1. Price trend: Multiple supports broken, initiating a downward channel
Bitcoin price began a new round of correction on June 13 after failing to break through the $110,500 resistance level, subsequently breaking below key supports of $107,500 and $106,500, with a minimum drop to $102,640, a decline of over 6% from the daily high. The current price oscillates between $103,000 and $105,500, with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($104,800) becoming a short-term bull-bear dividing line.
Technical patterns show that BTC/USD hourly chart has formed a bearish trendline (resistance level $106,600), with the 100-hour moving average ($105,200) providing resistance; market selling pressure is concentrated in the $104,200-$105,500 range. On-chain data shows a 37% decrease in net outflow of BTC from exchanges, accompanied by a single-day reduction of 12,000 BTC from whale addresses (holding over 10,000 BTC), indicating that profit-taking sentiment is dominating the market.
2. Bull-bear game: Key price levels determine short-term direction
Upward resistance zone:
First resistance level: $105,500 (previous support turned resistance, combined with 50% Fibonacci retracement level);
Strong resistance level: $106,600 (trendline pressure + 100-hour moving average resistance), if broken, may test the $108,000 integer level.
Downward support zone:
Immediate support: Around $103,000 (daily low forming a psychological defense line);
Key support: Around $102,350 (200-hour moving average position), if lost, may drop to $101,500; breaking below $100,000 will trigger systemic selling.
3. Technical indicators: Bearish signals continue to strengthen
MACD: Hourly green bars continue to expand, fast line breaking below slow line forming a death cross, bearish momentum accelerating;
RSI: Rapidly fell from the overbought zone to the 45 level, indicating short-term selling dominance;
Funding rate: The perpetual contract negative funding rate expands to -0.015%, increasing leveraged long stop losses and accelerating declines.
4. Market driving factors and risk warnings
Short-term bearish: Increased regulatory scrutiny from the Monetary Authority of Singapore raises liquidity concerns for exchanges, coupled with political events surrounding Trump's birthday, causing a rise in market risk aversion;
Historical patterns: Bitcoin has formed strong support at the $100,000 integer level four times (March, July, November 2024, and February 2025); if this level is lost, it may trigger algorithmic trading stop-loss selling;
Derivatives risk: CME Bitcoin futures open interest has surpassed $1.2 billion, with about 8,000 BTC in options strike prices below $105,000, which may trigger increased volatility.
Operational suggestion: Short-term focus on the breakthrough of the $105,500 resistance level; if broken, consider entering long positions with light exposure, targeting $108,000; if it breaks below $103,000, decisively stop loss and wait for stabilization signals around $100,000. In the medium term, track the Fed's interest rate cut expectations in September and changes in SEC regulatory policies to avoid emotional trading. (Personal opinion, for reference only, not advice)
