This week on the weekly market forecast:
➡️What is driving the markets at the moment
➡️Chart analysis and forecast for Bitcoin
‼️New free-for-all 2 week VIP channel access
‼️Sneak preview and free access to the new trend following system
➡️Important economic data releases for next week
本周市场周报内容：
➡️当前市场驱动因素分析
➡️比特币图表分析与预测
‼️新的2周VIP频道免费体验
‼️新趋势跟踪系统预览及免费体验
➡️下周重要经济数据发布时间
The US economy is growing faster than usual. While growth was slow in early 2025, it's now picking up speed and should exceed 3% this quarter. People are still spending money steadily, even though consumer confidence surveys show they're worried. This is likely because prices aren't rising too fast and jobs are still available.
Jobs are holding steady. Yes, companies aren't hiring as much as before, but they're also not firing people. The unemployment rate is around 4.2% - that's actually better than the historical average of 5.5%. Companies want to keep their good employees. Plus, wages are going up about 3.9% while prices are only rising about 2.4%, so workers are actually getting ahead.
Prices aren't rising too fast. Recent data shows inflation is around 2.4% for everyday goods and 2.6% for wholesale prices. That's way down from 2022 when prices were soaring at 9% or even 18%. The Federal Reserve wants inflation at 2%, and we're getting close.
What about tariffs? They haven't pushed prices up yet. Companies stocked up on inventory ahead of time, which is helping keep prices stable for now. But depending on future trade deals, we might see prices rise later this year.
Oil prices are something to watch. Recent Middle East tensions pushed oil prices up 5-7% last week. But historically, these spikes don't last long. Also, the U.S. produces its own oil now and doesn't rely on energy as much as it used to, so we're less vulnerable to oil price shocks.
美国经济增长速度超过往常。 尽管2025年初增长缓慢，但现在正在加速，本季度增长率应该会超过3%。尽管消费者信心调查显示人们感到担忧，但消费支出依然稳定。这可能是因为物价上涨不算太快，而且就业机会仍然充足。
就业市场保持稳定。 是的，企业招聘不如以前那么多，但也没有裁员。失业率约为4.2%——这实际上优于5.5%的历史平均水平。企业希望留住优秀员工。此外，工资上涨约3.9%，而物价仅上涨约2.4%，所以工人的实际收入在增加。
物价上涨速度不快。 最新数据显示，日常商品的通胀率约为2.4%，批发价格为2.6%。这比2022年价格飙升9%甚至18%的时候下降了很多。美联储希望通胀率达到2%，我们正在接近这个目标。
关税怎么样？ 它们还没有推高物价。企业提前囤积了库存，这有助于目前保持价格稳定。但根据未来的贸易协议，我们可能会在今年晚些时候看到价格上涨。
油价值得关注。 最近的中东紧张局势使油价上周上涨了5-7%。但从历史上看，这些价格飙升不会持续很久。此外，美国现在自己生产石油，不像过去那样依赖能源，所以我们对油价冲击的脆弱性降低了。
For Bitcoin the 8 weeks simple moving average (blue line) has been short term acting as a good zone of support… however by the looks of it price is entering a phase of price compression, which usually sooner or later results in a volatile breakout. The question is, of course, if the breakout will be to the upside or downside. Should it happen now my bet would be on the upside but the longer the compression phase lasts the more likely a breakout to the downside is… As I said in the past weeks over and over again we are running out of time for this cycle slowly and the phase where Bitcoin goes in the “crazy bull market mode” needs to start, imho, until mid August 2025. The next 8 to 10 weeks will probably be very exciting!
对于比特币而言，8周简单移动平均线（蓝线）在短期内一直作为良好的支撑区域发挥作用……然而从目前的情况来看，价格正在进入价格压缩阶段，这通常迟早会导致剧烈的突破。当然，问题在于突破是向上还是向下。如果现在发生突破，我会押注向上突破，但压缩阶段持续得越久，向下突破的可能性就越大……正如我在过去几周反复说过的，我们这个周期的时间正在慢慢耗尽，在我看来，比特币进入"疯狂牛市模式"的阶段需要在2025年8月中旬之前开始。接下来的8到10周可能会非常令人兴奋！
New 2 weeks VIP signal Group access and Introduction of the new trend following system
I am happy to announce that by the end of the week we will, by popular demand, give free access again for 2 weeks to the VIP signal group. This means you will have access to the VIP group for free and be able to see for yourself if the MEI & G-Force Signals are something that can help you with your trading.
