$BTC 🗓️ Date: June 13, 2025
💰 Current Price: $103,574.42 (-4.56%)
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🔍 Key Changes vs Previous
📉 Dropped ~$5.4K from $108,318
❌ Broke below EMA(25) & EMA(7)
📊 Volume weak: 10.2K BTC < 5-day avg 15.6K BTC
⚠️ RSI at 35.25 → oversold, but no bullish divergence
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📈 Technical Breakdown
🔻 Bearish Signals
Price collapsed below key supports: $107.8K & $105.5K
EMA(7) < EMA(25) → death cross active
RSI 35.25 → oversold, but momentum still negative
Weak volume = exhaustion selling or trap setup
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🧱 Support & Resistance Zones
Support Levels
$102,664 (24h low)
$100,000 (psychological)
$96,513 (major support zone)
Resistance Levels
$105,500 (EMA 25)
$106,253 (EMA 7)
$108,566 (24h high)
🎯 Breakdown Target: $91,018
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🔮 Price Prediction
⏳ Next 12–24 Hours
🟥 Base Case (60%): Retest $102,664 → break → $100,000
🟩 Bounce Case (40%): RSI oversold bounce → $105,000 → $105,500
🗓️ 3-Day Outlook
❌ Daily close <$100,000 = bearish continuation
✅ Reclaim >$105,500 = trend reversal potential
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🧠 Trade Plan
⚡ Immediate Trades (Next 4h)
1. Aggressive Long (Oversold Bounce)
Entry: $102,700–$103,000
Target: $104,500 → $105,000
Stop: $102,500
Trigger: RSI >38 + 1h bullish close
2. Short Scalp (Failed Bounce)
Entry: $104,000
Target: $103,000 → $102,664
Stop: $104,500
Confirm: 15m close < $103,800
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🔄 Swing Trades
1. Breakdown Short
Entry: $102,600
Target: $100,000 → $98,000
Stop: $103,000
Confirm: 4h candle close < $102,500
2. Relief Rally Short
Entry: $105,300
Target: $103,500 → $102,000
Stop: $105,800
Trigger: RSI <40 reversal at resistance
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🛡️ Risk Management
Position Size: ≤1.5% capital
Take Profit:
Long: 50% at $104,000, 50% at $104,500
Short: 50% at $102,000, 50% at $100,500
Stop Loss: Max 0.8% risk per trade
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⚙️ Critical Triggers
- BEARISH CONFIRMATION:
! 4h close < $102,664
! RSI stays under 35
! Volume > 20K BTC on breakdown
! Widening EMA(7) < EMA(25)
+ BULLISH REVERSAL:
! RSI > 45 with price holding
! Bullish divergence on 1h MACD
! 4h close > $105,500
! Volume surge > 18K BTC
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✅ Summary
BTC/USDT shows capitulation breakdown, but oversold bounce is possible:
🔐 Key Resistance: $105,500 (must reclaim to shift trend)
⚠️ Key Support: $102,664 (loss = $100K test)
🧠 Best Setups:
1. Aggressive long near $102,700
2. Breakdown short below $102,600
3. Short relief rally at $105,300
🚫 Avoid heavy longs until RSI flips >40 and volume confirms reversal
🎯 Exit 50% at $104,000 if long – protect gains in high volatility
Trade From here 👉
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