๐๏ธ Date: June 13, 2025
๐ฐ Current Price: $103,574.42 (-4.56%)
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๐ Key Changes vs Previous
๐ Dropped ~$5.4K from $108,318
โ Broke below EMA(25) & EMA(7)
๐ Volume weak: 10.2K BTC < 5-day avg 15.6K BTC
โ ๏ธ RSI at 35.25 โ oversold, but no bullish divergence
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๐ Technical Breakdown
๐ป Bearish Signals
Price collapsed below key supports: $107.8K & $105.5K
EMA(7) < EMA(25) โ death cross active
RSI 35.25 โ oversold, but momentum still negative
Weak volume = exhaustion selling or trap setup
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๐งฑ Support & Resistance Zones
Support Levels
$102,664 (24h low)
$100,000 (psychological)
$96,513 (major support zone)
Resistance Levels
$105,500 (EMA 25)
$106,253 (EMA 7)
$108,566 (24h high)
๐ฏ Breakdown Target: $91,018
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๐ฎ Price Prediction
โณ Next 12โ24 Hours
๐ฅ Base Case (60%): Retest $102,664 โ break โ $100,000
๐ฉ Bounce Case (40%): RSI oversold bounce โ $105,000 โ $105,500
๐๏ธ 3-Day Outlook
โ Daily close <$100,000 = bearish continuation
โ Reclaim >$105,500 = trend reversal potential
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๐ง Trade Plan
โก Immediate Trades (Next 4h)
1. Aggressive Long (Oversold Bounce)
Entry: $102,700โ$103,000
Target: $104,500 โ $105,000
Stop: $102,500
Trigger: RSI >38 + 1h bullish close
2. Short Scalp (Failed Bounce)
Entry: $104,000
Target: $103,000 โ $102,664
Stop: $104,500
Confirm: 15m close < $103,800
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๐ Swing Trades
1. Breakdown Short
Entry: $102,600
Target: $100,000 โ $98,000
Stop: $103,000
Confirm: 4h candle close < $102,500
2. Relief Rally Short
Entry: $105,300
Target: $103,500 โ $102,000
Stop: $105,800
Trigger: RSI <40 reversal at resistance
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๐ก๏ธ Risk Management
Position Size: โค1.5% capital
Take Profit:
Long: 50% at $104,000, 50% at $104,500
Short: 50% at $102,000, 50% at $100,500
Stop Loss: Max 0.8% risk per trade
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โ๏ธ Critical Triggers
- BEARISH CONFIRMATION:
! 4h close < $102,664
! RSI stays under 35
! Volume > 20K BTC on breakdown
! Widening EMA(7) < EMA(25)
+ BULLISH REVERSAL:
! RSI > 45 with price holding
! Bullish divergence on 1h MACD
! 4h close > $105,500
! Volume surge > 18K BTC
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โ Summary
BTC/USDT shows capitulation breakdown, but oversold bounce is possible:
๐ Key Resistance: $105,500 (must reclaim to shift trend)
โ ๏ธ Key Support: $102,664 (loss = $100K test)
๐ง Best Setups:
1. Aggressive long near $102,700
2. Breakdown short below $102,600
3. Short relief rally at $105,300
๐ซ Avoid heavy longs until RSI flips >40 and volume confirms reversal
๐ฏ Exit 50% at $104,000 if long โ protect gains in high volatility
Trade From here ๐ $BTC
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