1. 📌 Current Context
ETH price is around $2,513, with an intraday range between $2,469 and $2,522.
Net inflows in spot ETFs reached $321–700M last week, reflecting strong institutional demand.
ETH balances on exchanges are near their lowest level in 7 years, a sign of long-term accumulation.
At the recent support of $2,584–2,600, ETH rebounded with considerable volume (V-shape).
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2. 🎯 Plan Objectives
Primary objective: Leverage support-resistance structure between $2,500–2,550 and $2,650–2,700.
Horizon: Short to medium term (days to weeks).
Trading profile: Conservative swing trader, with active risk management.
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3. ⚙️ Technical Market Structure
Maintains upward channel: dynamic support level near $2,600–2,615.
Immediate resistance detected between $2,645–2,650, next relevant level towards $2,700.
Consolidation is also observed in the short term between $2,460–2,520–2,575.
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4. 🔍 Entry Setup
Accumulation buy:
Optimal level: $2,580–2,600, near light support and short-term moving average.
Confirmation with rebound and volume increase (> intraday average).
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5. 🛑 Risk Management – Stop Loss
Stop level: $2,550, just below key accumulation support.
Risk taken per trade: ~2–3% (will depend on position size).
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6. 🎯 Profit Objectives
Primary target: $2,645–2,650 (immediate resistance).
Secondary target: $2,700 (possible major resistance area).
If it breaks $2,700 with volume, look to extend to $2,750–2,800.
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7. 📈 Scaling and Additional Entries
If ETH surpasses $2,650 with high volume, open second partial position (~50% of the initial size).
Raise the stop of the first position to break-even ($2,600).
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8. 🔄 Position Management and Exits
Secure profits near $2,645–2,650: sell 50–70%.
Hold the rest if a breakout is confirmed with a subsequent target.
Stop adjusted to higher lows (e.g., level of the second rebound).
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9. ⏱ Timeframe and Reviews
Review every 4 hours to observe consolidation or breakout.
If ETH falls below $2,550, exit or partially close to preserve capital.
If it holds above $2,600 and volume increases, extend holding with dynamic stop.
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10. 🧩 Macro and On-Chain Factors
Spot ETF: strong inflows ($321–700M) provide considerable support.
Low reserves on exchanges imply scarcity and bullish potential.
Macro risk: Treasury and USD volatility may affect corrections, but on-chain quotes and technical support make the plan viable.
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PLAN SUMMARY
Stage Key level/s
Initial entry $2,580–2,600
Stop loss $2,550
Partial target $2,645–2,650
Extended target $2,700, possible $2,750–2,800
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📝 Conclusion
This plan combines technical signals (supports and resistances confirmed by volume), strong fundamentals (ETF and reserve inflation), and risk discipline. It is adaptable: scale if a breakout is confirmed, and control losses if it weakens.
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