Forecast of BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Bullish and Bearish Factors:

* Bullish: Expectation of a weaker US dollar (Morgan Stanley), corporate accumulation (Reitar/Strategy), progress on stablecoin legislation.

* Bearish: Continued outflow of ETF funds, uncertainty in pension policy implementation, strong resistance at $108,000 on the technical front.

Probability Distribution (based on event weight and technical analysis):

* Upward (greater than $107,000): 30% → Need ETF funds to flow back or the dollar index to break below 104.

* Fluctuation ($104,000–$107,000): 50% → Market sentiment dominated by a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, waiting for unemployment data on June 5.

* Downward (less than $104,000): 20% → If ETF net outflow exceeds 10,000 BTC in a single day or if tech stocks in the US market correct.

Key Levels: Support at $104,000 (extension of yesterday's low), resistance at $107,000 (previous high psychological level).

💡 Operation Suggestions

1. Short-term: Light positions and wait, focus on the rotation opportunity of ETH/BTC exchange rate (ETH ETF has seen a net inflow for 9 consecutive days).

2. Event Tracking:

* June 5: US Initial Jobless Claims data (affecting interest rate cut expectations);

* Senate voting dynamics on the GENIUS Act.

3. Risk Warning: Trump's tariff policy may boost inflation, weakening the favorable impact of US dollar depreciation on BTC.

The market fluctuates in the tug-of-war between policy and fund flows; maintaining stability above $104,000 indicates that the mid-term trend is not damaged.