A major test for the crypto market is here! This week is a super central bank week, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England collectively taking major actions, directly pushing cryptocurrency prices to the 'volcano of macro-gaming'!

1. The Federal Reserve holds steady, but rate cut expectations are at an all-time high.

• Dot plot sets the tone for future easing:

Despite the market betting 99% that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week, the focus is on the dot plot. The latest forecasts indicate that there could be two rate cuts in 2025 (a total of 50 basis points), the first possibly in September. If the dot plot signals a dovish stance, the dollar may weaken, and cryptocurrencies, as 'inflation-hedging assets', will directly benefit. For example, after the Federal Reserve slowed down rate hikes in March 2023, Bitcoin soared 12% within two weeks.

• Slowing balance sheet reduction acts as indirect liquidity injection:

The Federal Reserve has reduced the size of its balance sheet from $25 billion per month to $5 billion, effectively injecting liquidity. Historical data shows that after each slowdown in balance sheet reduction, Bitcoin's price has averaged an 18% increase.

2. Expectations for BOJ rate hikes are rising, which could lead to short-term impacts in the cryptocurrency market.

• Inflation surges forcing policy shifts:

The Bank of Japan's latest forecast indicates that core CPI could exceed 3% in 2025, suggesting that the ultra-low interest rate policy may end sooner than expected. If Japan raises interest rates, carry trades (borrowing yen to buy high-yield assets) will be unwound on a large scale, leading to capital flowing back from cryptocurrencies to yen, potentially triggering a price correction in the short term. For example, after Japan's first interest rate hike in 2024, Bitcoin's price briefly fell by 8%.

• Bidirectional risks under policy gaming:

If the Bank of Japan maintains an accommodative stance, yen depreciation may prompt capital to flow into cryptocurrencies for safety; however, if rate hikes are implemented, global liquidity contraction pressures will intensify. On-chain data indicates that Japanese investors account for 12% of global cryptocurrency trading volume, and their movements directly affect market sentiment.

3. The Bank of England is set to cut rates by 25 basis points, impacting the cryptocurrency market due to pound volatility.

• Clear rate cut expectations, asset diversion effects on the pound:

The market expects the Bank of England to cut rates by 25 basis points this week and may remove the 'gradual' rate cut guidance. If the pound weakens, some capital may flow into cryptocurrencies; however, if UK economic data exceeds expectations and the rate cut is less than anticipated, the pound's rebound could suppress risk assets. For example, after the UK cut rates in November 2024, Bitcoin's price rose by 7% within a week.

• Fiscal policy disruption expectations:

The UK's autumn budget may push up inflation. If the central bank delays rate cuts as a result, it could trigger market concerns about a global easing cycle.

4. CPI below expectations: a trigger for rate cuts or a smokescreen?

• Cooling inflation strengthens the logic for rate cuts:

The US May CPI annual rate of 2.4% was below expectations, providing a 'safety net' for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Historical data shows that when CPI falls below expectations, Bitcoin's average increase over the next three months reaches 27%. For example, after the May 2025 CPI release, Bitcoin's price approached $110,000 within a single day.

• Beware of policy reversal risks:

If inflation rebounds later, the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts. For instance, Trump's tariff policies might raise import costs, leading to a resurgence in inflation.

5. Price predictions for cryptocurrencies: short-term frenzy vs. long-term game.

• Optimist: Bitcoin aims for $115,000:

If the Federal Reserve's dot plot clearly outlines a rate cut path, combined with Japan maintaining an accommodative stance, Bitcoin may break through $115,000. Options market data shows that open interest in June call options has reached a three-month high.

• Conservatives: Beware of a $100,000 correction:

If Japan's rate hikes are implemented or if the UK's rate cuts fall short of expectations, Bitcoin may retreat to $100,000. On-chain data shows that short-term holders (STH) have begun to take profits, with selling pressure gradually increasing.

Conclusion: Seize policy dividends and manage risk hedging.

This week's interest rate decision will be a 'life-or-death moment' for the cryptocurrency market—dovish signals from the Federal Reserve could ignite a bull market, while rate hikes from the Bank of Japan could trigger a sell-off. For investors, it is advisable to allocate Bitcoin as a 'policy hedging tool', but stop-loss measures must be in place: for example, if Bitcoin falls below $98,000, decisive action is needed.

Comment section bets: Do you think Bitcoin will rise above $110,000 or fall below $100,000 this week? Like, follow, and share with your friends you want to get rich with!#特朗普比特币金库