Breaking! The Federal Reserve has kept rates steady for four consecutive times but hides secrets: maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, while cutting the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4%, and inflation expectations soaring to 3%. The dot plot also shows a halved interest rate cut in 2026! This wave of 'steady interest rates + weak growth + high inflation' is intensifying the battle between bulls and bears in the crypto market!

Short-term rate cut expectations: Sweet or bitter?

The market's expectations for two rate cuts in 2025 have partially materialized; theoretically, liquidity easing could support coin prices. However, the significant reduction in the expected rate cut in 2026, along with seven officials opposing a rate cut in 2025, is shaking confidence in long-term easing. The worst fear is that the Fed continues to shift from dovish to hawkish, triggering sell-offs directly.

Economic expectations turning: Where will safe-haven funds go?

Lower GDP forecast + higher inflation expectations may trap the US economy in 'stagflation'. Traditional safe-haven assets (like gold) may attract funds, putting the 'digital gold' attribute of the crypto market to the test. However, on-chain data shows that large funds are still quietly hoarding Bitcoin, with some using it as a tool to hedge against policy uncertainty, making the bulls and bears' divergence quite evident.

Policy and geopolitical landmines: Hawkish + regulation + conflict

With more hawkish officials in the Federal Reserve by 2025, the actual number of rate cuts may be fewer than expected; when the situation in the Middle East becomes tense, Bitcoin is likely to fall below key levels; although the US stablecoin regulation bill hasn't exploded, the long-term constraints are still in place, making it difficult for the crypto market to surge.

Next, keep a close eye on these two variables:

1. Will the first rate cut start in September 2025? 2. Will policy take a sharp turn after Powell's departure? Currently, Bitcoin at 106,000 is a critical resistance level; falling below 100,000 could be worse. Should one try to bottom fish or run away?

This 'shock bomb' from the Federal Reserve has put the crypto market at a crossroads. How will it proceed? Quickly discuss in the comments, share with your crypto friends, and like and follow to seize opportunities at the first moment! #美联储FOMC会议