1. Market Context
Current price: USD 2,647.44 (intraday range: 2,482.65–2,648.44), slight rise ●
Technical trend: positive market; “Strong Buy” signals on moving averages and various oscillators.
Bullish pressure: recent rejection at the USD 2,600 resistance in a "rising wedge" pattern.
Institutional interest: strong accumulation despite consolidation, ETFs and large investments.
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2. Technical Analysis
Moving Averages (MA):
All major MAs (5/10/20/50/100/200) indicate buy.
Oscillators: RSI (~79) and MACD indicate overbought, although confirming strong trend.
Candlestick / Price Pattern: structure in “rising wedge”—normally bearish—with rejection at USD 2,600 suggesting consolidation or correction.
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3. Entry and Exit Plan
🟢 Buy on Trend (Trend Following)
Entry: At daily close above USD 2,680 (breakout), confirming resistance break and continuation of trend.
Stop-Loss (SL): 2–4% below entry point (~USD 2,580–2,625), depending on ATR volatility (~23 USD).
Target (TP):
Short-term: beyond USD 2,800 (next psychological resistance).
Mid-term: USD 3,000 if strong momentum is maintained.
🟡 Buy on Pull-back (Dip Buying)
Entry: between USD 2,550–2,600 (below resistance-turned-support).
SL: ~USD 2,500 (key support limit).
TP:
1st target: USD 2,700–2,750.
2nd target: USD 2,900–3,000 if the breakout occurs.
🔴 Sell on Dips / Moderate Shorts
Entry: on confirmed breakout below USD 2,550 at daily close.
SL: ~USD 2,620–2,640.
TP:
Medium level: USD 2,200 (next support → mentioned action point).
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4. Risk Management
Risk per trade: ≤ 2% of total capital.
Position size:
If risk = 4% (USD 2,600 → USD 2,520), then position = 2% capital ÷ 80 USD (stop)
Active management:
Move SL to “break-even” after reaching 1:1 (e.g., rises from 2,600 to 2,680).
Partially cover before strong resistances.
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5. Complementary Indicators
Volume: bullish outcome if volume >2× MA volume ➝ confirm accumulation.
RSI: consider taking partial profits if RSI >80 and prolonged overbought.
Bollinger Bands: expansion indicates the start of a trend; squeeze may preannounce breakout/breakdown.
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6. Timeframe and Style
Ideal for swing traders (focused on days-weeks).
Complement with intraday analysis (1h–4h) to optimize entry and exit timing.
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7. Summary of the Plan
Strategy Entry Stop-Loss Target
Trend following Daily close > USD 2,680 –2% from entry USD 2,800 → USD 3,000
Dip buying USD 2,550–2,600 USD 2,500 USD 2,700 → USD 2,900
Sale by breakout Daily close < USD 2,550 ~USD 2,620 USD 2,200
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8. Additional Notes
Stay alert to results and announcements during EthCC (June 30 – July 3) that could impact volatility.
Keep an eye on institutional position and ETF flows, given their effect on liquidity and market direction.
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🧭 Conclusion
ETH momentum seems favorable, but current consolidation and overbought conditions suggest caution. This plan offers three strategies (trend, dip, short) with clear rules for entry, SL, TP, and risk management. Adjust sizes and levels according to your risk profile, and stay alert to changes in structure or volatility to adapt your decisions.
#Ethereum #Spot #MarketRebound #BinanceAlphaAlert $ETH
