emergency Protocols: 5% hard stop loss and disconnection handling procedures
Currently I am working on a comprehensive real-time dashboard featuring:
Live position tracking with P&L calculations
300-brick Renko chart visualization
Performance metrics (Sharpe ratio, profit factor, maximum drawdown)
Trade history and risk analytics
Automatic stop-loss detection and repair functionality
By The Numbers
Lines of Code: 15,000+
Tests Written: 50+
Bugs Squashed: Lost count after 100
Coffee Consumed: ☕️ × ∞
Excitement Level: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Have a good start into your week of trading!
Trading Bot Development Update
I am pleased to present this development update on the Trading Bot project. The system has successfully completed the critical development phases and comprehensive testing protocols with the trading engine now working bug free. For those of you who are more interested in some technical details here is a brief development overview:
Full implementation of all specified features from the 11-page requirements document
Comprehensive testing, 100% critical path coverage
Successful integration with the testnet of a major crypto exchange (testnet validated)
Risk management protocols fully implemented and verified
Core Trading Logic
Position Management: Single position system with no reversals, implementing strict exit-only-via-stop-loss protocol
Renko Calculation Engine: Real-time brick formation with fixed size of $100, tested across multiple market conditions
Risk Control: 3% risk per trade, dynamic position adjustment, validated through extensive backtesting
System Architecture
Modular Design: Event-driven architecture ensuring component independence and system resilience
Performance Metrics: Execution latency from signal receipt to order placement below 500 milliseconds
Data Integrity: PostgreSQL-based persistence layer with full transaction logging
Safety Mechanisms
Trailing stop management: 1.5% stop loss based on Renko, updated only in favorable direction
Daily Risk Limits: 10% maximum daily drawdown protection
Position Timeouts: Automatic closure after 7-day maximum hold period
Emergency Protocols: 5% hard stop loss and disconnection handling procedures
Currently I am developing a comprehensive real-time dashboard featuring:
Live position tracking with P&L calculations
300-brick Renko chart visualization
Performance Metrics (Sharpe ratio, profit factor, maximum drawdown)
Trade history and risk analytics
Automatic stop-loss detection and repair functionality
Data Statistics
Lines of Code: 15,000+
Tests Written: 50+
Bugs Squashed: Lost count after 100
Coffee Consumed: ☕️ × ∞
Excitement Level: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Have a good start into your week of trading!