Weekly Market Forecast

Job Market Shows Strength Despite Some Concerns The job market performed better than expected in May, which helped calm fears about the economy slowing down too quickly. Companies are still being cautious about both hiring new workers and laying people off, but the good news is that wages are growing faster than prices are rising, meaning workers' purchasing power is improving.

Stock Markets Are Doing Very Well Stock markets around the world have bounced back strongly and are now at record highs - up 20% since their low point in April. This recovery is being driven by solid company performance, reduced trade tensions between countries, and strong corporate profits.

周市场预测

就业市场表现强劲，尽管仍有一些担忧 五月份就业市场表现好于预期，这有助于缓解人们对经济放缓过快的担忧。企业在招聘新员工和裁员方面仍然保持谨慎，但好消息是工资增长速度超过了物价上涨幅度，这意味着工人的购买力正在提高。

股市表现非常出色 全球股市强势反弹，目前已达到创纪录高位——自四月份低点以来上涨了20%。这轮复苏主要得益于公司业绩稳健、国家间贸易紧张局势缓解以及企业利润强劲。

Market Gains Have Multiple Drivers While some of the recent stock market gains come from investors being willing to pay higher prices for shares (which could signal overconfidence), much of the growth is also backed by companies actually earning more money, particularly large technology companies.

Some Challenges Still Ahead There are still potential bumps in the road, including ongoing trade disputes and tariff decisions, upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate choices, and political debates about government spending limits. These issues could cause market swings, but the underlying strength of the economy provides a solid foundation to weather potential turbulence.

市场上涨有多重驱动因素 虽然近期股市上涨部分原因是投资者愿意为股票支付更高价格（这可能表明过度自信），但大部分增长也得到了公司实际盈利增加的支撑，尤其是大型科技公司。

仍面临一些挑战 前路仍有潜在障碍，包括持续的贸易争端和关税决定、即将到来的美联储利率选择，以及围绕政府支出限额的政治辩论。这些问题可能导致市场波动，但经济的基本面强劲为抵御潜在动荡提供了坚实基础。

Despite the whole sentiment looking more promising again Cryptocurrencies are in troubled water with some technical analysts even stating that the current market structure during this bull run looks almost exactly like the double top we encountered in 2021….

尽管整体情绪再次显得更加乐观，但加密货币正处于困境之中，一些技术分析师甚至表示，当前牛市期间的市场结构看起来几乎与我们在2021年遇到的双重顶部完全相同……

I agree to a certain extent that the structure looks the same, however when it comes to looking at structures like this we need to be very careful due to the Pattern Recognition Trap: Human brains are naturally wired to find patterns, even where none actually exist. When looking at charts, we can easily convince ourselves we see meaningful similarities between different time periods, especially when we're actively looking for them. The highlighted boxes in this Bitcoin chart are a perfect example - while there may be some visual similarity, the underlying market conditions, catalysts, and context were very different between 2021 and 2025. 

I still believe that, if we do not see any black swan events like escalating wars or really bad economic outturns that this bull market in both, stocks and crypto, is going to continue until Q4 2025 with, of course, a lot of violent up and downs inbetween.

我在一定程度上同意这种结构看起来相似，但是在观察这样的结构时，我们需要非常谨慎，因为存在**模式识别陷阱：**人类大脑天生倾向于寻找模式，即使在实际上并不存在模式的地方也是如此。在查看图表时，我们很容易说服自己看到不同时期之间有意义的相似性，特别是当我们主动寻找这些相似性时。这张比特币图表中突出显示的方框就是一个完美的例子——虽然可能存在一些视觉上的相似性，但2021年和2025年之间的潜在市场条件、催化因素和背景环境是非常不同的。

我仍然相信，如果我们没有看到任何黑天鹅事件，比如战争升级或真正糟糕的经济结果，那么股市和加密货币的这轮牛市将持续到2025年第四季度，当然，期间会有很多剧烈的上下波动。

Live Trading sessions

As you already noticed @assistanthuan is back in action with some nice trading results, which she will continue to share with you on the chat. Remember everything she does you can do as well as she is not using any secret indicators but the same one you have as a live stream here: MEI & G-Force, especially the confluence signals.

I will eventually also re-join the live trading action, however at the moment I am very focussed on 2 things: 

Getting our very own trading bot ready that does not depend on any third-party software. I shared a little picture of the first version of the front end already the other day in this chat.

Continuing the live testing of my Gold trend-following trading strategy, for which I also shared a screenshot the other day.

As soon as those 2 are up and working they will be released to this community offering you something no other trading community on this planet is currently offering: Institutional grade performance.

实时交易课程

正如你们已经注意到的，@assistanthuan 重新回到了行动中，并取得了不错的交易成果，她将继续在聊天中与你们分享。记住，她所做的一切你们也都能做到，因为她没有使用任何秘密指标，而是使用与你们在这里直播中相同的指标：MEI和G-Force，特别是汇合信号。

我最终也会重新加入实时交易行动，但目前我非常专注于两件事：

准备我们自己的交易机器人，它不依赖于任何第三方软件。前几天我已经在这个聊天中分享了前端第一版本的小截图。

继续对我的黄金趋势跟踪交易策略进行实时测试，前几天我也分享了相关截图。

一旦这两个项目准备就绪并运行，它们将发布给这个社区，为你们提供目前地球上没有其他交易社区能够提供的东西：机构级别的表现。

Important economic releases next week

下周重要经济数据发布

Most important economic releases next week are the inflation reports from China and the USA… While China is tapping into deflation territory with negative inflation already the numbers for the USA are expected to come in with a higher 2.5 %. I personally think that expected number is a bit too high and that the markets might actually be pleasantly surprised by a number below 2.5 % - however as always it is not wise to gamble on the outcome of economic releases.

Have a good start into the new week!

下周最重要的经济数据发布是来自中国和美国的通胀报告……虽然中国正在进入通缩区域，通胀率已经为负值，但美国的数据预计将达到较高的2.5%。我个人认为这个预期数字有点过高，市场实际上可能会因为低于2.5%的数字而感到惊喜——但是一如既往，对经济数据发布结果进行赌博是不明智的。

祝大家新的一周开始愉快！