China and the United States negotiated desperately for 48 hours in London, temporarily pressing the nuclear button of the trade war, but the fuse is still burning, and August 10 is the life and death line!
Temporary painkillers:
The United States loosened its grip on rare earths.
China also let go a little, allowing Shenzhen rare earth companies to export again.
The most ruthless thing is the big drop in tariffs!
The punitive tariffs imposed by the United States on China were cut from 145% to 30%, and China’s tariffs on the United States were reduced from 125% to 10%. This is definitely a big step for both sides to make concessions!
BUT! There is a time bomb hanging over the head:
August 10 is the deadline!
If the negotiations cannot be concluded before then, all the tariffs that have been reduced will be raised back with a "boom", or even more ruthless! How can this be an agreement? It is simply a postponed explosion!
Ceasefire on the surface, stab in the back:
The United States is shady: the ban on chips and aircraft equipment against China remains unchanged, and it also boasts that the court supports its 34% "standard" tariff. I think it is just a delaying tactic, and the big stick will be swung down at any time!
China is not scared: Exports to the US plummeted by 34.5% in May, a record low. The trade war is indeed painful. But we have the trump card of rare earths, forcing the US to come back for talks. This is a tough hand!
The world is scared:
The World Bank lowered its global growth forecast for next year to a dismal 2.3% overnight.
European Central Bank President Lagarde shouted: If the war continues, the global economy will go directly to the ICU!
The EU, Japan, Mexico and other countries, especially those engaged in aircraft, begged the United States to "stop shooting"! The market is really scared!
Experts said:
This is a "Syrian ceasefire" - as fragile as a piece of paper!
The deep-seated contradictions have not been resolved at all. It all depends on the leaders' faces. They can turn their faces at any time. I completely agree that this "peace" is too unreliable!
The market is crazy:
Rare earth stocks are soaring, and related companies in Shenzhen are like printing money.
The strange decline of the US dollar exposes the market's insecurity.
American companies are split: On the one hand, they shout "Long live probation", and on the other hand, they secretly stock up to prevent the explosion in August! This is a stark proof that no one believes this ceasefire can last!
My ultimate judgment:
Trump’s tariff cannon has been loaded and is waiting to fire on August 10!
Beijing holds the rare earth card and will definitely fight back if pressed.
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