Daily report on June 21, 2025
Yesterday, the U.S. stock market opened high but fell sharply, and Bitcoin also experienced violent fluctuations, dropping from $106,500 to $102,000, with significant volatility.
In terms of trading volume, apart from Bitcoin's trading volume being decent, the overall trading volume in the crypto market is declining, especially the trading volume of Ethereum and altcoins has clearly shrunk.
Looking at oil price trends, U.S. crude oil has exceeded $74, and the Middle East war is making U.S. investors a bit anxious, fearing that the U.S. will be dragged into the conflict, rising energy prices will push up U.S. inflation, leading the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts.
1. Middle East Conflict
In the Middle East, Trump is playing Taco trading, saying he will go golfing over the weekend and delaying military action against Iran.
Data shows that the conflict between Israel and Iran is costing the United States several hundred million dollars every day, and the disadvantages of participating in the war clearly outweigh the benefits.
Trump is still very clear-headed at the moment and has not been led by lobbying groups.
However, Israel has made strong statements, saying that if the U.S. does not decide by Friday, they will take action themselves.
White House Press Secretary Levitt stated early in the morning that Trump will decide whether to take military action against Iran within two weeks.
2. On-chain Data
From the data perspective, although Bitcoin prices are highly volatile, the turnover rate is declining, with most exiting being losing investors.
This indicates that the war has triggered panic, but it has not reached an uncontrollable level; most investors are not particularly concerned about geopolitical conflicts.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have also seen net inflows for 9 consecutive days, and Ethereum ETFs have seen inflows for 4 consecutive days.
However, the purchase volume of Bitcoin ETFs is significantly lower than in 2024, with traditional investors' enthusiasm clearly cooling, possibly due to external uncertainties causing everyone to feel uneasy.
From the support level perspective, $93,000-$98,000 remains the strongest support level, but the Bitcoin stock in the $100,500-$105,000 range has exceeded 2 million coins, especially with 1.2 million Bitcoins accumulated in the $104,000-$105,000 range.
If the chips continue to accumulate, the market may be forced to choose a direction. If panic intensifies, the volatility is likely to increase.
From the funding data perspective, there was a decrease of 400 million in on-site funds yesterday, leaving a total of 261 billion.
The total amount of USDT is 155.872 billion, with an increase of 15.3 million, indicating that Asian funds are still flowing in, but trading volume is declining.
The market value of USDC has decreased by 13.4 million, with U.S. funds suspected of flowing out, and trading volume is also sharply declining.
From the trend perspective, the recent inflow of USDT and USDC into exchanges has not significantly increased, indicating that the willingness of new funds to enter is not strong.
Overall, the market is currently a bit dull, everyone is in a wait-and-see state, and the fear and greed index has dropped to around 43, with everyone waiting for new signals.
Currently in a low liquidity phase, short-term volatility may increase.
On the issue of the Middle East conflict, Trump is likely to continue dragging his feet and will not rush to make a statement.
As for interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve and Trump are testing each other, waiting for the other to make a mistake before stepping in as a savior.
The market will be pulled back and forth between these factors until a certain trigger suddenly explodes, causing a chain reaction and igniting the next big market trend.