Geopolitical Conflicts and the Historical Logic Chain of the Crypto Market
When war breaks out, crypto assets often exhibit a regular chain reaction. Historical data reveals a clear path:
Phase Evolution Model
1. Panic Sell-Off Period (1-3 days)
• 2022 Russia-Ukraine Conflict: BTC plummeted by 8-10% in a single day
• 2023 Israel-Palestine Conflict: Initial decline of 3-5% (market resilience strengthens)
• Essentially a short-term liquidity squeeze
2. Value Discovery Period (3-7 days)
• 2022 Case: 30% rebound wave begins the day after the crash
• 2023 Case: BTC breaks previous high after 5 days
• Demand for capital flight from risk overcomes panic sentiment
3. New Balance Construction Period (1 week+)
• Crypto assets gradually exhibit "digital gold" attributes
• On-chain data becomes a monitor for capital flow
Key Observation Points in Current Middle Eastern Situation
• Conflict Scale Threshold: Proxy wars (such as Houthi attacks on ships) and full-scale wars (Iran's involvement) have a tenfold impact on the market
• Energy Transmission Effect: Crude oil prices breaking $90 will trigger a shift in inflation expectations
• On-Chain Indicators Anchoring:
◦ Surge in Bitcoin futures open contracts (＞30%)
◦ High frequency of large Tether transfers on-chain (＞$10 million/transaction)
Historical experience shows that the biggest cognitive trap during geopolitical crises is mistaking short-term fluctuations for the end of a trend. While most focus on missile trajectories, professional investors are monitoring:
1) Global stablecoin on-chain liquidity
2) Changes in miner holdings
3) CME futures premium structure
Ultimately, what dominates the market is whether geopolitical turmoil fundamentally alters the core value proposition of crypto assets—the backup value of decentralized settlement networks when traditional finance fails. War has never destroyed the crypto economy; it has only accelerated the game between the new and old orders.
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