Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Key Drivers for Bullish and Bearish Sentiment:

* Bullish: Expectations for Trump’s policy warming up, narrative of corporate buybacks spreading, weak dollar (Morgan Stanley is bearish by 9%).

* Bearish: Follow-up effect from BlackRock's sell-off, tough regulatory stance from Biden's camp, strong technical resistance at $107,000.

Probability Distribution (Based on Event Overlay Technical Analysis):

* Fluctuation ($104,500–$107,000): 50% → A tug-of-war dominated by bullish and bearish sentiment under the policy stalemate, waiting for non-farm payroll data guidance.

* Uptrend (>$107,000): 30%

* Downtrend (<$104,500): 20% → If BlackRock continues to sell or if ISM non-manufacturing PMI deteriorates beyond expectations.

Key Levels:

* Support Level: $104,500 (extension of the June 3 low)

* Resistance Level: $107,000 (daily Bollinger mid-band + psychological barrier)

💡 Trading Strategy

1. Short-term:

* Mainly wait and see, if it breaks below $104,500, can try long with a light position (stop-loss at $103,800);