June 20, 2025 Daily Report
Yesterday, the U.S. stock market was closed for the Dragon Boat Festival, and Bitcoin fluctuated around $104,500 with significantly reduced trading volume. Without the push from the U.S. stock market, the overall crypto market only had slight fluctuations.
Today's market focus remains on geopolitical conflicts.
Yesterday, Powell mentioned that the impact of the Middle East war on energy prices is short-term, meaning it won't significantly drive up inflation.
However, today's oil price trend has worried investors, with WTI oil nearing $76 and Brent crude approaching $79, indicating that the conflict is unlikely to end in the short term.
Nevertheless, the market currently believes that the risks of the Middle East conflict are not enough to trigger strong risk aversion.
The main driver of rising oil prices is the Iranian issue, which could lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
1. Middle East Conflict
The International Atomic Energy Agency stated that radiation levels at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility have risen, suspected to be due to bombing causing damage to the facility.
Iran is currently experiencing widespread internet outages, possibly due to Israel's precise strikes on communication facilities, or it could be Iran's decision to cut off external communication.
Iran attacked Israel with mudstone heavy missiles with a range of 2000 kilometers and a speed of 14 Mach, and even if intercepted, debris can still cause damage.
Israel requested the U.S. to use B2 bombers carrying GBU-57 bunker buster bombs to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities, but the U.S. has not yet agreed.
There are rumors that an Iranian government special plane flew to Oman, possibly for peace talks, but the Iranian official has not confirmed this.
Currently, Israel's missile attack frequency on Iran has decreased, possibly due to insufficient ammunition reserves. U.S. military aircraft are gathering in the Middle East, on high alert.
Trump stated that he would decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran, and this statement seems to be giving Iran an ultimatum.
However, he had previously said similar things to Russia, which ultimately led to nothing, and this time may still be mainly about pressure.
2. Russia-Ukraine War
In the Russia-Ukraine war, both sides are still at a stalemate on the front line.
However, after Putin bombed Kyiv early yesterday, he publicly expressed a willingness to negotiate with Ukraine, but it feels like retaliation first and then talks, and Ukraine has not responded for the time being.
Currently, the situations in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine are both tense, with Israel wanting to pull the U.S. into the conflict, but the U.S. is still hesitant.
In contrast, the risk in the Middle East is greater, but both situations are interconnected, and market sentiment is completely influenced by geopolitical conflicts.
3. On-chain Data
From the data, the closure of the U.S. stock market yesterday led to very low liquidity and turnover in the crypto market, resembling weekend trading.
Currently, mainly investors who chased highs in the last two days are trading, while early investors are not in panic due to geopolitical conflicts, and market sentiment remains relatively stable.
From a support level perspective, the $93,000-$98,000 support remains strong, but the accumulation in the $100,500-$105,000 range is increasing.
Especially in the $104,000-$105,000 range, over 1.2 million Bitcoins have been accumulated.
If the accumulation continues in this range, once a single price exceeds 1 million coins, investors' directional choices will become more urgent, and short-term fluctuations may increase.
From the funding data, the market cap of USDT has increased by $155 million, and both the inflow of funds and trading volume in the Asian market are increasing. The market cap of USDC has decreased by $3.8 million, and trading volume has also declined.
Overall, the market is currently in a wait-and-see state, neither pessimistic nor optimistic, waiting for a new signal, as a direction is about to emerge.
Geopolitical conflicts are the focus of market attention, and the risk of range fluctuations under low liquidity is not small; once Iran and Trump have new movements, short-term fluctuations will increase.
Additionally, the issue of tariffs in July is approaching, and currently, the likelihood of continuing to postpone reciprocal tariffs is very high.
Patience in trading is key, just like Charlie Munger said, smart people spend their lives waiting for good opportunities; there are not many opportunities, but seizing one or two is enough.
Without good targets and suitable prices, just hold cash and patiently wait for the moment that can hit a home run.