Additionally we will stream the new trend following system for Bitcoin live in this group so you can see live for yourself what to expect from it. This is the system that will eventually also be rolled out as a trading bot (that will still take some time as I am testing it with my own money first). I have been working very, very hard on that system the past months and I am now very satisfied with the results of my backtests… backtests in this case NOT meaning that it was optimized on data (that would be curve fitting and result in losses when trading in the real markets), but filtering signals, for example, on things average expected win vs money risked, time of day when the system is most effective and so on.
Here a little preview on how it will look as a chart - I am aiming at a very simple and clean look with very easy take profit and stop loss rules
新的2周VIP信号群免费体验及新趋势跟踪系统介绍
我很高兴地宣布，应大众要求，我们将在本周末再次提供为期2周的VIP信号群免费体验。这意味着您将免费获得VIP群的访问权限，能够亲自体验MEI和G-Force信号是否对您的交易有所帮助。
此外，我们将在该群组中实时直播比特币的新趋势跟踪系统，让您能够实时亲眼看到它的预期表现。这个系统最终也将作为交易机器人推出（这还需要一些时间，因为我正在先用自己的资金进行测试）。过去几个月我一直在非常、非常努力地开发这个系统，现在我对回测结果非常满意……这里的回测并不是指在数据上进行优化（那将是曲线拟合，在真实市场交易时会导致亏损），而是根据诸如平均预期盈利与风险资金比率、系统在一天中最有效的时间等因素来筛选信号。
这里是它在图表上的外观预览 - 我的目标是非常简洁清晰的外观，配合非常简单的止盈和止损规则。
I will record a video next week where I will explain the details of the system, trading rules, risk management and what to expect in terms of return on investment - we will release that video then on Bilibili. A quick preview on that performance metrics of the system:
我将在下周录制一个视频，详细解释该系统的细节、交易规则、风险管理以及投资回报率的预期表现——我们届时将在哔哩哔哩上发布该视频。以下是该系统性能指标的快速预览：
Notice please that the system is geared toward the best risk-adjusted return, meaning that it is aiming at having the best return on investment per USDT risked. It is not aiming to have the highest success rate possible, because that does not necessarily mean you will have the highest risk adjusted return. The 2 metrics we want to aim to have as high as possible are Sharpe Ratio and Profit factor, which are at institutional level here and unlike anything else that is available to retail traders.
However, as I said more details on it by the end of next week in the new video 🙂
请注意，该系统旨在实现最佳的风险调整回报，这意味着它的目标是每个风险USDT获得最佳的投资回报。它并不追求尽可能高的成功率，因为这并不一定意味着您将获得最高的风险调整回报。我们希望尽可能提高的两个指标是夏普比率和盈利因子，这些指标达到了机构级别的水平，是散户交易者无法获得的其他任何工具所能比拟的。
不过，正如我所说，更多细节将在下周末的新视频中介绍 🙂
Important economic releases next week
下周重要经济数据发布
Plenty of data coming in next week with China’s Industrial production and Retail Sales starting already Monday morning…. The international markets will, of course, closely monitor the US interest rate decision on Wednesday. Although no change of interest rates is expected market participants will very closely monitor what the chairman of the FED, Jerome Powell, has to say in the press conference starting 30 minutes after the interest rate decision.
Have a good start into the week!
下周将有大量数据发布，中国的工业生产和零售销售数据将在周一早上率先公布……国际市场当然会密切关注周三的美国利率决议。尽管预计利率不会发生变化，但市场参与者将非常密切地关注美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在利率决议后30分钟开始的新闻发布会上的讲话。
祝您新的一周有个好的开始！
