📈 1. Current Price State

BTC is trading around 105,800 USD, after reaching a daily high of 106,368 USD and a low of 105,110 USD.

The technical pattern is a symmetrical triangle with resistance between 105,800–106,900 USD and support at 105,000 USD reflecting a consolidation phase.

🏦 2. Flows and Institutionalization

In April-May, Bitcoin ETFs in the US captured 5.24 billion USD, contributing to upward pressure.

However, the same institutional ETFs saw a 23% drop in holdings in Q1-2025 (from 27.4 billion to 21.2 billion USD), partly due to price correction and also profit-taking.

Bitfinex analysts project that BTC could reach 115,000 USD by early July, if institutional momentum and rate cut expectations are maintained.

📰 3. Regulatory and Political Impulses

Trump Media submitted an application to launch the 'Truth Social Bitcoin ETF' on NYSE Arca, backed by Crypto.com and Yorkville, along with a massive investment of 2.5 billion USD in BTC.

At the federal level, the Executive Order of March 2025 established a 'Strategic BTC Reserve' with 200,000 BTC confiscated, consolidating BTC as an asset similar to gold.

🧭 4. Technical Risks and Analysis

Technical indicators such as RSI and weekly divergences warn of a possible deep correction, with an accumulation zone between 95,000–100,000 USD.

CoinDesk highlights that, despite the rebound to nearly 104,000 USD, a bearish 'head-and-shoulders' structure persists that has not been invalidated.

🎯 5. And Now What?

Horizon Scenario A (bullish) Scenario B (bearish)

Short term Consolidation in triangular structure and breakout upwards towards 115,000 USD Break below 105,000 USD → drop towards support at 100–95k USD

Medium term Momentum from ETFs and pro-crypto policies could push to 125–130k USD in Q3 General correction of the risk market could sink to 70–80k USD according to betting options

Long term National reserve + massive institutional adoption → active re-rally phase, more than 200k USD? Greater regulation or macro shock could cool the rally and stagnate in lower ranges

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❓ Question for Reflection

In an environment with strong institutional adoption, new pro-Bitcoin policies, and palpable technical risk… do you think BTC will break upwards and reach 125,000 USD, or is it more likely that we will see a significant correction soon?

#MarketPullback #TrumpTariffs #CircleIPO #SouthKoreaCryptoPolicy $BTC