June 16, 2025 Report
The overall market over the weekend was relatively calm, with Bitcoin trading narrowly around $105,000.
US stock futures rose in early trading, recovering losses from last week's Israel-Iran war; it is worth observing the market movements after US stock market opens tonight.
Regarding the Middle East situation, early this morning, the US released continuous news stating that Trump indicated the US would intervene in the Israel-Iran conflict, but emphasized that the premise for peace negotiations is for both sides to cease fire first; he also mentioned that he vetoed the proposal to assassinate Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei.
Iran has also stated that they are willing to cease fire as long as Israel stops its fire.
Currently, it seems that US intervention may be an attempt to provide Iran with a way out; if Israel ceases fire, the geopolitical crisis may ease.
Next, it is highly likely that negotiations between the US and Iran will resume, but with Iran having no nuclear research and facilities, whether this round of negotiations will be smoother remains to be seen.
Regarding China-US trade, Trump stated that both sides reached a preliminary consensus, maintaining existing tariffs while appropriately opening up rare earth minerals, but there has been no significant response from China, and further developments need observation.
From the data perspective, the geopolitical conflict has not caused significant impact on Bitcoin for now, with a short-term support level at $105,000 and strong support between $93,000 and $98,000.
Michael Saylor from MicroStrategy released a Bitcoin tracker again yesterday, indicating they are ready to start bottom-fishing, with short-term buying pressure still strong.
Japanese listed company Metaplanet is also set to issue $210 million in bonds to purchase more Bitcoin; it is the most successful among companies emulating MicroStrategy.
From the funding perspective, on-site funds have decreased by 400 million, totaling 260.6 billion.
USDT market cap is 155.446 billion, a decrease of 0.23 billion from yesterday, but trading volume has increased, with the Asian market showing unexpected activity over the weekend.
USDC market cap decreased by 0.49 billion, with slight inflow of funds in the US region, but trading activity has declined.
This indicates that Asian traders are more willing to gamble under the current geopolitical situation, while US traders appear more composed.
In the past 7 days, there was a net inflow of 1.16 billion in stablecoins, with USDT increasing by 686 million and USDC increasing by 560 million.
Overall, the market sentiment over the weekend has been relatively stable, with next week's focus still on the Middle East situation and China-US trade.
Additionally, US retail data will be released on Tuesday, with the market predicting a negative outlook, indicating deflation.
This means that American consumer spending is decreasing; for a consumer-driven US economy, a decline in retail sales signifies weakened consumer confidence, posing risks of economic slowdown.
On Thursday, there will also be a Federal Reserve meeting, with the market expecting no change in interest rates, focusing on the latest rate cut dot plot and Powell's speech.