Breaking! Under the shadow of US-Iran conflict, how will Bitcoin move after a sharp drop?

Geopolitical crises are stirring waves in the crypto market again. News of possible US military action against Iran triggered a short-term plunge in Bitcoin, but multiple factors determine that the long-term trend still holds uncertainties:

1. Historical Experience: Rebounds Often Follow Short-term Panic

The impact of geopolitical conflicts on Bitcoin shows a pattern of 'first drop, then rise'. In 2020, when the US military struck Iran, Bitcoin initially fell but rebounded due to the Federal Reserve's easing policies; during the 2025 Iran-Israel conflict, the price dropped below $103,000 and quickly recovered, indicating that panic selling is often corrected by policy expectations or safe-haven demand.

2. Institutional Support: The Core Force for Market Stability

Institutional funds have become the 'keel' for Bitcoin. Net inflows into spot ETFs exceeded $46 billion, with giants like BlackRock continuing to increase their holdings, and $3 billion in over-the-counter (OTC) transactions providing liquidity to the market. Standard Chartered predicts that by the end of 2025, Bitcoin prices could soar to $200,000, driven by halving scarcity and macroeconomic improvements.

3. Federal Reserve Policies: Key Variable for Price Movements

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are a 'double-edged sword': currently maintaining rates but with divided expectations for rate cuts. High rates suppress risk appetite, but if conflicts lead to recession fears, a preemptive rate cut would be beneficial for Bitcoin. Additionally, tariff policies could push up inflation, indirectly affecting monetary policy direction.

4. Technical Analysis and Sentiment: Indicators of Short-term Volatility

Key support levels are at $101,000 and $75,000, with resistance levels at $96,000-$109,000. Current market sentiment is 'greedy' (fear index at 71), but caution is needed as geopolitical risks may trigger a correction. The RSI indicator shows short-term overbought conditions, which may face technical adjustments.

5. Iranian Countermeasures: A Catalyst for Risk Escalation

If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, soaring oil prices will exacerbate global economic uncertainty, putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin, but its long-term anti-inflation attributes may attract capital. Historical data show that during similar crises, Bitcoin prices often rise due to inflation expectations.

Conclusion: Short-term Fluctuations Do Not Change Long-term Logic

If conflict breaks out, Bitcoin may initially drop before rising again, with institutional buying and policy changes being key to any rebound. Long-term, the duration of the conflict, Federal Reserve policy, and the intensity of institutional buying will determine the trend. Investors need to closely monitor developments and adjust their positions based on risk tolerance.

In the face of geopolitical turmoil, do you think Bitcoin can become 'digital gold'? Leave a comment to discuss!