Bitcoin (BTC) is making waves once again! On May 19, 2025, the price broke through $107,000, and the market cap soared to $2.1 trillion, reaching an all-time high. Notable cryptocurrency analyst Scott Melker poured cold water on the situation: despite Bitcoin recording the highest daily and weekly closing prices, bearish divergence signals have emerged, and the market is cooling off from overheating. Monday's performance is crucial. Interestingly, Melker previously predicted Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by the end of 2025! Is this a bubble driven by market euphoria, or a well-founded new starting point?
Glassnode data shows that from May 10 to May 18, the number of wallets holding more than 1 BTC increased by 15%, with both institutions and retail investors accelerating their entry. The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) rose 5% to $28.50, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $50 billion, and market activity is booming. MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor, a staunch Bitcoin supporter, predicts Bitcoin could reach $1 million in the next decade, and his company has accumulated 568,840 BTC, worth approximately $59 billion. Financial writer Robert Kiyosaki also called out that the U.S. may launch a strategic Bitcoin reserve, driving the price to reach $250,000 within the year. However, behind the frenzy, Crypto Rover's warning of the 'Sunday Scam Pump' phenomenon reminds us that the market may harbor manipulation risks.
Melker's technical analysis raises concerns: Bitcoin's RSI is overbought, and bearish divergence has appeared across multiple time frames. If it cannot break through the key resistance level on Monday, a short-term correction may be on the way. NewsBTC data shows that Bitcoin is fluctuating between $103,000 and $105,000, with unclear short-term trends. However, in the long term, Investtech points out that the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are continuing to rise, and the MACD remains bullish, solidifying the upward trend. CoinShares expert James Butterfill predicts that Bitcoin may exceed $150,000 in 2025. While the $250,000 target has technical support, short-term volatility could delay this goal.
The supply-demand logic is the hard-core support for Bitcoin's rise. Under the halving effect, Bitcoin's annual inflation rate has fallen below 1.5%, while global inflationary pressures have highlighted its safe-haven properties. The 'supply shock' mentioned by Saylor is fermenting, with only 19.7 million in circulation, while demand is surging as institutions enter the market. In 2025, U.S. regulatory policies are becoming clearer, with favorable developments fueling price increases. Overall, the $250,000 target is expected in the long term, but in the short term, it is constrained by technical adjustments and macro fluctuations, with $150,000 to $180,000 being more likely in 2025, and possibly closer to this target in 2026.
