According to Glassnode's latest weekly report, as BTC hovers near its ATH high, the Bitcoin blockchain has turned into a ghost town, with the daily average number of TX decreasing by 44% from a peak of 734K to 410K, and miners' daily average income dropping to $558K.

However, this is not necessarily a bearish sign, but rather two sides of the same coin regarding the institutional trend of BTC.

The average single TX amount on the Bitcoin blockchain has significantly increased to $36.2K, indicating that institutions and high-net-worth participants dominate on-chain activities. The daily average TX value is $7.5B, maintaining historical highs.

Nevertheless, the institutional trend of Bitcoin should not be equated with its upward potential, which is a major misconception in mainstream analysis. In fact, the marginal changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, the Fed's base interest rate, seasonal abundance/exhaustion in financial markets, and the impact of August's market structure bill on Bitcoin prices all have far greater influence than the institutional trend. The reason is that it has already been fully priced in.

Currently, the crypto market is in a state of significant divergence regarding Bitcoin's future trajectory, with both bulls and bears continually ramping up their positions, and the total open interest in derivatives like contracts and options has reached $96.2B.

Moreover, on June 27, there is a maximum pain point of $14.04B at the $100K Bitcoin options settlement, and players should be cautious of the settlement day curse effect.